FOR NON-INSIDERS: Keith Law's final mock is up. For those without ESPN Insider, see below: http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2770 Thursday, June 9, 2016 Keith Law's final MLB Mock Draft (4.0) By Keith Law I've talked to so many people, but with the teams at the top all fairly insistent that they haven't decided who they're taking -- including the Phillies with the first pick -- I could keep changing this all night. It's the middle of the night as I type this, and I'm calling it. We will update this over the course of the day as more info comes in. 1. Philadelphia Phillies Mickey Moniak, OF La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, California) I've heard them with A.J. Puk and Kyle Lewis and to a lesser extent Corey Ray and Blake Rutherford, and I wouldn't be surprised if any of those guys is taken here. It's going to depend on the price tags; if the Phillies can save $1 million by taking the No. 2 player on their board and then apply that money to sign pick 42 to an overslot deal, they'll do so. And they should -- it's exactly what the current CBA encourages teams to do. 2. Cincinnati Reds A.J. Puk, LHP Florida They also like Nick Senzel and Corey Ray, and are also high on Moniak. The Reds have the largest pool of any team (most draft money), and just as importantly, they get to pick again before the Phillies or Braves do. 3. Atlanta Braves Kyle Lewis, OF Mercer If they take Ian Anderson here, which I'm hearing is a very strong possibility, it'll be with an eye toward big spending at picks 40 and 44 on prep players who fell due to signability concerns. 4. Colorado Rockies Riley Pint, RHP St. Thomas Aquinas HS (Overland Park, Kansas) If it's not Pint, it'll be Moniak (if he falls), or maybe Dakota Hudson or Cody Sedlock. 5. Milwaukee Brewers Corey Ray, OF Louisville Delvin Perez had a real chance to go here before his positive PED test, which seems to have dropped him substantially down the board. It seems like Ray would be the pick, over Nick Senzel, and it could be Moniak if he slips to here. 6. Oakland Athletics Nick Senzel, 3B Tennessee Oakland could take Braxton Garrett as well, and they're also a possibility for Jason Groome. 7. Miami Marlins Jason Groome, LHP Barnegat (New Jersey) HS Groome announced the other day that he has recommitted to Chipola Junior College, which would allow him to enter the 2017 draft -- but that class is loaded with college arms and may not be more favorable for him. Braxton Garrett also has been a favorite here for a while, as has Pint. 8. San Diego Padres Braxton Garrett, LHP Florence (Alabama) HS They could go with Garrett or Matt Manning, but don't be surprised to see a college bat here (maybe Ray?) and then have them use later picks to roll the dice on high-upside high school guys like Will Benson. 9. Detroit Tigers Blake Rutherford, OF Chaminade College Prep (West Hills, California) Pint is the guy the Tigers have wanted most of the spring, but if he's not here, they could take Rutherford or Dakota Hudson. I've heard them linked to Zack Burdi, but I think that's based on their old style of drafting college relievers when they picked in the 20s. 10. Chicago White Sox Dakota Hudson, RHP Mississippi State They could also be in on Rutherford or Ray here. I've heard they're unlikely to take Zack Collins. 11. Seattle Mariners Justin Dunn, RHP Boston College I've heard them with college players, and everyone is saying Dunn is their guy. But if a college bat like Ray falls to here, I could see them jumping on them. 12. Boston Red Sox Zack Collins, C Miami They could do Matt Thaiss over Collins, or Rutherford if he gets here, but they seem to have cooled a bit on Nolan Jones. 13. Tampa Bay Rays Gavin Lux, SS Indian Trail Academy (Kenosha, Wisconsin) They've been tied to Lux lately, as well as Rutherford, and I think they're the high mark for Josh Lowe. 14. Cleveland Indians Forrest Whitley, RHP Alamo Heights (San Antonio) HS I've also heard them on Cal Quantrill, who supposedly has five offers in the teens. 15. Minnesota Twins Matt Manning, RHP Sheldon (Sacramento) HS I've also heard them with Hudson and Whitley … mostly with power arms of all stripes. I had had them taking Kyle Muller in an earlier mock, but that now seems unlikely. 16. Los Angeles Angels Alex Kirilloff, OF Plum HS (Pittsburgh) I've also heard them with Matt Thaiss, Hudson and Josh Lowe. 17. Houston Astros Cody Sedlock, RHP Illinois I've heard them possibly taking Whitley too, as well as Eric Lauer and T.J. Zeuch. 18. New York Yankees Ian Anderson, RHP Shenendehowa HS (Clifton Park, New York) This apparently is a stopping point for Anderson, who could go as early as third. They're also in on Kevin Gowdy (who apparently has a huge number out now), Taylor Trammell, Kirilloff and Matt Thaiss. 19. New York Mets Matt Thaiss, C Virginia They're after a college bat and could get Thaiss or Collins, with pitcher Anthony Kay also a possibility if the bats they like are gone. 20. Los Angeles Dodgers Delvin Perez, SS International Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico) Perez is in a freefall after testing positive for a PED, and many teams that previously were on him have backed off or at least reconsidered. The Dodgers have three of the draft's first 36 picks and are in prime position to take on risk like this to get a player who was, at least earlier this spring, considered one of the best tools prospects in the class. I've also heard them with Lux and Sedlock here. 21. Toronto Blue Jays Anthony Kay, LHP Connecticut I've primarily heard them with college arms this week, with Kay and Eric Lauer being possibilities, as well as Sedlock if he's still here. I had previously heard them linked to Lux and Bo Bichette as well. 22. Pittsburgh Pirates Nolan Jones, SS Holy Ghost Prep (Bensalem, Pennsylvania) I've heard them with Taylor Trammell, Zack Burdi and Thaiss as well. 23. St. Louis Cardinals Cal Quantrill, RHP Stanford They're also in on T.J. Zeuch, Thaiss, Drew Mendoza and Will Craig. Compensation picks With the first round being unusually short this year, I'll also predict the sandwich-round selections, the 11 picks awarded to teams that lost free agents who declined qualifying offers. 24. San Diego Padres Josh Lowe, 3B/RHP Pope HS (Marietta, Georgia) They'd love it if Manning got this far for an overslot deal, but that seems unlikely. 25. San Diego Padres Eric Lauer, LHP Kent State They're on Quantrill if he's still here, as well as Florida Gators pitcher Dane Dunning -- the obvious tie being college starters -- and could be on Hudson Sanchez too. 26. Chicago White Sox Zack Burdi, RHP Louisville I was told this is a "lock" if Burdi gets this far. 27. Baltimore Orioles T.J. Zeuch, RHP Pittsburgh I've also heard them with prep infielder Joe Rizzo for a later pick. 28. Washington Nationals Carter Kieboom, IF Walton HS (Marietta, Georgia) They're also on Drew Mendoza if he's signable, as well as Ole Miss outfielder J.B. Woodman, who led the Cape Cod League last summer with 51 strikeouts in 139 plate appearances. 29. Washington Nationals Dane Dunning, RHP Florida Look for them to try to do a deal with Illinois prep outfielder Jordan McFarland with a later pick. 30. Texas Rangers Taylor Trammell, OF Mount Paran Christian (Kennesaw, Georgia) Try to hide your surprise that they might take a Georgia prep outfielder with big tools. They're also linked to Will Benson and Florida center fielder Buddy Reed. 31. New York Mets Bryan Reynolds, OF Vanderbilt I've heard they'd like to get an arm here, but the most likely names are all either gone (Kay, Lauer, Dunning) or unsignable. 32. Los Angeles Dodgers Jordan Sheffield, RHP Vanderbilt I thought they might take Sheffield at 20, but with Sheffield's last two starts being poor -- one was the day after the death of teammate Donny Everett -- he may have slipped a little, as there were already questions about his ability to remain a starter. They're also likely to look at Louisville catcher Will Smith at 36 and have some interest in West Michigan starter Keegan Akin, Oklahoma shortstop Sheldon Neuse and prep infielder Bo Bichette. 33. St. Louis Cardinals Jon Duplantier, RHP Rice University Duplantier had a huge comeback season -- he ranks second in Division I in strikeouts -- after missing all of 2015 with a sore shoulder, and he scores well both analytically and from a scouting perspective, although Rice coach Wayne Graham overusing Duplantier in the regional last weekend was not good for the kid in any way. 34. St. Louis Cardinals Will Craig, 3B/1B Wake Forest Getting Craig here would be a rather ideal scenario for the Cardinals, getting someone they might have considered at pick 23 back at 34. Craig had a huge year for Wake Forest but encounters skepticism because he struggled so much on the Cape last summer.
Just some random fan's perspective: <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alright, here's my list of prospects I would like in draft in order:<br>Groome<br>Collins<br>Whitley<br>Burdi<br>Lowe<br>Sedlock<br>Lauer</p>— 'Stros Of Crush City (@Astros_Arsenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Astros_Arsenal/status/740752356086681600">June 9, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Zack Collins, the catcher from Miami. We need depth there and he can hit. First team All American, good size, good power.
Consensus amongst everyone is that the Astros take a college arm. Would rather them take a bat but really not going to nit pick too much, especially when we are all the way back at 17.
Would be pretty stoked with any of these in the 1st round: Collins, Thaiss, Garrett, Muller, Reed. None of the college pitchers that slot around 17 excite me very much, but I don't know all that much so I trust Luhnow.
Past Astros selections at 17: Lidge (1998), Ramon Castro (1994), Don August (1984) Berkman was 16th, Folty 19th
Super interested to see how far Rutherford falls. Have heard he is signable and is not trying to float himself into the 30s/40s a la Daz Cameron.
Legit brain fart here: what pitchers has Luhnow selected that have become successful? Can't think of any besides McCullers and apparently Mengden with the A's this year.
He drafted Lance Lynn, Luke Gregerson, and Jaime Garcia with the Cards when he was in charge of the draft. Also, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal were in his Cardinals tenure.
Good call, don't know why I wasn't thinking of his Cardinals drafts. I guess I'm just tired of the Andrew Thurman-type college arms taken way too early.
