They took Correa over Buxton, and it could be similar. The best bet may be Swanson. Law says the Astros don't view Rodgers as highly, so it isn't necessarily a decision about money.
Couple of things ... Luhnow is tight lipped, so whatever Law is "hearing" is BS. Both the DBacks and the Astros will likely wait to just before the draft to make their final decision. Draft rankings from the usual suspects are fairly accurate. Rodgers and Tate are currently in the top tier in this draft. If that holds, the Astros will most likely take one of them with their 1.2 pick.
Considering the faux pas last year, I think Luhnow needs to establish his street cred here again. Also, even if the Astros are the tightest ship in all of baseball, prospects would have some idea of how a team views them. Granted, I take most of what the media says about the MLB draft with a grain of salt.
I think the faux pas of last year is cleared in most of the eyes that matter. With Aiken having a true injury of concern, it looks like the Astros acted correctly... not that I want to rehash this.
Repost <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Opting out of the MLB draft. Looking forward to continuing my football and baseball career at Texas A&M University. See ya down the road!</p>— Kyler Murray (@TheKylerMurray) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKylerMurray/status/595981534730981378">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There's still some skepticism about Murray: teams need confirmation that he's actually out of the draft pool. Some say it's a leverage move.</p>— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) <a href="https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/595990982375710720">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As I understand it Murray could ask to be taken out of the draft pool or refuse the predraft drug test & both would take him out of the pool</p>— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) <a href="https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/595992041512947712">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hard to think about the Kyler Murray story without thinking of Josh Bell. Also "opted out", got drafted anyway and money talked.</p>— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) <a href="https://twitter.com/injuryexpert/status/595994479015829504">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> And also, he's having an OK season for Allen on the diamond. Not that HS stats matter in the grand scheme of things, but he's slashing .286/.444/.387 with just 3 RBI. He's been DHing all season for them.
A lot of Luhnow's picks are really playing well: Reed, Davis, Mengden, Fisher, Kemp, McCullers, Phillips, Tucker, Fontana, Aplin...Appel needs to really string some good starts together, and Correa is the GOAT, but our depth is pretty good, not to mention the minor league pieces he's picked up in trades: Velazquez, Hader I believe too Appel pick really shows you that MLB teams really need access to medical files. I really have no idea how this isn't in place yet. Both MLB and NBA allow it.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Jacob Nix is no longer advised by Casey Close or Excel. Searching for new advisor ahead of draft.</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/596068724450275328">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">rhp jacob nix, whose lost $1.5M deal w/ astros, bizarrely, over aiken physical, has left casey close. to hire new agent soon.</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/596075640656437248">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">nix wrote to mlb about leaving casey close: i felt this was the best business decision for me & my family at this time."</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/596076003409195008">May 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Whatever the reason he left Close was is insignificant. What is significant is that it was ALL the Astros fault!!!!
Nix finally realized he got screwed by Close. Astros concerns were vindicated no matter how you dice it up. It show Close was being dishonest and did not advise Aiken correctly. Astros threw them a life line, with the 5+ million dollar offer. Just to avoid further PR problems. but the Aiken camp completely ignored any renewed negotiation from the Astros. But only way Astros could take the injury risk was by adding Nix and Marshall to the equation. In 5 years when Aiken is a working stiff, he will have a new appreciation for 5 million dollars. Nix and Marshall will get MLB contracts, though both have weakened their stances after forgoing college.
Law says that Houston is "out" on Rodgers. http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51768/mlb-insider-keith-law
If we pass on Rodgers at 2 Imma be pissed. He can stay at SS and we can just move Correa to 3B and we would be set on the left side of the IF for 10+ years. Elite SS's come at a premium.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mock <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLBDraft?src=hash">#MLBDraft</a> 1.0 is live on <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica">@BaseballAmerica</a> <a href="http://t.co/8BWGJTLuYM">http://t.co/8BWGJTLuYM</a></p>— John Manuel (@johnmanuelba) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnmanuelba/status/596686873596039168">May 8, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Spoiler 2. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt 5. Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant HS (Florida)
I think it's funny when a fan base or some fans are pissed if a team passes on a player that the fans really want. Almost all fans see a top 100 list or listen to a so called expert and base there whole opinion off that without ever seeing a game a prospect plays. I'm sure the Astros are putting in plenty of scouting hours to decide if a prospect is elite or not.
Are bats or arms inherently more reliable (or more projectable) at the top of a draft? Or is it just dependent on each player? There's obviously a higher injury risk in drafting pitchers, but I think our system needs more arms than bats. I don't really agree w/ taking a HS OF prospect at 5, but I'll grant deference to our scouts. Regardless, I'm excited to see who we reel in this year.
I have heard that the Astros have a hard on for Kyle Tucker.... he is a better athlete than his brother with a smoother swing.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some Projection Left: 2015 MLB Mock Draft 1.0 - by <a href="https://twitter.com/CrawfordChrisV">@crawfordchrisv</a> <a href="http://t.co/GW21AYBNXi">http://t.co/GW21AYBNXi</a></p>— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballpro/status/597784490577039360">May 11, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Spoiler 2. Dansby Swanson 5. Alex Bregman
Hopefully this isn't a case of the Astros passing up on the BPA to save a little money. Wonder what they see differently from every other analyst that has Rodgers #1. Swanson is going to be a starting infielder for a long time but his upside is nowhere near Rodgers.
