Keith Law's top 30 prospects breakdown, via Insider: The 2015 draft class is about average, certainly not among the better classes, but weak only in specific areas such as college position players and catchers at any level. It's deep in college starters, solid in prep bats and middle-of-the-road for high school arms, although it could end up better than that due to some very projectable guys under the top tier of hard throwers. It's very early for this sort of exercise, but Christopher Crawford and I have put together a ranking of the top 30 prospects in the 2015 class. It's not a projection of where they'll be picked, mind you, but an attempt to put some of the names in a logical order based on present talent and long-term outlook. 1. Brady Aiken, LHP, undecided/no school We're all waiting to hear what's going to happen with Aiken, who is expected to head to junior college and re-enter the draft for 2015. There's a grievance pending for Jacob Nix, who was collateral damage when the Astros backed out of an agreement with Aiken over something in his physical -- although multiple sources have told me Aiken's left UCL is fine -- but Aiken's status is less clear. Either way, he seems very likely to get the $6.5 million he was supposed to get in June, as he's so talented and polished that he's the best prospect in the 2015 class as well. 2. Michael Matuella, RHP, Duke Matuella has size and power, touching the upper 90s with his fastball and possessing a plus slider, but concerns about spondylolysis (a stress fracture in a vertebra of the lower back, often caused by hyperextension of the spine) and his limited track record push him behind Aiken for now. 3. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS The 2015 draft's best position-player prospect is very likely to stay at shortstop despite below-average speed because his hands and instincts are excellent, and he has an excellent feel for hitting, albeit with a bit of a pull-centric approach. He's an older senior, though, and will turn 19 shortly after the draft. 4. Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia Scouts rave about Kirby's feel for pitching, and with a low-90s fastball, a plus changeup and above-average breaking ball, along with solid command, the markings are there for him to become a fast-track arm. 5. Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente (Calif.) HS The 6-foot Allard was by far the best prep pitcher on the showcase circuit over the summer, showing easy 92-95 mph velocity with a plus curveball, along with an athletic body and some room to fill out. 6. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt Some are concerned about Buehler's size -- he's listed at 6-1 and 160 pounds -- but with three above-average to plus secondary pitches and a fastball that will touch 96 mph, the presumed Commodores ace has as high of ceiling as any college arm in this class besides Matuella and Aiken. 7. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville Funkhouser's stuff is legit; he has one of the best sliders in the class and a fastball that sits in the 92-95 range. But there are still concerns about his consistency and command. 8. Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice HS (Bloomfield Hills, Mich.) Plummer is an advanced left-handed hitter with a great combination of bat speed and hand-eye coordination, showing above-average power and speed over the summer. But he faces some questions as a sub-6-foot hitter who might end up in an outfield corner. 9. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt Swanson will get to play shortstop full time this spring, and if he proves he can handle the position, he may jump up into top-five territory. He has the foot speed and hands, but needs to show his arm can handle the left side of the infield, especially since his bat will play anywhere and would make him a potential All-Star at short. 10. Alonzo Jones, OF, Columbus (Ga.) HS Jones is one of the highest-ceiling prep players in the draft, with tremendous bat and foot speed and the kind of quick-twitch movements scouts love to see in young position players. 11. Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (Pa.) HS Nikorak tired a bit over the course of the long summer -- as much as I like getting more looks at prospects, they don't need to do every event -- but he was outstanding at the Perfect Game showcase in June and was still 91-94 in August with a good changeup and a very promising 6-5, 205-pound frame. 12. Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (McDonough, Ga.) The son of former All-Star center fielder Mike Cameron (yes, you are that old), Cameron has been a well-known name in scouting circles, as he has appeared in seemingly every summer event the past few years. While he's no longer a presumed candidate for the first selection in the draft, he's still a very intriguing prospect as an outfielder with pop from the right side and a chance to be a solid center fielder, like his father. 13. Richie Martin, SS, Florida One of the draft's few true shortstops, Martin answered some questions about his bat with a tremendous season in the wood-bat Cape Cod League, showing patience and a high contact rate, along with a .364 batting average, a new club record for the Bourne franchise. He's a plus runner without power, but as long as he stays at short, his bat will play. 14. Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky Cody is yet another giant Wildcats starter, not quite Alex Meyer size (6-9), but close at 6-7, with a starter's fastball but questions about his secondary stuff. After working primarily in relief in 2014 (six starts in 18 appearances), he'll move into Kentucky's rotation in '15. 15. Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona A relative unknown coming into the summer, Ponce has seen his stock soar after hitting 97 mph in the Cape Cod All-Star game and showing a slider that flashes plus-plus from a clean delivery and a strong 6-5, 235-pound build. 16. Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS (Long Beach, Calif.) Betts can hit, and he has the size and strength to hit for power if he can get more rotational, so the main question is really whether he can stay behind the plate in pro ball. He has the arm and body for it, so if it works, he could become a top-10 pick. 17. Alex Bregman, SS/2B, LSU It wasn't a great sophomore campaign for Bregman, but he still showed an above-average hit tool from the right side and solid average power as well. He'll play short for the Tigers this spring, but he's a lock to move to second base in pro ball because of below-average speed and an average arm. 18. Ian Happ, IF, Cincinnati Happ is one of the best pure hitters for average and contact in the college crop, but he needs to find a permanent position, playing mostly second but some first base and outfield over the past two springs and summers. He has the arm for third base, and his bat would certainly profile there. 19. Trenton Clark, OF, Richland HS (Fort Worth, Texas) Clark impressed scouts over the summer and early fall with his approach at the plate and consistent performance, marking himself as one of the best high school bats in the class. The Texas Tech commit isn't a plus runner, but he was by far the best performer with the USA 18-and-under team, proving difficult to strike out and showing some pop from his 6-foot, 205-pound frame, along with a 10-for-10 performance on the bases. 20. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt Fulmer has one of, if not the, quickest arms in the 2015 draft, which allows him to hit the high 90s on radar guns, and he'll show an above-average breaking ball as well. He could be destined for the bullpen, however, as his size and delivery are far from ideal. 21. Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna (N.Y.) HS Whitley, like Plummer, will be a tough guy to scout in the spring thanks to cold weather and weak northern competition, so he'll be evaluated more off a strong summer performance at the Area Code Games and the Metropolitan Classic, as well as off his overall athleticism and speed when he resumes playing in April. [+] EnlargeBrandon Downes, Joe McCarthy, Branden Cogswell AP Photo/Eric Francis Joe McCarthy, right, is a 6-foot-3, 215-pound junior at the University of Virginia. 22. Joe McCarthy, OF, Virginia Another "pure hitter" type like Happ, McCarthy doesn't have any plus tools except perhaps his bat, but he makes a lot of contact and has a track record of performance against excellent competition. He'll also benefit from scouts pouring into Charlottesville to watch starters Kirby, Brandon Waddell and Josh Sborz, as the Cavaliers are once again among the best teams in the country. 23. Jake Lemoine, RHP, Houston Lemoine has battled consistency issues in his time at Houston, but when he's at his best, he'll show two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, along with an above-average changeup with deception from arm speed. 24. Gio Brusa, OF, Pacific Considered a potential top-two-round selection coming out of high school, Brusa improved his stock with a big summer on the Cape, showing an above-average hit tool with plus power, though he leaves much to be desired as a defender/runner. 25. Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara Tate has two borderline plus-plus pitches in a fastball that has touched 99 mph and a slider with outstanding late tilt, but the lack of a consistent third pitch and high-effort delivery have some believing he's a high-leverage reliever as a professional. 26. Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle HS (Concord, Calif.) Hooper is a mountain of a young man (6-7, 230 pounds) with a fastball that can get up to 97, and he'll show a breaking ball that flashes plus. The UCLA commit also shows below-average command and a delivery that defines "max effort," making him one of the more volatile prospects to start the season. 27. Chris Shaw, 1B, Boston College The luster of college first basemen has worn off after some high-profile misses in the mid-2000s, but Shaw's power has held, even with wood bats, as he led the Cape in homers this summer after a solid spring playing for the worst team in the ACC. He'll get plenty of chances to impress scouts facing quality pitching in the ACC, but as a first base-only prospect, he'll have to hit, get on base and show power to be a first-rounder. 28. Luken Baker, RHP/OF, Oak Ridge HS (Spring, Texas) Baker is one of the draft's few two-way prospects, as the massive right-hander can touch 95 with his fastball and also show plus-plus power from the right side, with the latter in particularly short supply in pro ball at the moment. 29. James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA Kaprielian has shown plus velocity in relief roles in the past, but his stuff was closer to average in a strong performance this summer starting for Team USA. He's a back-of-the-round type now as a strong-bodied, mid-rotation type, but could jump into the top 10 if his fastball plays up in the spring. 30. Skye Bolt, OF, North Carolina If Bolt shows the same skill set he did during his freshman season, he has a chance to go early as an outfielder with above-average tools across the board. We didn't see that player much as a sophomore, however, so his status as a first-round target is very much in question. Honorable mentions (listed alphabetically) Beau Burrows, Weatherford (Texas) HS Riley Ferrell, RHP, TCU Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State Juan Hillman, LHP, Olympia HS (Winter Garden, Fla.) Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois Tate Matheny, CF, Missouri State Ryan McKay, RHP, Smithson Valley HS (Spring Branch, Texas) Kyler Murray, OF (and football QB), Allen (Texas) HS Kevin Newman, SS/2B, Arizona DJ Stewart, 1B, Florida State.
Seeing Lemoine reminded me of another great Houston candidate for later rounds: Kyle Survance. What do y'all think about him? He's a junior this year.
That's from October. [rquoter]Top storylines for 2015 MLB draft If there is such thing as a draft season, it begins this week. College baseball will begin its season Friday, and high schools in warm-weather states will get their campaigns started as well. And like every year, there are several intriguing plotlines that scouts and teams will be following over the next three months. These storylines will help shape the class and shape how the draft will play out come June. Here are five of the most intriguing storylines fans of the MLB draft should be following this spring. 1. Is Brady Aiken the best player in the draft class -- again? It's sort of an odd question to ask right now, as we aren't 100 percent certain Aiken will even be eligible for the 2015 draft. Signs point to yes, however, and assuming he shows the same type of stuff and command he did last spring, he's a borderline prohibitive favorite to be the top player in this year's class. "I don't know how you don't have him at No. 1, especially in a fairly weak draft class," one AL scout said. "You don't see left-handers with three plus pitches and borderline plus-plus command come around very often, and you get that in Aiken. That could change if he struggles this spring or someone steps up more than we expect, but if you're asking me today, Aiken's the guy." If he doesn't end up going first overall to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Aiken won't slide too far down draft boards, with teams such as the Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers andMinnesota Twins likely to be interested, assuming he's healthy. 2. If not Aiken, then who? If Aiken were to have unforeseen struggles or not become a part of the class, there are a few select candidates who have a chance to be that top player. Duke right-hander Mike Matuella starts out the year on top of many boards; he's a 6-foot-7 right-hander who can get downhill with his fastball and will show a plus-plus curveball and solid changeup. Lake Mary (Fla.) High School shortstop Brendan Rodgers is the rare shortstop prospect who has the potential for both a plus hit and power tool, though some believe he'll have to move to third base. Other potential candidates include Vanderbilt right-hander Walker Buehler, Virginia left-hander Nathan Kirby and San Clemente (Calif.) High School left-hander Kolby Allard. 3. Is this the college class that can hit? A major underlying theme of the past few draft classes has been the lack of quality and quantity of collegiate hitters. This year, there are still questions, but it is one of the deepest groups of college position players we've seen since the start of the decade. Vanderbilt's Dansby Swanson starts the year at the top of most collegiate boards, a shortstop with a 60 hit tool and plus speed to boot. He'll be challenged, though, by guys like Cincinnati's Ian Happ, who has arguably the most advanced hit tool in the class, but scouts are unsure of what position he'll play, and LSU shortstop Bregman, who gets rave reviews for his makeup and has above-average offensive tools at his disposal. "There's not a [Chicago Cubs prospect] Kris Bryant here, but it's a lot better than what we've seen lately," an NL East scout said. "Swanson and Bregman are everyday guys up the middle, and then you've got guys like [Florida shortstop Richie] Martin and [Boston College first baseman Chris] Shaw that we've got first-round grades on last year. Not a great group, but pretty solid when you compare it to the past few years." 4. Just how good is Kyler Murray? Murray is one of the true wild cards in the draft, a shortstop with elite athleticism and tremendous bat speed who has as much upside as any prep position player in the class. Unfortunately, we may never see his skill set on a baseball field after this spring. Murray is considered by many to be the best quarterback prospect in the country -- he's ranked as the top dual-threat quarterback by ESPN -- and he signed a letter of intent to play at Texas A&M last Wednesday. Typically, you don't see many five-star football recruits give up football for baseball; the last quarterback to do so was Joe Mauer when he chose the Twins over a scholarship to Florida State. Still, scouts do believe there's a chance Murray will play baseball, and a team looking for a potential top-of-the-order hitter who can win games with his wheels could make football or baseball a very difficult decision this June. Because teams have such limited looks at him, though, they'll have to do a lot of homework before taking him with the high selection to buy out the commitment. 5. Who's the top prep pitcher? The cupboard isn't bare, but this is arguably the weakest group of prep pitchers we've seen since the start of the decade. Allard was the top-ranked prep pitcher in Keith Law and my top 30 last fall and is the name I hear most often associated with that top spot, but he's only 6-foot, which does concern some scouts. Stroudsburg (Pa.) High right-hander Mike Nikorak has the prototypical size you want from a front-line starter and will show two plus pitches, but he has shown inconsistent velocity and can struggle to stay on top of his breaking ball. Justin Hooper of De La Salle High (Concord, Calif.) is massive and has a 70 fastball, but he also has an ugly delivery that some believe will lead him to the bullpen. Other arms that could go early are Watkins High's (Cincinnati) Chandler Day and Clarksville (Tenn.) High's Donny Everett, but talentwise, these are typically pitchers who are second-round selections rather than guys who would go among the first 20 picks. With teams such as the Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies picking in the top 10 and lacking pitching depth, it'll be interesting to see which players step up to justify going that early come June. [/rquoter]
Huge Coogs fan. I think Survance can be a solid pick in the mid rounds. Scrappy player. Very good hitter and leadoff man. Decent defender and arm. Not enough power for the corner OF spots (which he plays at Houston). Reminds me of Derrek Fisher personally.
I get the idea of the profile you're describing but Fisher's got 60 raw power and speed. Fisher's the of opposite of the scrappy player; he's got classic loud tools but hasn't maximized them.
Derek Bell is the first guy I am reminded. Could just be the first name and lack of HRs despite raw power.
Berkman was also a guy with a lot of raw power, who happened to hit a lot of HR's (but I never really considered him a HR hitter).
Ha. I never heard any steroid connections to Ginter, but it actually makes sense in hindsight. Regardless, my basis for that comparison: Both are short, stout/strong middle infield type players, and both have good batting numbers in the minors. Ginter was not a defensive guy and I think Fisher could struggle defensively as well. Hopefully Fisher turns out better.
Fisher can turn into a good right fielder, IMO. He's got the athleticism of a center fielder and his arm is playable. Maybe he ends up in left, but it won't be for his range.
The scouting reports I have read says his arm is below average, and is not playable in CF, which is why he he will be limited to left. If that is the case, he will not be playing right field.
I've heard below average arm, but that it may not be bad to prevent him from playing center if he can get better at taking efficient route to ball.
There are a number of scouting reports, so it would not surprise me that there are differences of opinion about his ability to play CF. However, the telling factor may be that he played 40 games last year, but only 1 was in CF.
HI EVERYBODY! Spoiler Hi Bleacher Report... Much like calling yourself a doctor doesn't qualify you to be a doctor, being a writer for BR doesn't qualify you to be called a writer.
