Assuming the following are completely off the table for various reasons ** Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, Bullpen, Altuve, Springer, Gattis, Correa How would you rank our top trade chips. Not looking at it from who we would want to trade, but who other teams would want in a deal for a major player. I would go..... 1. Appel 2. Velasquez 3. Feliz 4. Tucker 5. Carter 6. Hader 7. Musgrave 8. Kemp 9. Fisher 10. Singleton I think typically other teams would rather go after arms with a lot of upside in trades, and draft high upside bats at the top of the draft (most teams selling off will be picking high next year) As bad as Appel has been lately, he still has a great deal of trade value. Guys like VV and Feliz would be major targets by others also, especially when the guy we would be going after would likely be an Ace. Phillips should probably be on here but i'm not sure who would be taken off. I have been as rough on Villar as anyone lately, but I would still think that he would have good trade value as a 24 year old with a lot ability. Guys like him could be the filler pieces to make a deal work. But for the big pieces, who does CF think has the most value
I think this is fair. The only big disagreement I have is Singleton (and I get that everyone sees the $10M/5 yrs in different ways). IMO, GMs see it in a good way for a decent prospect with good upside (and he is still that)--and I'd put Singleton at #5 just above Carter, moving everyone down
I don't see what McCullers has done to be off the table. I like him, but still think he is a reliever long term. I think you are really undervaluing Phillips, with a solid finish at CC he is gonna be a top 100 prospect, maybe top 50 depending on how well he hits at CC. Fisher too is likely gonna be fairly well regarded. Appel is still number one, but he's no longer on another level, he has basically the same value to me as the next 5-6 prospects, maybe even less, but I'm still giving the benefit of the doubt. 1.Appel 2.Velasquez 3.Phillips 4.Fisher 5.Tucker 6.Feliz 7.Reed 8.McCullers 9.Singleton 10.Musgrove
I just think that as long as McCullers keeps throwing well, it doesn't do as much good to trade for an Ace if you are taking away from your current rotation at the same time. I've always thought the "he will end up in the bullpen because of his command" talk was overrated. If he was 24 and struggling with command in the minors, that's one thing. He is in the majors at 21 and more than holding his own though. Seriously doubt we move him. Agree on Phillips just didn't see any obvious ones to take off of my list. We might not have many true top 20 overall prospects, but the depth we can deal from is incredible.
MLB guys like Marisnick, Castro, Valbuena (he and Carter are a toss up for me, but I think NL teams value Valbuena more), and Lowrie getting no love. Those 4 mixed in between Appel, VV, Phillips, Fisher, Tucker, and Singleton somehow depending on club control left. May be missing a guy or two.
I'd prefer not to deal Valbuena/Lowrie/Marisnick. We're trying to compete, not sell. We need 4 productive OFs. If you have 4 good OFs and rotated Tucker in with Carter/Gattis (or Singleton/Gattis), that'd be pretty solid for a season. I'd be surprised if a team looking to sell at the deadline would be looking for a Valbuena or Lowrie back rather than a prospect. So while they might make an abstract list, I dont' think they make the list that we would actually trade from given the potential suitors If Castro has value, I'd move him. I don't think it's very high right now.
No way I move Castro unless somebody really overpays. The pitchers really seem to like him, particularly Keuchel. Offesnively his numbers aren't great, but his BABIP and LD% aren't jiving right now, I expect his OPS by years end to be in the 720-740 range. Since 2012 his WAR has been solid. Obviously that is inflated by his 2013 season in which he overachieved, but you can't completely ignore that season either. When it comes to catcher I'm willing so sacrifice offense for solid defense as long as the player maintains competent offense, which Castro usually does.
I was looking at how other teams would rate guys not listed by The Beard. Not whether Astros would trade them. Astros need to make room for Correa and Lowrie. Rasmus, Valbuena, Villar, and Gonzalez are all guys that could be traded with some AAA prospects to bring in something of MLB use. I'm thinking a reverse Bud Norris trade.
I disagree that the Astros should look at moving any of the OF or Valbuena. You won't get back much in the "ML useful" realm. I'd be ok with moving Villar or Marwin certainly, but I don't think they've demonstrated a ton of trade value. Hopefully Villar has some mild prospect value left
I think Villar has some value left, only 24 and shows obvious talent. Just needs to be somewhere they can let him play everyday and develop and see. Not on the best team in the AL making boneheaded plays I don't see Lowrie going anywhere, I see him turning into a Zobrist type. Play a little of everything and end up playing 4-5 times a week.
Agreed. I think Villar is the best shot of bringing value + easiest to move given the team is trying to compete of all the guys you mentioned
I wonder if Appel/Singleton/Musgrave/Villar would be enough to get Hamels? On a side note, what do y'all think it would take to get a top notch young catching prospect like Susac or Vasquez? Catching seems to be the only hole in the minors in terms of up and coming talent.
Easily. It is just a question of whether Philles would be willing to pay enough of Hamels's contract as Astros are taking a significant long term financial risk if not.
With the current payroll they have the ability to take this risk. Even though Luhnow will try to cut the best deal possible in terms of $$$$$ with Amaro. It sure feels good to know that Luhnow wont get out smarted but GM's like Amaro.
But if the Astros take on most of Hamel's Salary, they are getting "outsmarted"... Amaro now gets some close to MLB-ready prospects AND gets Hamels payroll off the books. Shouldn't work like that. Phillies need to get younger, thus will be essentially "purchasing" prospects by paying a portion of Hamels salary.
With the current payroll, the Astros may have the flexibility to take the risk for the portion of Hamels's contract this year. He would still be owed 86.5 million after that by Astros and that assumes he falls apart. Tack on another 5 million if he pitches well and gets vested in final season. Hamels gets hurt, that's a good 11 wins down the drain. If the Astros were willing to accept that type of financial risk, they wouldn't be worried about super two for Correa. If Philles won't pay a cent of Hamels's contract, Astros would have been much better off keeping the prospects and seeing how many years after club control would 100 million dollars buy from Correa as soon as Lowrie went down.
I look at contracts like the one Scherzer got in FA and consider Hamels contract a bargain. With that said if it were me I would look at a solid #2 starter like Fister when he gets healthy and save the $$$$. Because I agree with you on the $100 mil and Correa strategy.
Hamels contract is expected to be a slight bargain to fair on open market. In the open market, Appel's rights and Singleton's contract are expected be huge bargains if they were on the open market. If the Philles want a top prospect, they are going to have to cover the expected surplus value in club controlled rights of that prospect to ease the financial risk.
it's market value though. if other teams are willing to take on Hamels's salary and give up prospects, then we have to do it as well. And based on Hamels being signed at a reasonable value for multiple seasons while still pitching at an elite level...I think that's what market value will be in a trade
Joe Joe is right, the Phillies would need to do at least some hedging for us in a Hamels trade. When you consider the quality of prospects the Astros have to offer versus other teams this is only reasonable. If the phillies want to save themselves money and deal him to the Red Sox for a lesser package then let them.
