One rarely truly knows how good a QB will be in the nfl unless they are a rare talent like a Manning or Luck, but we cant forget the Brady's and Motana's so teams must continue to take punts on QB's from the draft. I feel Winston will be better than Bridgewater and Hundley will be better than Mariota. Just my personal opinion.
The reason I have us drafting defense heavy is our lack of a legitimate starting quarterback, which makes our entire offense look bad and severely hampers offensive efficiency even with the personnel we have and until we solve that problem, I'd rather continue building a top ranked defense. That is the most successful model for turning a team around. Pete Carroll did it with Seattle early in his tenure drafting Thomas, Chancellor, Irvin, and Sherman until he found Wilson and leaped to the next level. Even the Super Bowl Champion Patriots have have spent the bulk of their picks in past 5 drafts on defense first including; McCourty, Jones, Hightower, Collins, and Easley. Championships are won by building a top notch defense. My guess is that we will have to get our future QB the old-fashioned way at some point in the draft possibly O'Brien's boy Hackenberg next year. Until then I say we build a top flight defense.
I know teams reach at QB, but damn. Petty grades out no better than Savage imo. 4th Round Talent with albeit much more upside than Savage.
Savage has better size/tools. Petty has more experience, albeit in a system that doesn't translate well to the NFL. Both are projects. Word out of the Senior Bowl practices were that Petty struggled because he doesn't really know how to read a defense. At Baylor, he knew where he was going with the ball before the snap, throwing to the primary receiver almost every time. People like to bring up Wilson, who dropped because of his size, as an example of a 3rd rounder being successful. But remember that while Wilson can run around, he ran a Pro Style offense at Wisconsin and at NC State before that. His transition to the NFL wasn't as difficult as it's going to be for someone like Petty, or even Mariota or Hundley. It's really hard to project how QBs coming out of spread/option/air raid systems are going to do in the pros.
The NFL draft among all the drafts is like selling cattle at the rodeo. The measurables are what matters. That works really well for RB's and DL's. I think that that is a tremendous mistake when it comes especially to QB. Among the QB's, in this draft, who is it that everybody loves as a great college QB, everybody is saying just doesn't have the physical tools to be able to play the QB position in the NFL? That's where I'd start looking for my next QB. Of course, it isn't that simple by any means at all. Bad NFL QB's like Tim Tebow would qualify under that criteria. But that is how I'd narrow down my selection for the guys that I'd give priority to for evaluation. You could then eliminate Tebow after watching that slow motion disaster of a throwing motion. Anybody with the primary positive attribute being "strong arm" or under negatives the attribute "needs to work harder/work at being a leader" would start out with a giant red flag next to their name. Again, not 100%, but that is a good starting point. I've already decided not to put in the effort to watch the guys for this draft, so I don't know who that is, but that is how I'd organize my search. I want guys who, when they realize that they are in way over their head in practice as a rookie, are going to get up and work at it until they get it right. Those are the guys who succeed. If you decide after a mountain of setbacks that it is too much and you're never going to be great, or decide you'd rather be drinking purple drink, or snorting coke in bar bathrooms, or even admiring your pretty locks and nice white gloves on the sideline you are a guaranteed fail. The guys who succeed are the guys who refuse to fail.
Agree, most all of the top 200 guys have the physical tools to play the game, it's the 'will to win', the high motor, big heart guys that seem to excel. Scout and measure that, draft those guys.
Will to win... what does that even mean? That some QBs want to win more than others? That's silly. And even if it was a tangible measureable, how can you measure that once you pay a guy tens of millions of dollars? There is no exact science but you can narrow it down to roughly four things that all great NFL QBs have: 1) they can fire the out route It's the hardest throw to make in the NFL and defenses feast on guys who can't do it (see Schaub, Matt, 2013). 2) they're football smart 3) they're football gym rats These are connected; quantity's meaningless without quality, in terms of playbook/system/league study; they have to put in the time, and it must be time well-spent. 4) they lack fear This is the big one. The margin for error in the NFL is significantly smaller than in college, where guys are routinely much more wide open. In the NFL, guys are open for seconds and you have to combine skillsets 1-3 with the absolute fearlessness to throw the pass at the exact moment the window opens. The reason drafting a QB is such a crapshoot is that only one of these (#1) is truly measureable and even then, making that pass on the practice field is different than doing it with Richard Sherman jumping your WR's route. The rest you have to find out in-game - regualr season, to boot. It's just a remarkably difficult process.
McShay's most recent 1st round mock is up on ESPN, had us taking: Andrus Peat Houston Texans (9-7)COLLEGE: StanfordClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 315POS: OT Analysis: The Texans need a quarterback, but aren't going to find one here. Pass catchers Devin Funchess (Michigan) or Jaelen Strong (Arizona State) would be options, although both are slight reaches this early. So I'll have them take Peat, who fills a need and is a steal at this point in the draft. The more I watch him on tape, the more I appreciate how quick his feet are. He's also tall, has long arms and good awareness, and possesses good power as a blocker. He needs to improve his consistency as a finisher, but he's young and should continue to get better.
To me 'will to win' means you are willing to put in the work and dedication to the game, you have an indomitable spirit that believe you will prevail no matter the odds, and that you are willing to dominate the man across from you with no remorse. You have to be willing to give up a lot of life and family, focusing on a game. The commitment is rare and possibly a little insane. But I was not specifically referring to QB's. JFF is the poster child for all skill/no will. I worry a little but that JJ may lose some that with all his celebrity. (I have never had any capacity for any of that)
I'm down for BPA. Honestly the only position I think it'd be disappointed the Texans spending this pick is QB. Almost everything is in play. CB, OL, FS, NT, OLB, ILB, WR. Doubt they'd go WR as they recently spent one on Deandre. Give me best CB/OL available and let's hope we get Demeco Ryans v2.0 somewhere in this draft. Re-Sign Mallett, pick up another project QB and let's roll.
In education and psychology, there is a clunky word "stick-to-itiveness", that is a recent conceptually important idea. Presumably everybody knows there is a low corelation between absolute intelligence and school performance. Stick-to-itiveness is why less intelligent people get better grades than smarter people. It is a willingness to persist in effort after failure. People with a high degree of this trait simply don't give up until they succeed. Performance in school can be predicted pretty well by factoring the two traits together. It rose to prominence after I left college (or at least I was unaware of it there), but I've no doubt someone somewhere has some tests that nominally measure it. NFL teams are notoriously conservative in their thinking, so I'm going to guess it isn't formally at the core of the evaluation, though I'm sure most coaches grasp it intuitively, if not formally. An example of football "stick-to-itiveness" is the character from the movie "Rudy". No football talent at all, but he managed to make this way onto the team over much more talented people because he fixed sight on his goal, and refused to give up. If that kid had had real NFL level talent, he'd be JJ Watt, because he was always outworking everybody else. Look at every QB who has been all pro caliber for an extended period. Almost none of them would qualify as the best physical specimen.
Sounds like you're referrign to the "It factor" - which in NFL QB'ing analysis, you often have, until you don't, and then you never did.
Mock draft 1.0: Winston-Evans duo is enticing By Lance Zierlein | NFL Media draft analyst Published: Feb. 5, 2015 at 12:00 p.m. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts/lance-zierlein/220600?campaign=Twitter_cfb_zierlein PICK 16 HOU BUD DUPREE OLB KENTUCKY The Texans are hoping that Jadeveon Clowney comes back at full strength, but they still need help on the other side and Dupree is a supreme athlete. GRADE 5.94 ? 6'4" HEIGHT 264LBS. WEIGHT ANALYSIS STRENGTHS Freakish athlete with chiseled frame. Outstanding power with ability to rag-doll tight ends at will. Should be an above average edge-setter. Good transition from playing run to rushing quarterback in play-action. Explosive closing burst. Willing thumper when he has a shot on running back. Can drop into space and play zone. Raw, but learning with huge growth potential as a player. Has strength at the point to be a physical edge-setter. Scouts give him plus grade for character. Will post eye-popping numbers at the NFL Scouting Combine. WEAKNESSES Tall but not long. Wins with athleticism over skill at this point. Some scouts believe his instincts are below average, leading to hesitation. Will get caught taking bad angles to the ball. Needs to improve hand fighting. Still raw rushing the passer. Doesn't possess a go-to pass-rush move. Appears to lack urgency in-game. SOURCES TELL US "He's a little slow to diagnose, which causes him to get a late start on plays. I would ask him to drop into space in zone dog looks and that's about it. To me, he's a pure see 'em, get 'em 3-4 rush end." -- NFC East regional scout NFL COMPARISON Jamie Collins BOTTOM LINE Dupree is an explosive, powerful athlete with a background in basketball. While he's been productive at Kentucky, his tape doesn't always do his potential justice. He must continue to improve as a pass rusher, but his traits are undeniable. Difference between being good and great might be his coordinator. -Lance Zierlein PICK NO. 17 SD TRAE WAYNES CBMICHIGAN ST. The Chargers are unsettled and small at cornerback. Waynes adds height to a unit that could be hit hard by free agency. PICK NO. 28 DEN MAXX WILLIAMS TEMINNESOTA Never underestimate the importance of a talented tight end in Gary Kubiak's offense. With Julius Thomas' contract unsettled, Williams would fit the bill.
THE HARRIS 100 http://www.houstontexans.com/news/draft_prospect_report.html 13 WR Kevin White West Virginia Sr. 6’2" 211 lb. Catches nearly everything…great ball skills…high points the football…reminds me of DeAndre Hopkins…snatches ball out of the air...showed a bit of wiggle and shake, fighting off defenders on a screen catch and run…can lose concentration a bit 14 RB Todd Gurley II Georgia Jr. 6’1” 232 lb. Closest thing to Adrian Peterson there is…power back with attitude…not much wiggle…durability concerns…finishes runs…one of two RB with a definite first round grade, even with the knee injury…tore his ACL in the Auburn game November…suffered some sort of injury each season at Georgia 15 DT Danny Shelton Washington Sr. 6’1” 343 lb. Can play up and down the line…conditioning has been a factor…powerful at point of attack…moves very well for a 327 lb. man (uh, that’s after a month of dieting, folks)…MUCH more stout at the point of attack…reminds many of Haloti Ngata…think Ngata was a more natural athlete but Shelton in that same vein 16 OLB/DE Nate Orchard Utah Sr. 6'4" 255 lb. Dominant in 2014…2nd in the nation with 18.5 sacks…registered 21 TFL…not a complete surprise but he still made significant progress…strong and long…good burst off the ball…if anything else, he can get to the QB…uses his hands very well, whether rushing or playing the run…variety of skilled hand movements (stab, chop, arm over, rip under)...grew on me in his career, did the same at Senior Bowl...watched him in individual and wasn't impressed then as the practice wore on, I was full-on focused on him...completely dominated team sessions at times throughout the week...last season wasn't an aberration 17 OLB Vic Beasley Clemson Sr. 6’3” 235 lb. Thought he was coming out in 2014…even though he had a much decorated season, not sure the return truly improved his draft stock…pure pass rusher…must transition to 3-4 OLB…Most accomplished and diverse pass rusher in this conference...can win with speed or technique...great first step...decorated in 2014, won nearly every award a college defensive player could win 18 RB Melvin Gordon III Wisconsin Jr. 6’1” 207 lb. Speed unlike we typically see at Wisconsin…runs hard between the tackles, but not his forte…excellent lateral quickness…won’t get the edge like he does in college…insane burst though…the more I watch him, the more I think Jamaal Charles…showed tremendous pass blocking acumen, especially in the Outback Bowl …rushed for the 2nd most yards in a season all-time 19 WR Jaelen Strong Arizona State Jr. 6’3” 205 lb. JUCO transfer that didn’t get a ton of offers out of high school…a true downfield threat…wants the ball in his hands…play maker after the catch…burst to run away from secondary when in the open…not completely polished product…comfortable and aggressive with the ball in the air…curious to see how he times at the Combine, but honestly don’t really care he can play…he’s tough…doesn’t back down from a challenge (see the Washington game in 2014 v. Marcus Peters)…caught a season changing Hail Mary at USC to beat the Trojans 20 CB Trae Waynes Michigan State Jr. 6’1” 185 lb. Did not finish his 2014 season with his best effort in the Cotton Bowl…competitive and long…played a bunch of quarters coverage, but within the scheme, a ton of man coverage…Size and potential will win a team over early in the draft…far from a complete prospect at this point. 21 WR Dorial Green-Beckham Miz./Okla. Jr. 6’4” 215 lb. HUGE question mark off the field…closest thing to AJ Green that we’ve seen…booted from Missouri and transferred to Oklahoma for the 2014 season, although he was ineligible following his transfer…needed to see another great year to feel “top five pick” confidence…not at all sure what the future holds for one of the more talented players in the game…the character concerns could drop him off many teams’ boards…acrobatic receiver who makes the difficult look easy…downfield receiver at worst…his own worst enemy
Don't know about the 1st round, but I hope we grab Perryman (ILB) in the 2nd, and Walford (TE) in either the 3rd or 4th.
whats the drop off between a Perryman in the 2nd vs a Paul Dawson in the 4/5th? agree we need to target ILB depth, just looking at value
I really think that's an excellent value pick. I'm stuck between him and only him at RT or a beast NT like Shelton or Brown.
