Respectfully, I think you are overvaluing the combine. If you go to Draft Breakdown and watch a few distilled game tapes of all the names mentioned, the difference in throws they actually take and make on the field should be fairly obvious, especially more than 10 yards downfield. My best case comp would be more like classic Jeff Garcia, where a classic West Coast system that really plays to his strengths will be important to his success. His size is great, but he's significantly slower than Wilson, and if you watch him run, he tries to run over guys and gets tackled like a tailback. That won't go well in the NFL.
Wasn't basing this on the combine really. All three come from spread, shot gun, one read systems. Unfortunately they don't track YAC in college but I would bet that Lynch and Prescott throw very similar numbers from that perspective. This was also the biggest knock with Derek Carr btw. Goff comes from the Leach air raid system which has yet to produce a successful NFL QB despite the incredible numbers this system produces. Not saying Prescott is on the same level as Goff but not sure why coming from a spread is a knock on him but not Goff or Lynch.
I just re-watched the first half of UCLA/Cal. There was one swing pass to the RB, and 2 screens in the entire half. That's like the average series for Mississippi State. They ran their share of quick slants and whatnot, but they also ran more complex plays, and very clearly he progressed to the third read amd turned to the other side of the field several times. He throws mid range passes to the sidelines, and he connects on deep throws. Everything Prescott does is single read, (maybe a second if he doesn't have to turn his head) and then tuck and run. Everything down field is in the center of the field. You can put whatever label you'd like on it, but I am 100% confident in saying that Goff is running a much more complex offense than Prescott. From re-watching a little bit of Lynch, I'll give you the fact that his ability to run through progressions is a bigger concern than I had thought - he is much closer to Prescott in terms of the "quick pass to the first receiver" offense. On the other hand, he still throws the ball a bunch down the field and to the intermediate sidelines accurately and gets completions, and his arm is a tier above Prescott's. Worried that I was seeing something that wasn't there, I ran it through a Google. Apparently, its not just me. Google "Dak Prescott deep accuracy" and you'll find a bunch of pages about how poor his deep accuracy is. Google "Jarred Goff deep accuracy" and you'll find a bunch of pages about why Goff is the best QB in the draft. Sub in Paxton Lynch, and you get generally positive reviews of his deep accuracy. NFL.com - [rquoter] Sacks and usage in run game might be taking a toll. Increase in short pass attempts from 86 to 208 this year reason for higher completion numbers. Accuracy on intermediate and deep throws dropped sharply. [/rquoter] National Football Post - [rquoter] Ball placement and accuracy on mid-range and deep throws is average. Does not play in a very complex offense. Not a real touch passer. [/rquoter] The Huddle Report (?) [rquoter] Dak has improved every year but still struggles with his accuracy when he is on the run, accuracy when coming off his primary receivers and accuracy on the deep ball when he has to put air under his passes. [/rquoter] USA Today - [rquoter] Deep ball accuracy is lacking, touch passing needs a compass [/rquoter] Not saying he can't fix it, but he absolutely needs a ton more work than Goff and Lynch. Another thing that I noticed (not trying to piss you off) was, as good of an athlete as he is, Prescott throws a ton of wobbly ducks when he tries to throw on the run, but I guess if Peyton Manning can get away with it that really isn't a problem. The thing I really like about Prescott is that he's big and strong and proven that he won't be injured a ton - huge issues for Goff and Lynch (after medical red flags at the combine). And despite what a couple of the things above say, it looks to me like he always is spot on throwing it to the receivers between the numbers shoulder high on the throws he's good at - he is consistent on the short stuff. I've seen particularly Hackenberg throw it over guys heads or down around their ankles on little swing passes. Finally, he apparently gets all the "character trait" awards, but obviously I can't speak directly to this.
No, they are trying to figure out between Norv Turner and Rod Marinelli as next head coach when they fire Mularkey next year after going 3-13.
All fair points. I was never saying Prescott is on the same level as Goff or Lynch. Just that if the one knock on Prescott as a first rounder is the system he played in, then the same concerns should be had for Goff and Lynch as potential top 10 pics (more so for Lynch IMO). I like Goff a lot but it's interesting that he is a Top 10 pick without much concern about the system he came out of while guys like Kingsbury, BJ Symons, Sonny Cumbie, were almost undraftable for the same reason back in the day. As far as Prescott's deep ball, yeah it's probably not as nice as Goffs but also Google "Derek Carr deep accuracy" and you'll read the exact same things being said about Prescott.
well duh.... one of the many reasons why goff and lynch will be long gone by 22 and dak could be had in the 2nd maybe even 3rd round. comparing them is pointless unless you compare it against pick availability, value, and potential upside. what i like about dak is the short accuracy as you stated but also his athleticism to eat up yards with his legs. that will serve him well in the beginning as he transitions/learns any nfl offense. it's a nice safety net that will give him time which he very obviously needs. the other guys are average to below average in that regard and will be statues while they learn any playbook.
Despite some of his faults, scouts called Hogan "the most sophisticated QB" based on his play-calling ability, reading the defense, and working the offensive line to his liking. He was compared to Kirk Cousins in terms of being a mid-round pick who could end up being a really good player that is being talked about by many teams. http://www.ruleoftree.com/2016/2/27...nford-quarterback-kevin-hogan-combine-workout
Ladies and Gentlemen, your "Russell Wilson" or "Tom Brady" or "whoever you think is the QB with very little hype but will produce in the NFL" of this draft.
Hogan is interesting. The guy is a winner in a major conference but he is VERY streaky. And when he's bad Hogan he's REALLY bad. Can experience, coaching fix those wild swings?
This past season, his worst game QBR was 24.8 , 1st game of the season vs Northwestern. One of only two losses of the season. Even though his QB was that low, he still completed 57% of his passes. Goff's worst game was a 33.7 QBR and he completed 53% of his passes. Also a loss, in this case to Utah. Hogan's worst comp% game was 52.6, a game where he ran for 112 yards. This was a 2 point win over Washington State Goff's worst comp% game was 43.9, a loss to Oregon. They both played the same competition. Hogan had a better team around him and Goff's offense was more pro-ready so I understand why Goff is a much better prospect. But I won't be surprised if Hogan ends up being a quality starter in the NFL.
