*This comment was made with the full awareness that opinions on prospects vary by publication. FWIW, Brett Phillips was #61, Mark Appel was #64, and Jake Nottingham was #66. 3 guys who the Astros traded appeared on BP's list, but the Astros still put 5 more players on the list.
He'd have to be significantly better than Correa who is at least an average defensive SS. And even then Correa may be so entrenched that a jeter/arod situation occurs where the incoming superior SS switches to third. There's just something more glamorous about having a stud short-stop than a stud third baseman.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/astros">@astros</a>' Alex Bregman ranked #7 on 2016 Top 10 SS Prospects list. Video scouting report: <a href="https://t.co/VzoIaVC9km">https://t.co/VzoIaVC9km</a> <a href="https://t.co/nBE0xm5cWu">pic.twitter.com/nBE0xm5cWu</a></p>— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/692527373837819905">January 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Astros prospects on MLB.com's top 100: 22. Alex Bregman 40. A.J. Reed 41. Francis Martes 74. Kyle Tucker 75. Daz Cameron <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">75 D. Cameron<br>74 K. Tucker<br>73 L. Ortiz<br>72 A. Bradley<br>71 J. Peraza<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Top100Prospects?src=hash">#Top100Prospects</a><br>Watch: <a href="https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5">https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5</a> <a href="https://t.co/lX2AC11ZFU">pic.twitter.com/lX2AC11ZFU</a></p>— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/693255151851802624">January 30, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">45 M. Margot<br>44 M. Kepler<br>43 B. Honeywell<br>42 A. Alford<br>41 F. Martes<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Top100Prospects?src=hash">#Top100Prospects</a><br>Watch: <a href="https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5">https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5</a> <a href="https://t.co/mZlnp4oEDS">pic.twitter.com/mZlnp4oEDS</a></p>— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/693257331669385216">January 30, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="es" dir="ltr">40 A.J. Reed<br>39 A. Espinoza<br>38 C. Fulmer<br>37 R. Mondesi<br>36 D. Tate<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Top100Prospects?src=hash">#Top100Prospects</a><br>Live: <a href="https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5">https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5</a> <a href="https://t.co/wawt65ytiC">pic.twitter.com/wawt65ytiC</a></p>— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/693257654282686466">January 30, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">25 A. Benintendi<br>24 J. De Leon<br>23 F. Barreto<br>22 A. Bregman<br>21 S. Newcomb<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Top100Prospects?src=hash">#Top100Prospects</a><a href="https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5">https://t.co/fZ1qUFDov5</a> <a href="https://t.co/P3aJbLFt67">pic.twitter.com/P3aJbLFt67</a></p>— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/693259219273977856">January 30, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Agreed. There's nothing to suggest that Bregman is Adam Everett/Omar Visual at SS. That's the only way he gets to supplant the franchise. (Plus, Luhnow has said as much that Bregman can/will play other positions).
Why is there so much debate in the scouting world whether he can stick at SS? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2487847-alex-bregman-prospect-profile-for-astros-1st-round-pick http://m.mlb.com/news/article/127869438/draft-profile-lsu-shortstop-alex-bregman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lsus-alex-bregman-firmly-among-the-top-10-draft-prospects/ I think the consensus (if there is one) is that he has the ability to play SS due to soft hands and good instincts, but won't be considered in the top tier of defensive shortstops. He'll have average range at best and an average arm at best (perfectgame clocked him at 84mph across the diamond as a HS JR, Carlos Correa clocked at 97mph as a senior and 94mph as a junior). Can he play SS, consensus is yes he could be an average SS, but would probably be an above average 2B. To say he's a true shortstop I would say is a stretch otherwise there wouldn't be so many questioning his future position. If he was far and away the rangier defender, I don't think anyone here would have a problem moving Correa to 3B. In actuality, I think I hear more people calling for Bregman to move to 3B on these forums.
Houston Astros Top 30 Prospects, as ranked by Baseball America (with grades): I'll break down the Astros section of the book in greater detail later. Bonus Prospect (only available if you ordered the handbook through Baseball America): Reymin Guduan, LHP, 50/Extreme 30. Michael Freeman, LHP, 40/Low 29. Nolan Fontana, 2B/SS, 40/Low 28. Matt Duffy, 3B, 40/Low 27. James Hoyt, RHP, 45/Medium 26. Alfredo Gonzalez, C, 45/Medium 25. Miguelangel Sierra, SS, 50/Extreme 24. Gilberto Celestino, OF, 50/Extreme 23. Andrew Aplin, OF, 40/Low 22. Wander Franco, 3B, 50/High 21. Franklin Perez, RHP, 55/Extreme 20. Riley Ferrell, RHP, 50/High 19. Max Stassi, C, 45/Medium 18. Jandel Gustave, RHP, 50/High <strike>17. Thomas Eshelman, RHP, 45/Medium</strike> 16. Tyler White, 3B/1B, 45/Medium 15. Tony Kemp, 2B/OF, 45/Medium 14. J.D. Davis, 3B, 50/High 13. Jon Kemmer, OF, 50/High 12. Albert Abreu, RHP, 55/Extreme 11. Michael Feliz, RHP, 55/High 10. D.J. Fisher, OF, 55/High 9. Colin Moran, 3B, 50/Medium <strike>8. Mark Appel, RHP, 55/High</strike> 7. David Paulino, RHP, 60/Extreme 6. Joe Musgrove, RHP, 55/High 5. Daz Cameron, OF, 60/High 4. Kyle Tucker, OF, 60/High 3. Alex Bregman, SS, 55/Medium 2. Francis Martes, RHP, 65/High 1. A.J. Reed, 1B, 65/Medium
BA ranked the Astros system #2 in all of Major League Baseball, behind only the Dodgers. This is what they said: Here's where the Astros' top prospects ranked in the BA editors' personal top 50 lists: Ben Badler 5. A.J. Reed 29. Alex Bregman 32. Francis Martes 46. Kyle Tucker J.J. Cooper 15. Reed 16. Martes 25. Bregman 47. Tucker 49. Joe Musgrove Matt Eddy 7. Reed 22. Martes 40. Bregman John Manuel 13. Reed 21. Martes 48. Bregman
Other notables: Jonathan Arauz was #21 in the Phillies system. He received a grade of 50 and an "Extreme" risk grade. He would have been the #22 prospect in the Astros system. On the other hand, Mark Appel would have been #7 in the Phillies top 30. Brett Phillips was #4 in the Brewers system, getting a 55/High grade, and Josh Hader was #11. He got a grade of 55/Extreme.
I don't understand how AJ Reed can be the #1 1B prospect in the minors yet still come out at #40 overall. In my mind there are nine positions on the field, and let's say you make it 8 position players + 8 pitchers to even it out. Even then, to me the #1 overall 1B, being a position with more offensive potential than most any other in baseball, should be at least in the top 20 in the country.
At 40, he is the top first baseman on their list. There are a number of position players ahead of him including a number of shortstops. As an aside, there are no catchers in the top 40.
Because players are frequently moved to 1B later on after they give up the dream of them playing a more valuable position. The general lack of defensive value also limits their max potential. 1B has also became a relatively thin position over the last few years. Jon Singleton was their #2 1B in 2014 (behind only #29 Jose Abreu), and only came in at #82.
BA really seems to favor the upside of the low level Latin players. Albert Abreu all the way up at number 12, and that's a name you haven't heard much about. They also gave Perez a 55. On the American side, Jon Kemmer is all the way up at 13. I've rarely even seen his named mentioned as a prospect of significance, despite the fact that he's raked the last 2 years. Last year in particular he was a monster at CC. Gonna be interesting to see how he fares in Fresno, could be a sleeper name to impact the big league club this year.
Top 2016 rookie: A.J. Reed Breakout prospect: Albert Abreu Sleeper: Marcos Almonte Best tools in the system, from the Handbook Best hitter for average: A.J. Reed Best power hitter: Reed Best strike-zone discipline: Nolan Fontana Fastest baserunner: Myles Straw Best athlete: Daz Cameron Best fastball: Francis Martes Best curveball: Martes Best slider: Riley Ferrell Best changeup: Chris Devenski <strike>Best control: Thomas Eshelman</strike> Best defensive catcher: Alfredo Gonzalez Best defensive infielder: Alex Bregman Best infield arm: J.D. Davis Best defensive outfielder: Daz Best outfield arm: Teoscar Hernandez Draft Analysis Best pure hitter: Bregman Best power hitter: Kyle Tucker Fastest runner: Myles Straw Best defensive player: Bregman, Daz, Garrett Stubbs Best fastball: Riley Ferrell Best secondary pitch: Ferrell's slider, Michael Freeman's slider Best pro debut: Bregman, Freeman Best athlete: Daz Most intriguing background: Daz, Conor Biggio, Kody Clemens, Steve Naemark Closest to the majors: Bregman or Freeman Best late-round pick: Myles Straw, Ralph Garza Jr. The one(s) who got away: Cole Sands, Luken Baker
With Appel out of the system, Albert Abreu is effectively the #11 prospect in the system. The knock on him, as with all young, hard-throwing pitchers, is his control. However, BA notes that he's got his present stuff (93-96 MPH fastball that has touched 99, above-average changeup, average slider) in his favor. I also chose him as my breakout pick for this year.
They really just favor tools over production. Draftable players with loud tools are high draft picks whereas latin players sign for peanuts when they're 16 and the tools develop as they mature. So sometimes the latin players just come out of nowhere on the prospect radar.
