I would like to preface this by saying I know this is a pipe dream scenario that all hinges on the front office opening their wallets and spending on free agents. 6. Sign Joe Nathan to close (2y; $8m) 5. Sign Jesse Crain to setup (3y; $6.5m) 4. Bring up Jon Singleton 3. Sign Jame Loney (3y; 19.5m) 2. Bring up George Springer 1. Sign Hunter Pence (4y; $58m) 2014 Rotation 1. Jordan Lyles 2. Jared Cosart 3. Brett Oberholtzer 4. Brad Peacock 5. Asher Wojciechowski SU Jesse Crain CL Joe Nathan 2014 Lineup 1. Jonathon Villar (SS) 2. Jose Altuve (2B) 3. Hunter Pence (RF) 4. George Springer (CF) 5. James Loney (DH) 6. Jason Castro (C) 7. Matt Dominguez (3B) 8. Jon Singleton (1B) 9. LJ Hoes (LF) We need to turn this thing around. Spending $30m could add 30 wins next season. That is if Crain spends some money and the rookies pan out. Adding Springer and Pence to the lineup bring people back to the ball park. Winning keeps them coming back.
It's not a bad idea. They absolutely have to make a significant improvement next season. The pen has to be improved, likely from outside the organization. I think Springer is going to be the Opening Day CF no matter what. Singleton will likely have to spend another month or so in AAA unless he absolutely destroys in Spring Training. I'd rather let Carter be the DH than spend money on Loney. Not sure about spending to sign Pence. He is in his prime years and might be looking to cash in...especially after the very solid season he had. This isn't going to be the place to do it.
Pence would be the extreme wild card here. You'd have to be willing to spend more than what SFO would give him and then he'd have to be convinced that your organization is a contender. Longhorn, that team would absolutely win at least 80 games. But it's not like it matters...80 games doesn't get you into the playoffs.
That team is not going to win 80 games unless everyone lives up to the upper end of or exceeds reasonable expectations, which is highly unlikely. (And your #1 starter has an ERA of 5.59 this year.) But beyond that, free agents aren't signing here at market value - why sign here if they could get the same money from a not-terrible team? If you want a top-tier free agent to come here, you most likely have to overpay right now.
Any pitching staff with Lyles as #1 will not be winning 80 games unless something clicks for him. I'll be happy if he sticks as a #3/4 at this point. I also agree with Carter over Loney as DH. Instead of Pence I'd rather have a temp in RF until Santana or Tucker are ready for a mid-season call up. Then throw 4 years $75MM at a Nolasco level SP. Definitely agree that Astros need to spend on bullpen help this winter.
First and only if you write Jimmy a check for $10 million, you can give him a call. No spending; Astros will be on pace for another top three pick.
Talk is cheap. And spending?! Spending on the likes of Carlos Pena, Rick Ankiel, Trevor Crowe, Edgar Gonzalez, Jose Valdez, and Sergio Escalona?! Sign me up! Ha, I'm just half-joking. Still not optimistic though and yes, I do think they'll fighting for another top 3 or top 5 pick.
My premise is that at least half the starters will improve and be serviceable. Lyles isnt terrible. He just hasnt put it all together yet. And we've sort of cultivated a losing mentality that creeps in the minds of young players, especially pitchers. If you bring some steadiness to this offense you give pitchers the feeling that winning is highly achievable. All my plans go to **** anyways if Springer winds up not ready for primetime. All I am saying is this is the time to strike. Spend a bit of money to help the bullpen and maybe add a decent bat or 2. It's win now time for the Astros. You will have the most talented farm system in baseball following the 2014 draft. Time to do something with it.
I'll play along, but I think the important thing here is to not focus solely on 2014, as decisions will be made this offseason with really the 2015 or even 2016 seasons in mind. Meaning if it makes sense to do and will pay dividends in the next 2-3 years, then we'll pull the trigger, but if something helps us win 10+ games in only 2014, we'll probably pass. I mentioned it in the draft thread, but I still like the idea, so I'll say it again: 1. Sign Tanaka - 6 years/$42M, with a posting fee of $38,777,558. As I've read he is essentially a Yu Darvish-lite, I took 75% of what it took the Rangers to sign Darvish. The complete breakout of his 6 years deal is: 2014: 4.125M 2015: 7.125M 2016: 7.500M 2017: 7.500M 2018: 7.500M 2019: 8.250M Not sure how realistic this will compare to Tanaka's market, but it at least serves as a starting point. Including the posting fee, this is essentially a 6 year deal at a shade under 13.5M a year. This is no doubt a large sum of money to pay an unproven pitcher. Although the upfront cost is high, I think over the course of his contract, he'll provide great value for a 2/3 (to be conservative, I'm hoping he can be a solid #3 pitcher, meaning he'd be better than most 3's we face). Also, there is bound to be additional revenue from overseas as a result of this signing, so however big or small it is, we can apply that against the cost to make it more reasonable. 2. Sign a Veras-type closer. I'd prefer to sign a guy to a 1 year deal with a club option or 2 after that, or possibly a vesting option depending on games finished or something. This would allow us to trade him at the deadline if Luhnow and company believe our rebuilding efforts are still a few years away, or we can hold onto him and let him close for us in 2015 and 2016, when we are hopefully much more competitive. 3. Profit Kidding aside, I honestly think that these 2 moves will really pay off this offseason. I could get greedy and say try and sign Jose Abreu, but I think the bidding will end up getting pretty high, and with Carter and Singleton looking to be mainstays at 1st, then the need isn't necessarily there. If the above is all we do, then our 2014 squad looks something like: Rotation 1. Cosart 2. Obie 3. Tanaka 4. Peacock 5. Lyles (until Wojo is called up) The above rotation won't wow anyone...not yet exactly. However, the signing of Tanaka will add another very nice cost-controlled SP for the next 4+ years. But assuming we draft Rodon with our 1-1 next year, and even with no additional pitchers being added to the squad, the 2015 rotation would look like: 1. Appel 2. Rodon 3. Tanaka 4. Cosart 5. Obie/McCullers/Folty/Wojo The expected starting 5 from 2015 through the next 5+ years looks to be absolutely deep, and in total, would cost us less than most teams pay their ace. Assuming league minimum contracts for the 4 other than Tanaka, as they would all be pre-arb eligible, let's guess that Appel, Rodon, Cosart, and the 5th starter, whoever wins that battle, will cost us roughly $3M in total. Add in Tanaka's 2015 salary, and we're only a shade over $10M for that rotation (even factoring Tanaka's average salary of roughly $13.5M, and we're looking at $16.5M for the whole rotation). That, to me, would serve as a huge competitive advantage over other teams, as others are throwing $10M+ for pitchers like Kyle Lohse or Edwin Jackson. As the starting rotation is usually the biggest piece of the pie, having a very solid, cost-controlled rotation for the next 5+ years would allow us the luxury to throw money to bolster our lineup and/or the bullpen if necessary. And doing nothing to our lineup this offseason leads to this in 2014: 1. Villar (SS) 2. Altuve (2B) 3. Springer (CF) 4. Castro (C) 5. Carter (DH) 6. Dominguez (3B) 7. Singleton (1B) - maybe not on Opening Day, but eventually (and Amador might make an appearance) 8. Grossman (LF) 9. Hoes (RF) Again, this lineup won't wow many folks as is, but considering we got the cavalry of Correa, DDJ Jr., Ruiz, Santana, and Tucker (among others who I am surely missing) helping out within the next 2-3 years, we should be fine. Eventually, I'll guess 2016, we could be looking at a lineup like: 1. DDJ Jr. (2B) 2. Correa (SS) 3. Springer (CF) 4. Singleton (1B) 5. Ruiz (3B) 6. Tucker (LF) 7. Carter (DH) 8. Santana (RF) 9. Castro (C) That 2016 lineup along with the 2015 and beyond starting rotation can no doubt make some noise, and I think can be legitimate contenders. All this with 1 splash signing really in Tanaka. The beautiful thing about this is that we'd have plenty of money to spend as necessary. Even taking the whole posting fee into considering as a 2014 hit, our 2014 team payroll would be less than $50M, while the 2015 payroll would be in the $30-35M range.
Definitely agree about a #3-5 pick. We may take strides forward next year, but other teams should as well. The early candidate for next year's #1 pick has to be the White Sox, depending on how much they decide to spend. There's little hope for them on the horizon, and I could see them attempting an Astros' style rebuild.
I would rather spend that the FA money be spent on a high OPS bat, a setup man and a closer. Luhnow might even entertain trading some prospects if FA is lacking. What the Astros do have is a bunch of young MLB ready starting pitching: Jared Cosart Brad Peacock Brett Oberholtzer Jordan Lyles Paul Clemens Dallas Keuchel Asher Wojciechowski David Martinez Rudy Owens Alex White John Ely Jake Buchanan Bobby Doran Lucas Harrell Packaging a couple of these arms with an A prospect like Jonathan Singleton might land a young high OPS, middle of the order bat.
I wouldn't have a problem if we did something like that, but I'd still prefer Tanaka. That is because I don't think you'd find a high OPS bat in his prime for that low of a contract. So regardless who you sign, you're hoping for a year or two of production before natural regression takes over and his numbers decline. To me the value of the dollar goes much further with a signing like Tanaka, because the 6 year contract carries him through his prime. You are probably paying for his best performance in his major league career. Granted, this comes with much added risk, as he is an unproven commodity, and can completely was out. But the potential rewards outweigh the risks in this situation. And although, like you listed, we have a plethora of intriguing arms, unfortunately, percentages say that most will not reach their potential, and will not impact the major league club like we hope. I can completely see the argument that a signing like Tanaka isn't really necessary, as we have good young arms in the pipeline. But, IMHO, this is the time to be over-aggressive, and step on the throats of our opponents. It sure would be nice to have 1 legitimate ace, but what about 4 ace-level pitchers in potentially Appel, Rodon, Tanaka, and McCullers? And all at a low cost too! I view a Tanaka signing like as a statement, and I think it will show the organization and the fans that they feel like the time to strike is near.
Im tired of being the worse in MLB is time to win big or tried in 2014 and beyond Tanaka sounds intriguing. Is there rumors Astros are in the running ?
If Astros do go Rodon with 1-1 I am pretty sure they go hitter with the second 1st rounder... Astros should have a record spending pool for the 2014 deep MLB draft. It is time not to suck anymore in 2014 mlb season.
