I'm with you. My backyard drains terribly, so I've basically had a swamp all week. The sun comes out long enough every day to mostly dry it all up, but then we get another downpour.
I've had over 9" of rain in the past ~10 days and there has been virtually zero runoff, that's how dry the ground was in the Hill Country.
The euro model popped this out a couple hours ago. Interestingly the GFS model shows nothing at all happening to 99L. Definitely need to watch this the next couple of days. The track the euro shows this potential storm takes is eerily similar to Katrina.
Well ****. The latest euro is coming in right now and it has shifted further west and faster since the last run. This looks like it could be a serious threat to already flooded areas of LA and possibly us as well. Definitely need to keep a constant watch on this one now.
Tropical storm Gaston should be moving north, away from the Caribbean and Gulf. The other storm has an 80% chance of forming over the next 5 days - 60% over the next 2 days.
Euro has it on the Rita track for landfall around next Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS has it falling apart. Who knows, I never watch anything close to a week out and not in the Gulf.
It varies. If Houston, probably Sept 1 (Th) plus or minus a day. Sunday it should be hitting S. Florida if it survives. If it hits closer to Fla, it will hit sooner.
If you're in Katy, no excuse needed. I hope that isn't the case. I'm flying out on Tuesday and coming back on Thursday. Don't want to leave my family and then be stuck somewhere.
Euro model is displaying a classic windshield wiper effect - the model's track is swinging back and forth - as future TS Hermine does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation (CoC). 12z Euro has it making landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about 980mb and then tracking towards the Carolinas. These are very difficult forecasting conditions, and track and intensity will continue to be difficult to forecast even after a CoC forms (assuming it does).
