Yeah that was a massive shift right for the euro. We still have to watch this closely. The models now show the east coast ridge breaking down to allow this storm to progress northward. Let's see what happens with tonights run.
99L has been torn up pretty good by wind sheer. Probably going to drop some rain on S. Fla, but might not be TS. If it gets into Gulf for any length of time, it could strengthen.
It was a triple whammy of dry air, proximity to Hispaniola and the shear that's done it in for now. It looks pathetic on satellite right now but I don't think it's over yet. Shear is decreasing and it appears to be slowing down a bit. I think the next few hours are key.
Some of the models, including the whole BAM suite, have the Western GOM back in play. I hope this thing is completely torn apart before reaching the GOM...
Several models have been indicating a completely different low spinning up just offshore of Texas. Most have paid little attention to this since 99L was supposed to be the big show but if you look at the current satellite you can see quite a bit of moisture already in the Gulf. As for 99L the naked low level swirl that everyone tracked all day long has been building a little convection finally but is about to smack into the north coast of eastern Cuba. Most think that is the end of that and it will die but I want to wait until morning to see if it can make it across Cuba into the Carib. They instead are focusing on what appears to be multiple mid level vortices around Jamaica and north of DR that you can see here. We will see what the latest GFS and Euro spits out tonight but not expecting a whole lot. Should be interesting though. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black
The latest GFS model is in and it is literally all over the place. It shows this thing affecting SE Louisiana then Florida panhandle then heading SE while strengthening to hit Tampa crossing Florida and hitting South Carolina. Crazy stuff. Euro should be in shortly.
NWS now shows the possibility of that low spinning up off the Texas coast that was mentioned a few posts ago FYI: the HWRF model goes absolutely crazy with 99L. It shows a really strong Katrina-like hurricane heading toward LA/MS. Keep in mind though that is just 1 model run of 1 model and it is not the GFS or euro model though it is a respectable model. I won't post the graphic but if some of you weather geeks are interested go check it out.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">USAF mission into 99L this morning canceled. System has low chance of tropical cyclone formation next 48 hours. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/99L?src=hash">#99L</a> <a href="https://t.co/AoYk1hfJ5B">pic.twitter.com/AoYk1hfJ5B</a></p>— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/769138842754551812">August 26, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Latest key messages from NHC regarding the weak low pressure system. <a href="https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb">https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/99L?src=hash">#99L</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NHCDirector">@NHCDirector</a> <a href="https://t.co/YMgs7LALRv">pic.twitter.com/YMgs7LALRv</a></p>— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/769143035372396544">August 26, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Looks like 99L is getting more organized as it appears to have a closed loop now versus Cohete Roja's image. https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-74.33,22.12,3000/loc=-75.476,22.078
The euro is back on board with development of 99L. Take this graphic for whatever its worth because all the computer models have struggled mightily with this thing. Based on satellite it may finally be getting its act together so that's why I'm posting it.
All i know is that if it makes it into the gulf with any level of organization then i dont doubt it turning into a tropical storm at least. It looks like the fact that it was weaker pushed it further west than north. The models ticking back up is probably due to the fact that the system may make its way into the gulf
All I will say is these model runs are comedy gold from day to day. They are all over the place. Nobody has a clue what is going on with this. It is pretty frustrating from a meteorological perspective.
No kidding. This has been the most frustrating thing I have ever seen and I've been tracking these things for years. It's hilarious seeing how professional meteorologists are throwing their hands up with this thing. Saw this comment on another board and couldn't help but laugh. "Lmao. I don't know what to think anymore." - Professional meteorologist
