I don't care about systems or semantics. I just want good players. 2/3 of good MLB players make Top 100 lists. As such, I'm only going to care about the top 100 prospects and the next 100 guys most likely to become a Top 100 prospect or bypass the Top 100 lists straight to the majors. Other than in the Top 10, tiers of prospects for rankings don't change too much from year to year (i.e. a ~50-100 prospect one year is about as likely to provide similar expected value for a ~50-100 prospect another year).
At 18, Ronaldo Urdaneta is the youngest player this year in the Astros' system with an OPS above .800 (.847) and was an all-star starter in the DSL this year. He was signed in 2015 for a $60K bonus. He is a middle infielder & outfielder. Not sure why he is still in the DR in his 2nd season (being converted to the OF?), but I'm not sure it is all that suspicious, as young as he is. At 19, Ramiro Rodriguez is the youngest player this year in the Astros system with an OPS above .900 (,940) and also was a starter in the DSL all-star game this year. He is an outfielder in his 2nd pro season and got promoted to the GCL in mid-august. Neither guy is highly touted. But both show potential
Top 100ish guys for next season: Whitley Tucker Bukauskas Alvarez Moran Next 100ish guys: Hector Perez Corbin Martin I'm sure other guys could argue to be in the top 200 (Cionel Perez, Jason Martin, Armenteros, Deetz, Celestino), but I'd feel comfortable saying those guys are in the top 200 prospects in baseball, and a handful of young talent that could jump. It isn't what it was, but it is still solid
My early-bound-to-look-stupid prediction for end of 2018 prospect lists: Whitley will be a consensus MLB Top 10 prospect. Bukauskas will be a consensus MLB Top 100 prospect. Alvarez will be a fringe Top 100 prospect. 2 of C Martin, C Perez, Celestino, Toro, Matijevic, J Solis, and H Perez will be in most Top 100s. I'd guess Martin and J Solis if I had to pick which 2. Tucker, Davis, Moran, etc will graduate.
I know what you and several other guys are saying when you say it's still a solid system but focusing solely on the minor league system vs the organization as a whole seems silly to me. I think a better representation of the Astros future (and really any team) is under-25 talent. There is a ridiculous amount of under-25 talent on the club producing major league value (many at an all-star level) and that's way more significant/important than arbitrary ranking of minor league systems. Atlanta has far and away the best overall farm system but our organization is obviously way better quipped for the next decade overall than them.
People talk about parts of the organization all the time. It is no sillier talking about farm systems than comparing the rotation this year versus those in the past. The farm system is not only piece in estimating value future, but it is good for longer term additions to the major league club. I would not call the farm system rankings arbitrary. I see that word used a lot for things that have huge variance, but do have an overall trend. They aren't thrown together whimsically. They are not prefect. They are not close to perfect. Seeing the Angels at or near the bottom of the list the past few years has been accurate as Trout has gotten little to no help from the minors. Top and Bottom 1-4 are typically very extreme and it usually means something really good or really bad. Teams in the middle third are usually more or less interchangeable. On Atlanta, farm system shows they are probably 2-4 years behind the Astros on the rebuild curve.Though on better equipped for the rest of the decade, I'd probably limit that to the next 7 years or so instead of decade. No one would prefer the Braves organization to the Astros organization at the moment for the chance of maybe having slightly more potential at being better 7+ years in the future.
https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2017/09/getting-to-know-astroshooks-rhp-forrest.html Get to know Forrest Whitley.
Cristian Javier was the winning pitcher for Quad Cities tonight: 6 IP, 3 H (solo HR), ER, BB, 6 K Salvador Montano walked 1 and struck out 4 over the last 3 innings to close out the River Bandits' 4-1 win over Peoria in game 2 of their Midwest League 1st-round playoff series.
Nice little shoutout to Jorge Alcala: Spoiler That Buies Creek rotation (Adcock, Alcala, Elieser Hernandez, Whitley, Hector Perez) should essentially be back together in Corpus next year and they're gonna be the must-watch team in the system once again.
If anyone would like to post the ESPN Insider articles about the best Hitting and Pitching Prospects of 2017, that's be totes swell. Forrest Whitley was included in the tease.
3. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros: Whitley was a big-bodied Texas high schooler available in the 2016 draft and taken in the first round. While he had already shown some ability to locate a bevy of solidly big league pitches, Whitley improved his physical conditioning as the draft approached and his stuff ticked up. Now his heat sits in the mid-90s, and he can throw strikes with both his fastball and a fading, above-average changeup while also displaying an ability to locate his short, tight slider to his glove side. Whitley also has a vertical curveball with bat-missing depth and bite. Although his delivery has some violence to it, it's incredible that Whitley is able to locate his entire repertoire at his age, size and sitting velocity. He's just 19 and struck out 11 hitters in a six-inning debut start at Double-A in mid-August.
In Keith Law's article on Minor League Player of the year (Vladimer Guerrero Jr), Whitley was listed as a runner up: Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros • Midseason rank: 36 | Preseason rank: 78 Whitley, the 17th overall pick in the 2016 draft out of a San Antonio high school, ripped through two levels of full-season A-ball and ended up with Double-A Corpus Christi this year, striking out 143 batters in just 92 1/3 innings (38 percent of batters faced) and posting a composite 2.83 ERA across all three levels. The 19-year-old established himself as one of the top four or five pitching prospects in all of baseball this year between his performance, his size, and the three-pitch mix he used to dominate hitters several years his senior.
Tucker and Whitley are more highly rated than any homegrown player on the major league roster were as prospects except Correa and Bregman.
They are pretty similar to Springer's final rankings (BA: 18 MLB: 21 BP: 20) and Martes (BA:15 MLB: 20 BP: 28)
While I'm not as optimistic in the Astros depth as most here, I would be shocked if any of MLB, BA, and BP had Whitley 15 or less (probably about 10th on most) once they get a chance to talk with their team sources in the offseason.
I wouldn't be shocked. Whitley hasn't gotten nearly the kind of national hype that Kopech or some others have gotten. Top 20 seems like a more reasonable cutoff. Being a top 10 overall prospect is basically saying the guy is a #1-#3 overall pitching prospect. I think he probably is but he national recognition tends to lag behind for Astros prospects
BA had Whitley much higher (about 25 spots if memory serves) than Kopech in its midseason list and that was before Whitley laid to waste the A+ and AA levels like no 19-year old has done in the last decade. While the national hype train hasn't taken off for Whitley just yet, I expect it will before the preseason lists are published.
While I think Whitley is a top 10 guy, John Sickels put him at #12 on his updated Top 20 last week. Granted Moncada has lost eligibility since then and Rosario should lose it unless he gets hurt. 2017 Draftees aren't included, but I don't think any of them would jump into the Top 10. So that would be #10 heading into 2018. Whitley could be the top pitching prospect in baseball. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/9/3/16185424/top-20-mlb-prospects-september-2017
Given age and pitch ability I confidently have Whitley ahead of Kopech in my rankings. Kopech has a potential 80 fastball but Whitley's pitch mix and polish is just too good.
Fangraphs had a mid August list that had him 19th. That was just before he got called up to AA. With three guys graduating, that should bring him up to 16. He only had 4 games in AA, but approximately 72% of the time batters in AA K'd, hit a grounder, or popped up to an infielder. I think that should get him at least to the Top 15.
