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[2015] Are we actually good this year?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Butterfingers, Apr 30, 2015.

  1. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    Then why did you?

    Give the man a break. The vast majority of fans who will be cheering on this team now and into September/hopefully October will have not followed the team the last few years. The way they did the rebuild, while I supported it, I will not blame fans for taking a break from the Astros.
     
  2. vince

    vince Member

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    Good thread. there is so lttle Astros baseball being talked about. Awesome record. Elite calibur pitching. Some elite minor league talents inching way onto Houston. And the draft very soon.

    And to answer the question. this is baseball, there are ups and downs, even for the best teams have a roller coaster ride. so no, they arn't this good. But i think they are still a 78 or 79 win team.

    But it would be sweet being wrong.
     
  3. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    I think the biggest question about the team to me is Marisnick. The defense and speed are legit obviously. The hitting, who knows? Is he that one guy out of a couple hundred that just gets it all of a sudden and turns into a really good hitter or is this fools gold?

    Last year K rate: 28.3%
    This year K rate: 16.4%

    Last year walk rate: 3.4%
    This year walk rate: 6.6%

    Last year BABIP: .338
    This year BABIP: .442
     
  4. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    There's obviously no way in hell he maintains a .442 BABIP.

    Having said that his plus LD%, plus speed and improved K/BB rates lead me to think he can be a guy that maintains an .750 -.800 OPS, and that may be his floor. He was a top 70 prospect for 3 years, the tools were always there. He just turned 24, vast improvement at this age is not at all unusual.
     
  5. crose

    crose Contributing Member
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    My bad. I'm still feeling all of the craft IPAs I had at the game yesterday. Any thread that discusses the Stros awesomeness is okay in my book.
     
  6. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    I think the AL West right now has a lot of equally matched teams. It would not surprise me to see that 4 of the 5 AL West teams in contention until well after the All Star break.
     
  7. msn

    msn Member

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    umm...
     
  8. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    I agree that MLB/NBA is hard to compare. However, I stand by my original comparison, perhaps better explained below:

    The Jazz have a solid core of young players. Gobert, Favors, Exum, Burke, Burks, and Hood are all under 23. Hayward is only 25. This core is not only 1) improving individually, 2) gelling exceptionally well together [#1 D post AS break], but 3) the Jazz' contending window will likely include this very group of gelling young talent. Like the Astros, they are on the cusp of making the playoffs soon.

    Pelicans, on the other hand, have a rotation entirely of veterans. Gordon, Jrue, Tyreke, Anderson, Asik, Pondexter, Cunningham. That is a veteran squad, even when you throw in AD (And his 3 years of experience). The Astros are more inexperienced and run more in line with the Jazz.

    Most importantly, like the Jazz, not only is our young core gelling together at an exceptional pace, but that youthful core will mostly be intact when we do contend. However, a mostly veteran squad like the Pelicans will inherently have more roster influx than younger teams. Asik and Ajinca are FAs this year. Gordon, Anderson, AD the next. In fact, only 6 of NOP's roster have guaranteed spots next year.

    I understand the Pelicans comparison, I just think the Jazz, when you think about it, is more appropriate. But to each his own.

    I agree, they are totally different beasts. But I still think one can nonetheless draw some comparisons to help someone else understand a team in a sport he does not know. They will never be exact, but the general gist may help.
     
  9. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Yeah, he's obviously not THIS good, but I'm growing more optimistic by the day that he's an everyday regular.
     
  10. conquistador#11

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    sources: the astros can defeat both the axis and the allies of WWII
     
  11. tmac2k8

    tmac2k8 Member

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    They could legitimately win 80 - 85 games this year and challenge for a wild card or the division if it continues to stink. It will be the first interesting year for the astros since 2008 when they almost made the playoffs, Thanks Bud Selig.
     
  12. Airdough

    Airdough Member

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    If you get a chance OP, look up David Schoenfield's write up on the Astros before the season. He was the only person I found who believed this team could be good. Jonah Keri in his latest baseball write up mentioned a few areas where the Astros were lucky (starting pitching success) and unlucky (hitting). Even if both those areas approached the mean statistically, the Astros would still be a successful team.

    I am not sure the depth is there to sustain many more injuries like the one to Lowrie but if they can healthy, they can at least be in contention for that second wild card spot. As far as fans at the park, it will pick up by June once school is out and people catch on that there is actual MLB caliber baseball being played.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    He had another one within the last day or so. Good read.

    I liked the Astros heading into the season, predicting them to finish 82-80, higher than most projected records. Maybe I should have had the guts to pick them to reach the postseason.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/57537/the-astros-have-an-ace-in-dallas-keuchel
     
  14. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    For me, it's not even about that. I've agreed with the rebuild (instead of always trying to reload) all along. But not being able to watch them on TV for 3 years has definitely taken it's toll on my fandom. And unlike the Rockets, we didn't even have any nationally televised games to hold us over.

    I grew up always knowing the Astros full lineup, batting order, starting pitchers and relievers by heart. I was an Astros Buddy as a kid and a season ticket holder the last few years of playing in the Dome. Not being able to watch them on TV has literally been the ONLY reason I jumped off the bandwagon. As a life-long Astros fan, I felt like I was in exile for 3 years.

    But I'm sure having fun getting back on the bandwagon this year. Watching the Rockets beat the mavs, then switching right over to the Astros game the other night was like HEAVEN. I'll never take being able to watch games for granted again.

    I still miss playing in the NL, though....
     
  15. Buck Turgidson

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    Am I the only one that a) still reads the newspaper, and b) turns the sports section to the baseball page and for a split second instinctively glances up at the NL standings to look for the Stros?

    I've only been doing in almost daily for 30-something years, gonna take some time.
     
  16. sealclubber1016

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    I still instinctively say National League when talking about the Astros. Often times I won't even think to correct myself.

    At this point it doesn't bother me a lot. I certainly don't like it, but other things in the Selig era bother me a lot more. I don't feel my fan experience is diminished, it bothers me more on principal.
     
  17. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Yeah, every morning when I open my sports app to check the standings, I instinctively scroll up to the NL....then catch myself and scroll back down to the AL. Still feels very strange to me.

    I just miss playing the scrubs and cards every year. And I don't like the DH. But that's been discussed to death around here, so I'll leave it at that.
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    And the Braves, Mets, Dodgers, Giants.... My main problem, and I'll learn to hate them with time, is that I just don't give a rat's arse about a single team in the AL East or Central, save KC.
     
  19. conquistador#11

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    to be honest, i'm glad i no longer have to see the pitcher attempt to crush the ball into a bunt. what makes me is that we were forced into the AL. in my country, we call that extortion. that was not cool, selig.
     
  20. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    I still forget in-game sometimes. "Aw ****, the pitchers about to batohwaithesnot!"

    I'm about 93% over the move to the AL and, unless I move to a time zone or two west for whatever reason, the other 7% will never be happy. I just can't stay up for the late games any more.
     

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