I have posted about it before. The Astros international prospects are going to start filtering in heavily into the clubs top prospects. The Astros have felt very strongly about the kids they have gotten the last 3 years... Next year there will be even more. Oz is very good at his job and his importance in the organization will only increase as the Astros intend to invest more heavily in the international market now that they will not have high picks.
Anyone else notice they essentially said Michael Freeman was a major league quality player NOW?!? That's crazy for a draftee who pitched 2 innings above A ball last year. That's a lot of prospect respect right there. Duffy/Aplin/Fontana played a lot of minor league games to get their Low risk tag.
Well some of that is because Luhnow is basically saying as much... he said he expects Freeman to make his MLB debut at some point this year.
Even still, there probably aren't more than a handful of Low-risk prospects per organization and I daresay only a handful that have so little time above A-ball.
While getting a 7th Rd pick to contribute is obviously nice, I think his major league ready tag has a lot more to do with his suspected role, which is LOOGY. He was basically drafted to be a specialist, so he only has to effectively do one thing. 15 IP against lefties last year... they got 2 hits with a 24/5 K/BB ratio. It seems he does that one thing pretty well.
Crawfish Boxes is doing its week on prospects. They have out the 21-30 prospects here:http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/2/1/10888266/astros-top-30-prospects-podcast-no-30-21-prospects 21 T. Hernandez 22 Stassi 23 Ritchie 24 Arauz 25 McDonald 26 Aplin 27 Thornton 28 Muriel 29 Duffy 30 Kyle Smith Seems their list is going by tools/ceiling more than production.
in that most of the guys from 1-20 are going to be opposite what the 21-30 guys are? Because most of those guys from 21-30 have extensive college or minor league experience and are lower upside. Muriel and Arauz are the only tools guys without significant experience.
Baseball Prospectus: Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects 1. Alex Bregman 2. A.J. Reed 3. Francis Martes 4. Daz Cameron 5. Kyle Tucker 6. D.J. Fisher 7. Colin Moran 8. Michael Feliz 9. David Paulino 10. Miguelangel Sierra Five who are just interesting (basically BP's way of saying next 5): Tony Kemp Riley Ferrell Tyler White Joe Musgrove Nolan Fontana
Surprised to see Sierra so high. He really struggled in his short-time in the GCL, though he did have a great debut in the DSL. He did show a great walk rate in both of about 10%, and he did hit a good number of doubles in the DSL (at a rate that would make Biggio jealous). Jonathan Arauz did a better job in the GCL hitting .254/.309/.370 and is a year younger. That was his pro debut.
Sierra and Arauz should be juniors or seniors in high school and there is a lot of projection involved when you are talking about players that are literally 50 pounds and 2-3 inches shorter than they are likely to be. I have not seen Arauz play, but know he was viewed as far more than a throw in by the Astros, they specifically wanted him. However his lower trunk is expected to get thicker and may cause a move to third or second. He has a little pop though. Sierra is in part ranked high because he has very good fundamentals and tools for the shortstop position, it is unlikely he has to move from the position and it is likely that he ends up being a very good fielder. His hit tool is expected to play up because of his instincts. He is a good prospect, certainly top 10-15 in the system.
When you're talking about teenagers in the GCL, scouting reports mean more than slash lines. No GCL player is close to a finished product, so you have to "project" and all that.
Yes, Duffy is fighting for a spot on the MLB team and is the number 29 prospect just seemed off to me. I'm thinking he has a low ceiling, but it isn't easy to make it to the majors. Do the Astros really have 28 prospects that are likely to produce more than him in the majors? I would put Teoscar in the tools category as he looks far away even though guys in AA are just a call away from majors. I don't put much faith in free swingers with contact problems as it just seems MLB pitching would feast on those guys.
Of course, but Sierra was clearly overmatched as a 17/18 year old, while Arauz held his own against the same competition as a 16/17 year old. I find myself more optimistic about Arauz, even if the ceiling is considered lower. I also think it is strange that someone could struggle so bad in the GCL, yet make our top 10. Baseball America had them close to equal prospects in the mid-20s.
Prospect lists are always wonky. Duffy's floor is the MLB. Most Top 20/30 prospects never sniff the MLB. Perhaps an interesting prospect list would be ranked by their floor. Prospects within reach on the MLB would have rank higher than the others. Duffy would rank higher than Daz Cameron et al.
I don't think floor or ceiling should be the ranking. I think it should be expected value (i.e. A * 1 WAR + B * 2 WAR + C * 3 WAR + D * 4 WAR, etc. where A is the perceived probability a player makes 1 WAR, B...2 WAR, etc.). Most prospect list appear to be a mix between ceiling and expected value. I tend to gravitate to the guys I think will make majors which is going to be slanted towards upper level guys. I don't really care about ceilings unless a player has a realistic chance of making it somewhat close to his ceiling (or even surpass his perceived ceiling).
