I missed that OFer for $2.5...thats above normal for the Stros, right? Dont they usually spread it around a lot of lottery tickets?
I think that is the biggest signing since Ovando, who I think was $2.6M. They have signed some guys since for 7 figures, but I think $1.5M or less. Before that I don't think they had any 7 figure signings.
I'm assuming Celestino is viewed as a potential top-10 prospect and a likely top-20 guy on most lists by the end of next season. Otherwise, hard to see this front office paying that much for a single international signing rather than spreading it around further.
Those international prospects are such wild cards it's hard for me to get too hyped about them. They are signed almost entirely on tools, not even tools as much a tool projections. I don't really pay any attention to them whatsoever until the get to and have success in american rookie ball.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Most prospect lists have him in the 12-20 range in the 2015 international signing class. However I would caution to take those lists with a grain of salt (same with top 10 prospect lists) as there is seldom a general agreement on the pecking order of prospects. Celestino almost signed with the Cubs and the Braves and Pirates were interested. Rest assured the Astros did not bid against themselves to reach 2.5 million. As a player Gilberto is a centerfielder and should project there long term. He has solid speed and runs excellent routes to the ball. He has played and held his own at a high amateur level. He is from the Dominican and has been around a lot of big leaguers. Ozzie Ocampo has scouted him since he was 10 years old and believes that his instincts as a hitter and player, coupled with a quick bat make him likely to always be a good player. He wasn't ranked higher because he isn't a massive physical specimen, he isn't the fastest player, he doesn't hit the ball the farthest ..... He just tends to hit and hit well.
Any thoughts from the "Astros Intelligencia" about Lazaro Armenteros? How much money (approximately) do the Astros have in their international bonus pool to throw at this kid if they really like him? Or would throwing so much money at a single international prospect (and a 16-year-old, no less) be too divergent from Luhnow's M.O.?
If Astros had their entire international pool, they wouldn't be able to do it within the pool. Assuming Astros have enough money sitting around, Astros will offer him contract about half what they think he's worth (100% luxury tax) minus what they think next two years of international pools are worth. If others offer more, he'll go there.
That offer sounds like a waste of time for all involved. Lowering the offer to somewhat offset the tax and loss of future pools is something all teams have to consider, but there's pretty much 0% chance the player would eat 100% of those costs himself. It would be both a naive and futile offer on the Astros part and possibly insult the agent.
??? Every player that has ever signed above the pools has eaten 100% of luxury tax. Agents understand that international players subject to luxury taxes are going to get paid ~4 million per expected WAR instead of the 8 million per expected WAR a MLB free agent would receive. Heck it is probably less due to variance in international players versus established MLB players.
Every team pays 100% of the luxury tax and that's certainly a factor to the player, but there's no way team's are going to be able to count future pool losses against the player's bonus. That's just not going to be a winning bid. For example: Moncada got $31.5m. The Red Sox got taxed $31.5m on top for a total of $63m. Additionally, the Sox lose two future IFA pools probably worth $4-5m each. That's a penalty to the Sox, not Moncada's wallet. If they had offered $23m they simply don't get him.
Red Sox already factored in pools. I heard Moncado would have been worth 80-100 million if he was a free agent. I was actually surprised he signed for so little, but didn't think pools would be valued that highly.
Granted, teams going over with multiple prospects can divide the costs of future pools over multiple prospects. Astros not being over already puts them at a great disadvantage.
What you need to know about new Cuban free agent Lazaro Armenteros By Mike Oz The teenager who could be baseball's next Cuban star was officially deemed a free agent by MLB on Monday. Lazaro Armenteros, a powerful and speedy 16-year-old outfielder built like a linebacker, will be up for grabs starting Feb. 10, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. Armenteros is a fascinating player, and we can start with the name. He's known mostly as Lazarito — one name, right out of the how-to-be-a-star handbook. Last Friday, he put on a showcase in front of 140 scouts in the Dominican Republic, according to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, who notes that scouts were impressed by Lazarito's five-tool talent but acknowledge he was a bit rough around the edges. Then again, we're talking about a 16-year-old. The Lazarito talk will start heating up in the coming weeks, so here's what you need to know about the Cuban youngster: • One American League scout told USA Today's Bob Nightengale that Lazarito shows signs of Bo Jackson and Willie Mays because of his combination of speed and power. Though, again, he's still raw. Another scout told Nightengale that the kid has "superstar potential." An AL scouting director told Sanchez that Lazarito is a "front-line guy." • Lazarito was born in Havana, the son of a Lazaro Armenteros Sr., who played on the Cuban national basketball team. The younger Armenteros is already 6-foot-2 and a muscular 205 pounds. In Cuba, he last played on the junior national team and notably hit .462/.611/.962 in the 15U World Cup in August 2014. The Cuban government blocked Lazarito from playing the next year (a somewhat common practice, if they believe a player might defect during tournament play). So he defected anyway, establishing residency in Haiti and working out six days per week to prepare for MLB showcases. He compares favorably to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was one of the top international free agents last July and signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. • Where might Lazarito land? Well, it's easier to start with where he won't. MLB made Lazarito part of the 2015-2016 international free-agent class (he had to get a special exception, since he missed the May cutoff date last year). Because of that, the teams that exceeded their 2014-2015 international bonus pool won't be able to pay him more than $300,000. So that effectively rules out the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks. • The Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants have already exceeded the '15-'16 bonus pool, which means they can still sign Lazarito, but will have to pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on whatever they pay him. (This also happened when the Red Sox signed Yoan Moncada). These teams will face the same penalties for the next two years that the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels and D-backs face this year. So the Dodgers, for instance, might see fit to pay the 100% tax knowing that they won't be able to sign any big-name international free agents for the foreseeable future. • At his showcase last week, Lazarito posted a 6.48 time in the 60-yard dash, which is about what Mike Trout ran when he was a prospect. The average 60-yard dash time is 6.7-6.9 seconds. • The team that signs Lazarito will know he has his eyes on big things. In his interview with USA Today, Lazarito mentioned that he wants to have a clothing line and a line of bats. As for on-the-field play, he said: • Lazarito has been mentioned as the Bryce Harper of Cuba, a reference that goes back to when Harper was a teenage phenom in the U.S. However, in an interview with MLB.com, Lazarito admitted he doesn't even know who Harper is. He is, however, texting buddies with fellow Cuban Yasiel Puig.
Next year will suck for international prospects. No Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Angels. A team already over the pool is the most logical to sign a guy like this.
In this signing period, which is still technically ongoing, the Astros have signed 46 players so far, according to Baseball America's Ben Badler. This total ranks 3rd. Only the Yankees (57) and D-Backs (48) have signed more international players.
Baseball America reviewed the Astros' activity in the IFA period today; here's the link. Here were the players profiled in the article. As we all know, Gilberto Celestino received the biggest signing bonus in the class. He doesn't have a plus tool, but Ben Badler notes that "he does a lot of things well and shines in center field." However, scouts are divided on his offensive upside. Yoanys Quiala is one of a handful of Cubans who have signed with the Astros over the past year; he got $794,000, and that total counts against the Astros' 2014-15 IFA pool. He's got a big fastball (up to 97), and with his 4-pitch mix (which includes a "potential plus" slider), the Astros will try him out in the rotation. Alejandro Garcia, another Cuban, got $750,000. He has ++ foot speed, "quick bat speed, and good hand-eye coordination" in the batter's box. He's already 24, so he'll have to get a move on. Yeuris Ramirez, a Dominican SS, got $500,000 on July 2. Badler writes that he has a chance to stick at short, but he still has room to fill out his frame. On offense, he makes "hard line-drive contact from the right side" with gap power. Enmanuel Valdez, another Dominican SS, also signed on July 2; he got $450,000. Although he's a smaller kid, he has a knack for barreling the ball with a "sound swing and good hand-eye coordination." His bat is ahead of his glove at this point. A few days after the IFA signing period opened, Cesar Cortez, an outfielder from Panama, signed for $100K. He has "mostly average or close to average tools and a high baseball IQ." Enoli Paredes, a Dominican RHP, signed for just $10,000, but his fastball is already up to 94, and he complements that with a hard curve in the upper 70s. Jose Luis Hernandez was purchased from the Mexico City Red Devils and went straight to the US for his debut. In 37.2 innings between Greeneville and Tri-City, he went 2-1 with 1 save, a 3.35 ERA, and a 42:9 K:BB ratio.
