[rquoter]#3Carlos Correa, SS AGE: 20DOB: 9/22/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205 AVG: .325OBP: .416OPS: .926HR: 6SB: 20 Only a horrific leg injury could have stopped Correa in 2014, as he had the seventh-best OBP and 22nd-best slugging percentage in the high-A California League despite being the circuit's youngest regular. A few days after the Carolina-California Leagues' All-Star Game, Correa slid into third base poorly and fractured his fibula, an injury severe enough that he couldn't return even to play in the Arizona Fall League or in winter ball. Correa's bat continues to impress as his approach is advanced beyond his years, but it's his defense that earns him even higher praise, as he looks more and more like he'll at least be able to start his major league career at shortstop, a position I expected him to quickly outgrow. He played all of 2014 at age 19, and may still bulk up to the point that a move to third base makes more sense; right now, he could play an average shortstop in the majors, while his arm and bat will both profile well at third base. He might be Adrian Beltre in the end, but I wouldn't give up on him doing a little Troy Tulowitzki before he moves. Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2014 rank: 4[/rquoter] [rquoter]#44 Mark Appel, RHP AGE: 23DOB: 7/15/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 225 W-L: 3-7ERA: 6.91IP: 83.1SO: 78BB: 24 Appel's 2014 started out in the most miserable fashion -- an appendectomy, an abbreviated spring training and an assignment to pitch on the surface of Mercury -- for the Lancaster Jethawks in the California League. He was awful there, showing velocity but neither command nor his old aggressiveness, and he had an ERA over 10 until his last start, his best at the level and all the reason Houston needed to promote him to Double-A, at which he performed much more in line with expectations. Appel's velocity remains plus at 93-97 mph, although the pitch is straight and he doesn't have much deception in his delivery. His slider is also plus, 84-88 mph with varying tilt, and he throws it for strikes, even using it when he needs to get ahead in the count. His changeup has been inconsistent from start to start, sometimes average or a tick above, with good arm speed, coming in other outings too firm at 87-88, like a batting practice fastball. He's fine out of the windup, but with men on base his delivery starts to come apart, and his command goes along with it. Appel is an outstanding athlete and very competitive kid, but his delivery had lost some of its fluidity by the end of the year and he tended to rush his finish, although he was finishing on line and in good position to hit the plate. I don't think he has No. 1 starter upside and is most likely a very good No. 3 or 4, a durable pitcher who can handle 200 innings and will turn in a half-dozen "wow" outings each year, but settles in as above average without becoming a star. Top level: Double-A (Corpus Christi) | 2014 rank: 11[/rquoter] [rquoter]#56 Vincent Velasquez, RHP AGE: 22DOB: 6/7/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 203 W-L: 7-5ERA: 3.53IP: 63.2SO: 91BB: 25 lastname Velasquez will flash the repertoire of a No. 2 starter but so far has had trouble staying on the field enough to demonstrate he can handle that workload. To continue to develop the breaking ball, he'll need to profile as that kind of pitcher. When he's healthy, Velasquez will pitch 93-96 mph from a low, three-quarters slot, cutting himself off slightly at landing but getting great extension over his front side, pairing the fastball with a plus changeup that has both good arm speed and late movement. That same slot puts him on the side of his slider too often, so it's often flat at 82-84 mph and he tends to try to guide it toward the plate. He was hurt twice in 2014, but neither injury was arm-related. The concern is that he's missed a lot of development time, with only 263 pro innings scattered over parts of four seasons, rather than that there's something wrong with his delivery or arm action. The fastball/changeup combo gives him a solid ceiling of an above-average major league starter. The key now is for him to make his 25-odd starts this year and find a third pitch that works from his slot. Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2014 rank: 82[/rquoter] [rquoter]#73 Colin Moran, 3B AGE: 22DOB: 10/1/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 215 AVG: .296OBP: .344OPS: .741HR: 7SB: 1 lastname I think most people in the industry were surprised to see the Marlins move Moran just 13 months after making him the No. 6 pick in the draft, but the Astros have to be thrilled to end up with a player they were seriously considering with the first overall pick that year (with which they took Mark Appel). Moran is a very high-probability regular, a left-handed hitter with a great feel to hit and more than adequate defense at third, showing great instincts across the board that help him play above his tools. Moran's swing isn't classic; he has a long stride without a big weight transfer but rotates his hips well and has very strong wrists and forearms for unexpected power, which he put on display against future playoff hero Brandon Finnegan in a Double-A contest in August. At third base, he has improved his footwork since signing, and while his arm is just a 50 grade, it's very accurate, so on balance, he should be at least a league-average defender. In the long run, Moran is probably more a hitter for average and contact than big power, but he has 15-20 homer juice if he wants to get to it. He has a high floor as an average regular at third but one who'll make some All-Star teams in years during which he hits .310 or so in the first half. Top level: Double-A (Corpus Christi) | 2014 rank: 55[/rquoter] [rquoter]#76 Brett Phillips, OF AGE: 20DOB: 5/30/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-0WT: 175 AVG: .310OBP: .375OPS: .905HR: 17SB: 23 lastname Phillips was a sixth-round pick in 2012, a draft in which I rated him as a third-rounder (he was 98th on my final board), and signed for just $300,000. After two quiet summers in short-season ball, during which he didn't hit a single home run, Phillips exploded in 2014, hitting 17 homers while showing off two other plus tools in his speed and his arm. Phillips can play center field, and might end up a 60- or 70-grade defender there, but has a cannon for an arm and wouldn't be out of place in right. Phillips didn't get bigger, but he made some adjustments to his swing that unlocked a lot of power, reducing a wrist lock he had when he loaded that made it all but impossible for him to drive the ball. Now he has a real power/speed combo that would play anywhere, with that upside on defense as well. Don't be surprised if he sets the Cal League on fire this year because of his tools and the hitters paradise he'll play in at Lancaster. Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2014 rank: Unranked[/rquoter]
If you just want the list here it is: Spoiler 1. Kris Bryant 3B Chicago Cubs 2. Byron Buxton CF Minnesota Twins 3. Carlos Correa SS Houston Astros 4. Addison Russell SS Chicago Cubs 5. Corey Seager SS/3B Los Angeles Dodgers 6. Francisco Lindor SS Cleveland Indians 7. J.P. Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 8. Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals 9. Julio Urias LHP Los Angeles Dodgers 10. Blake Swihart C Boston Red Sox 11. Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers 12. Carlos Rodon LHP Chicago White Sox 13. Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 14. Jorge Soler RF Chicago Cubs 15. Miguel Sano 3B Minnesota Twins 16. Hunter Harvey RHP Baltimore Orioles 17. Noah Syndergaard RHP New York Mets 18. Daniel Norris LHP Toronto Blue Jays 19. Braden Shipley RHP Arizona Diamondbacks 20. Henry Owens LHP Boston Red Sox 21. Archie Bradley RHP Arizona Diamondbacks 22. Jon Gray RHP Colorado Rockies 23. Aaron Judge OF New York Yankees 24. Jose Peraza SS/2B Atlanta Braves 25. Kyle Zimmer RHP Kansas City Royals 26. Dylan Bundy RHP Baltimore Orioles 27. David Dahl OF Colorado Rockies 28. Joc Pederson OF Los Angeles Dodgers 29. Eduardo Rodriguez LHP Boston Red Sox 30. Alex Meyer RHP Minnesota Twins 31. Nomar Mazara OF Texas Rangers 32. Austin Meadows OF Pittsburgh Pirates 33. Eddie Butler RHP Colorado Rockies 34. Tyler Kolek RHP Miami Marlins 35. Jorge Alfaro C Texas Rangers 36. Jameson Taillon RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 37. Aaron Blair RHP Arizona Diamondbacks 38. Raul Mondesi Jr. SS Kansas City Royals 39. Hunter Renfroe OF San Diego Padres 40. Jesse Winker LF Cincinnati Reds 41. Michael Conforto LF New York Mets 42. Dalton Pompey CF Toronto Blue Jays 43. Nick Gordon SS Minnesota Twins 44. Mark Appel RHP Houston Astros 45. Kevin Plawecki C New York Mets 46. Andrew Susac C San Francisco Giants 47. Mike Foltynewicz RHP Atlanta Braves 48. Sean Newcomb LHP Los Angeles Angels 49. Robert Stephenson RHP Cincinnati Reds 50. Ryan McMahon 3B Colorado Rockies 51. Aaron Sanchez RHP Toronto Blue Jays 52. Jake Thompson RHP Texas Rangers 53. Kohl Stewart RHP Minnesota Twins 54. Orlando Arcia SS Milwaukee Brewers 55. Rafael Devers 3B Boston Red Sox 56. Vincent Velasquez RHP Houston Astros 57. Aaron Nola RHP Philadelphia Phillies 58. Andrew Heaney LHP Los Angeles Angels 59. Alex Jackson RF Seattle Mariners 60. Josh Bell OF Pittsburgh Pirates 61. D. J. Peterson 1B Seattle Mariners 62. Stephen Piscotty OF St. Louis Cardinals 63. Joe Ross RHP Washington Nationals 64. Marco Gonzales LHP St. Louis Cardinals 65. Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets 66. Ozhaino Albies SS Atlanta Braves 67. Tim Anderson SS Chicago White Sox 68. Raimel Tapia OF Colorado Rockies 69. Amed Rosario SS New York Mets 70. Manuel Margot CF Boston Red Sox 71. Michael Taylor CF Washington Nationals 72. J.T. Realmuto C Miami Marlins 73. Colin Moran 3B Houston Astros 74. Austin Hedges C San Diego Padres 75. Reynaldo Lopez RHP Washington Nationals 76. Brett Phillips OF Houston Astros 77. Alex Reyes RHP St. Louis Cardinals 78. Justin O'Conner C Tampa Bay Rays 79. Grant Holmes RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 80. Greg Bird 1B New York Yankees 81. Matt Olson 1B Oakland Athletics 82. Tyrell Jenkins RHP Atlanta Braves 83. Daniel Robertson SS Tampa Bay Rays 84. Brad Zimmer CF Cleveland Indians 85. Derek Hill CF Detroit Tigers 86. Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez RHP Texas Rangers 87. Rob Kaminsky LHP St. Louis Cardinals 88. Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals 89. Alen Hanson 2B/SS Pittsburgh Pirates 90. Kyle Schwarber C Chicago Cubs 91. Brandon Nimmo OF New York Mets 92. Clint Frazier OF Cleveland Indians 93. Rio Ruiz 3B Atlanta Braves 94. Spencer Adams RHP Chicago White Sox 95. Franklin Barreto SS Oakland Athletics 96. Luis Ortiz RHP Texas Rangers 97. Jose Berrios RHP Minnesota Twins 98. A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals 99. Kyle Freeland LHP Colorado Rockies 100. Max Fried LHP Atlanta Braves Thank you!
The Astros could have easily had #1,#2 and #12 on the list.... instead we have #3, #44 and a draft pick. FWIW I prefer Correa over Buxton.... but imagine Correa, Bryant and Rondon.
Thanks, I was looking for just the list, that Rockets12 provided. Thank you sir for the Astros' prospect reports.
Lol, he took a dig at the Astros. "Foltynewicz went from Houston to Atlanta in the January trade that sent Evan Gattis to the Astros, but he alone is a more valuable asset than Gattis is and should help Atlanta in the near term."
Keith Law likes the Astros, but does not like Evan Gattis at all. FWIW I tend to agree with Law on Gattis.
I'm no Gattis fan (well, I am a Gattis fan, but you know what I mean), but I do think Gattis starts getting underrated when people focus too much on what he can't do, rather than what he can do. I still think Folty has a lot of question marks as to his ability to be a quality big league pitcher.
The issue with Appel over Bryant isn't the Bryant is currently the higher rated prospect. It has more to do with the Astros placing a premium on power when they could have had the best power bat in the draft the year before last. Instead of looking forward to what Bryant might do this year and trading Folty and Ruiz for rotation help (or maybe even still Gattis and creating the Crawford Crushers), we just have Gattis and Appel whose likely still a year away without appearing to have the upside we all thought coming out of Stanford. Can't change any of that now so go Gattis and go Appel! By the way, anyone have a current Astros farmhand they think should have been ranked in the top 100 but didn't make the cut?
Draft is not exact science. I'm happy with Appel, but would be happier with Bryant. On guys that should be in the top 100, they hit the big five. Fisher will likely be there next year. Reed and Davis, too, if they keep hitting.
Aside from the 5 guys that were on ESPN's list, Lance McCullers and Michael Feliz were on MLB's top 100 at the end of last year. Josh Hader, AJ Reed, DJ Fisher and Teoscar Hernandez could all be top 100 guys if they repeat last years results at higher levels. Plus the 2 guys we draft high next year will probably be be top 100 guys. With only Appel as a possible graduate, thats 12-13 guys that could be top 100 next year. Some of them are gonna struggle, so they won't all do it, but this system is still extremely deep even with the trades this offseason.
Appel has every bit as much upside as when they drafted him, indeed his fastball has gone up a couple ticks. What has changed is his floor. Prior to struggling in the minors last year, it was assumed he would at worst be a #4-5 type starter.
Keith Law had Correa at #3, Appel at #44, Velasquez at #56, Moran at #73 and Phillips #76. John Sickels had the following grades: 1) Carlos Correa, SS, Grade A 2) Mark Appel, RHP, Grade B+ 3) Michael Feliz, RHP, Grade B+/Borderline B 4) Vince Velasquez, RHP, Grade B/Borderline B+ 5) Domingo Santana, OF, Grade B 6) Brett Phillips, OF, Grade B 7) Josh Hader, LHP, Grade B 8) Lance McCullers, RHP, Grade B/Borderline B- 9) Derek Fisher, OF, Grade B/Borderline B- 10) Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Grade B-/Borderline B 11) Colin Moran, 3B, Grade B-/Borderline B 12) Tony Kemp, 2B, Grade B-/Borderline B where A+ player who can go straight from draft to staring in the MLB A top 5 A- top 25 B+ top 50 B top 100 Sickels has 7 Astros as top 100 players and 5 Astros who just missed.
Keith Law's Top 10: [rquoter]Organization Ranking: 3 I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Astros prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016. Top 10 prospects 1. Carlos Correa, SS 2. Mark Appel, RHP 3. Vincent Velazquez, RHP 4. Colin Moran, 3B 5. Brett Phillips, OF 6. Lance McCullers, Jr., RHP 7. Michael Feliz, RHP 8. Derek Fisher, OF 9. Josh Hader, LHP 10. JD Davis, 3B/1B Overview The Astros have lost as many players from their 2014 top 10 -- six -- to trades and graduations as the Detroit Tigers, who are ranked last of all MLB farm systems, did for 2015, but Houston's system was so strong already that they backfilled with enough talent to remain a top-three system. Correa is the one clear future star, while the outlook on Appel dimmed somewhat after his struggles in the California League and delivery issues with men on base, but the surge of Phillips and a solid group of college players added in the 2014 draft helped as well. McCullers is a future closer, starting with mid-90s stuff and a plus breaking ball, but he has a cross-body delivery with a long arm stroke that will probably never produce command. Feliz might also end up in the pen, in part because he's already on the 40-man roster and might run out of options before he's ready to join a big league rotation; his fastball is 94-96 mph and he's built like a starter, with a slider and changeup that are around average but wildly inconsistent. Fisher was the best player they signed from the 2014 draft -- they failed to come to an agreement with first overall pick Brady Aiken and will pick second this year -- a very athletic outfielder from Virginia who has plus raw power, a good approach and is a 70-grade runner, but who has never put it all together on the field for one full season. Hader is a future power lefty out of the bullpen, coming from near sidearm at 93-95 mph with 70-grade life, but the slider is inconsistent because he gets on the side of it and can't turn over a good changeup from that slot. Left on left, once per game, he could make some pretty good hitters flinch. Davis tied for 25th in the Midwest League in homers even though he was there for only 43 games; he's a big kid who moves around OK at third base, with the arm for right field if necessary, and he'll go as far as his hit and contact tools take him. I preferred him in the draft to A.J. Reed (14), even though the Astros took Reed a round earlier; Reed is first base-only, and he's power before hit with average bat speed at best. Teoscar Hernandez (11) has three, maybe four above-average or plus tools, but not the one that matters: the hit tool. He swings early and often -- without discretion -- and it's going to make him an extra outfielder rather than a potential All-Star. Nolan Fontana (12) continues playing average defense at short with great on-base skills, but I do worry about the lack of power limiting him when he's facing major league fastballs all the time. Domingo Santana (13) has been a huge disappointment -- going 0-for-18 with 14 strikeouts in your MLB debut doesn't help -- and there's real concern that he's just a 5 o'clock hitter without the aptitude to make adjustments when the games start. Max Stassi (16) had a mediocre year in Triple-A at age 23, but at least he was healthy all season; he's probably just a backup at this point, but there's enough power in there that he might have a year or two when he's good enough to be someone's regular. Osvaldo Duarte (17) is a shortstop for now but has played some center field because of his speed; his stateside debut was cut short due to a broken finger, but he has bat speed and a line-drive stroke that should produce a lot of contact. Lefty Reymin Guduan sits 95-98 mph as a starter, but he's also about to turn 23 and hasn't really gotten out of short-season ball yet; things will get interesting once the Astros stick him in the bullpen and let him go. 2015 impact Appel should see the majors this summer, although, given his rough 2014, I wouldn't blame the Astros for taking it slow with him. I'm not a big Preston Tucker fan, but he's hit reasonably well up through Triple-A and would play better defense in left than Evan Gattis. The fallen Delino DeShields Jr., was the eighth overall pick in the 2010 draft, a two-time top-100 prospect and was so bad and disinterested in 2014 that the Astros left him exposed to the Rule 5 draft, in which he was selected by the Texas Rangers. Even if he comes back to Houston, it's not clear he has much of a future in the organization as a left fielder whose work ethic and effort level are seriously underwhelming. Sleeper Daniel Mengden (15), their fourth-round pick in 2014, pitched most of the spring with a stress fracture in his back (from spondylosis) but should be fully healed for the spring. He pitched a little bit in their system after some time off to let his back recover, working from 92-94 mph with an above-average change and breaking ball in short stints.[/rquoter]
