There's an entire chapter devoted to it in the BP book from 2012.. in fact two of the writers ended up being hired by the Astros front office staff not long after the book was published (IOW, our GM doesn't simply disregard these sort of works). Pretty strong data given... sure there are always exceptions, but it makes both common and physiologic sense. All that was needed was the data to help backup the theory.
Would love to see it if you care to post Must be a hell of a research to come up with some great scientific breakthrough like that
I'm not going to transcribe it... and its not that big of a breakthrough. The human arm was never meant to throw repeatedly "overhand" (let alone throw repetitively with sheer force/torque and resistance).... once you have that fundamental concept in your head, the rest of the theories fall into place. You should read the chapter though... (and the entire book, for that matter). I'm sure the nerd cave has countless studies/theories being analyzed and broken down in similar fashion.
Obviously nobody is exactly the same so it's impossible to say how many pitches someone has left in the tank or whether or not they will need surgery at some point in the future. However it's not debatable that OVerhead throwing is both completely unnatural and physically violent. When draft evaluating a pitcher's future health you're dealing with probably 90% luck and then figuring out how to hedge your bet on the other 10%. Rodon has already thrown a ton of pitches. Maybe he has a 20 year career ahead of him, but is he worth that risk?
Its easy to complain about the pick now, but I remember we were almost in universal approval of the Aiken pick before the UCL s**tstorm broke out. We will never really know whether the Astros were truly terrified of the UCL, or if they saw an underhanded chance to lowball, and lost a game of chicken. But I don't have any problem with the Aiken selection, they had no clue about the UCL when they picked him.
Not to nitpick, but my understanding is that the Aiken decision was based not on the fact that small UCLs are more likely to lead to injury, but that a small UCL precluded successful TJ surgery in the event of an injury. Simple way to think about it: if "Risk" = (likelihood of injury) x (severity of consequences of injury), then Aiken was "risky" because a possible injury would have had devastating consequences. That's why it's both true that he's healthy and presently able to pitch, and that his risk profile is greater than other pitchers.
I am absolutely fine with having Correa instead of Buxton straight up. Will you be critical of the "depth" strategy when watching Gattis hit 40 HRs for us this year? We don't have him if we draft Buxton. Who is Davis?
Meant Bryant, no idea where the name Davis came from, lol And for the record, I am absolutely 100% fine with Correa over Buxton. I just wasn't going to pick and choose when making my argument. If we had been just drafting the top overall talent at the time we would have taken Buxton over Correa. We took Correa so we would have the money to sign Ruiz and McCullers. I would NOT trade Correa for Buxton at this point But I would take Buxton/Bryant/Rodon over Correa/Appel/Draft Pick as a group Loved the Gattis trade by the way, and i've posted many times about that
That isn't exactly accurate. #1) There were scouts that preferred Correa to Buxton, they just happened to be the minority. It is very possible Correa was preferred by the team. #2) The reports were that the team actually preferred Appel, who supposedly turned down $6M, which led to Correa being the selection. I'd guess the team had Buxton #3 on their list without even considering money.
Gotcha. Although if that's your argument, I'm not sure Appel isn't still the pick in 2014 as well. It's easy to use hindsight now, but there were very strong cases being made for all three of Appel, Gray, and Bryant at the time.
I guess I posted it in another thread, but from what I've read about it, the Ortho surgeons just don't have a lot of case studies to draw from as to the "success or failure" of small UCL reconstruction. The anatomy would definitely be more challenging, but I never saw any doctor say the consequences would be "devastating" or that there was a high chance of unsuccessful surgery. It would be riskier in terms of the unknown... I guess the Dbacks will need to make that determination for themselves.
Ok then, i'll use that and say.... We could have Correa, Bryant and Rodon right now Personally, I would prefer that group to Correa, Appel, Draft Pick As for the 2015 draft which is what this thread originally was supposed to be about, I hope we don't try to be too cute with all the money we will have to spend and just take the best two players our scouts say to take, not worrying about having extra cash to overdraft guys later and all of that. Hope we come out of the draft with two studs
I would to, but I just want people to understand that Correa wasn't just a money signing, and that is was probably Appel vs. Correa. I have not problems with us being cute with money as you call it, because it might land us multiple studs. You don't pass up generational talent, but there isn't a player that currently fits that profile in this draft (well, maybe Aiken).
Interpret this however you want to. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Brady Aiken had to shut his first outing down after 12 pitches</p>— keithlaw (@keithlaw) <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/578659139980816386">March 19, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Still no word on what's wrong with Aiken. Heard rumors from multiple sources that he ended a recent bullpen prematurely so not looking great</p>— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) <a href="https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/578687343621578752">March 19, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I'd like to think our medical staff knows a little something when it comes to evaluating players and their bodies. Crisis averted!
Maybe... but then again, why even offer him the $5 million? Gimpy Aiken, Nix, possibly Marshall > than #2 pick and biggest bonus pool?
Right, because we knew he was trash and wouldn't make it. That's why we offered him $5 Million at the end, right?
That would be to mitigate risk involved in losing pick in case Nix won his complaint, get Nix, salvage relationship with an agent, possibly get other guy, and get Aiken who might not get injured. Granted, not a big fan of appeasing agents, but seems like it is done. I'm content with the way things worked out as Astros did what they could, but would have loved Rodon and Appel right now. Was looking forward to that from before the Astros drafted Appel.
