2017 Astros Minor League Thread

Tough to compare their raw numbers as O'Neill was in an era that league average was 15-16 K%.

Fisher could be a guy that gives team a good OBP, some power, but not elite, and not a black hole defensively. I'm not thinking Fisher will be an elite SB threat. If Fisher can make enough contact, he could be a decent OF (think non-peak O'Neill).

 

Snake is usually on the generous side of prospecting, speaking in 100% projections. Even if guys have the raw tools to do something, real life game skills rarely max out to raw tool levels. If that weren't the case, then Chris Carter would be knocking 60+ HR's a year.

Not trying to be a debbie downer, I've just seen things like raw speed/minor league SB numbers not translate in the majors. It's not easy to steal a base in the majors anymore. Speed is a helpful, but even more so you just have to be a damn good baserunner. Fisher's never put up more than 31 SB's in a minor league season, he hasn't shown it to be an elite skill in the past. Springer is my classic example of raw speed/minor league numbers not translating.

Fangraphs actually put's Fisher's power ceiling in the exact neighborhood as Paul O'Neil's actual career. They put a 60 raw grade on his power, which according to their objective tool grades, equals 23-27 HR's. O'neil's 162g average was 22 HR and his peak season was 28 HR's.

ADDENDUM*
Not trying to Snake can't or shouldn't be on the optimistic side of prospecting, let's be real. Fisher (and the Astros) would be damn lucky if he put up even 1-2 seasons like Paul O'Neils avg, much less peak. He was a really really good ball player.

 

There was zero context, because **** twitter. I'm sure the guy was talking about something that he saw, I have no idea what, but something other than the fact that Fisher would look good with a perm.

Maybe he promised 2 HRs...?

eta...dammit, bobrek.

eta2: my Hall of Really Freaking Good favorites in the OF from the ~90's era was Alou/Lofton/O'Neill (RF is debatable). So that's why I even mentioned it in the first place.

 

Heyman? Really? Mea Culpa.

What is my pennance?

 

He look ok.

 

What it is, what it be.

 

Nice catch by the little fat kid.

 

Wonder if some intrepid prospect splashed water in his face at the end of the dugout.

 

Trent Thornton promoted to AAA.

 

A month is in the books:

Spoiler

AAA:
There really aren't any meaningful position player prospects in Fresno that had a bad month (although White is off to a bit of a rough start), and several players are off to hot starts. Moran and Stassi has good finishes to end up in a decent place. Moran is actually performing quite a bit better this season than he did in AAA last year, and he's walked more than he struck out. Tucker, Hernandez, Kemmer, and Fisher all had great Aprils. Kemmer and Tucker have likely benefitted from some good luck, while Hernandez's numbers are even more impressive when you factor in his BABIP. Fisher is really putting himself in position to be looked at as a future everyday big leaguer. Reed hasn't done anything to move his needle one way or the other.

Pitching is hard to evaluate because the samples are less meaningful and players may be focusing on a weakness, so it's too early to judge any pitcher with bad numbers. That said, Holmes, Yuhl, and Guduan have disappointed. Perhaps no pitcher in the system has raised his stock more than Kevin Comer. He has thrived in the bullpen. Perez, Jankwoski, and Hoyt have thrown well. Martes has put up a frightening walk rate, but could just be tinkering. Finally, Sean Stutzmann is one to watch. He was called up to AA from EST a few weeks ago, then quickly moved up to AAA. He's a lefty with an odd delivery, so maybe Houston plans to rush him up and give him a few innings until hitters figure him out. I'm anxious to see how Trent Thornton does in AAA (great underlying numbers in AA, **** ERA), and Ryan Thompson is worth keeping an eye on (also recently promoted).

AA:
Ramon Laureano is the lone hitter off to a bad start, but he's still making a ton of contact, and with better BABIP outcomes his numbers would be a ton better. Garrett Stubbs has been on fire since returning from injury a few weeks ago, and if he keeps this up he will be a 55 grade prospect in AAA. JD Davis is the other player dominating AA. Room will soon have to be created for him in Fresno, and he looks like a guy who should be able to have a long career, especially if he looks serviceable in the outfield (he's been getting time there).

Deetz and Armenteros are the two guys who have broken out on the pitching side. It's only a handful of appearances, but both have dominated AA. Josh James has also raised his stock. Cy Sneed is the one guy who hasn't met expectations. Akeem Bostick earned a promotion to Corpus and could quickly become one of the hottest prospects in the system with a good May. Riley Ferrell was also moved up to AA and could move quickly.

High A:
BC has its fair share of hitters with disappointing Aprils (Duarte and Martin are off to brutal seasons). However their most important prospect, Kyle Tucker, has done well and is cementing himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. I was really hoping for more from Anibal Sierra.

Franklin Perez continues to shine. Yoanys Quiala is a little old for his level but was a big money signee and has dominated High A so far (10.7k/9, 1.53bb/9). I expected Elieser Hernandez to do much better, but he's been pretty bad. Hector Perez and Carlos Sierra are two recently promoted pitchers I will be watching. Winkelman and Nick Hernandez are both probably ready for AA, and we won't really be able to guess how good they are until they get there.

A:
All the hitters in Quad Cities are kicking ass. With better BABIP luck Cameron would be getting tons of hype, instead he's being labeled a bust. I fully expect him to do well over the course of the season and be on some Top 100 lists by August. So many other guys are killing this league: Rogers, Wrenn, Dawson, Almonte, De Goti, Johnson, Cesar...insane offensive production from this team so far, which is exciting since a few of those guys have very high ceilings. Wrenn is my sleeper guy and I can't wait to see him in BC. Rogers early numbers appear to be legit, and if he can just show enough offense not to be a total liability he could be a decent starting catcher. It's only 42 pa but damn Almonte is looking like Babe Ruth.

The QC pitching staff has great ERAs across the board but the underlying numbers for a lot of them are scary. Whitley has looked great in only 2 appearances. Brett Adcock is one who looks legit, and I think Carson LaRue is very underrated.

All in all, a solid start across the board, and nothing about April has changed my opinion that this is a very deep system. There is going to have to be some movement on the position player side as a few important prospects appear ready to move up, and AAA doesn't have any openings in the lineup.