Got bored today while I was packing for my move and looked over the Astros top 30 to see which prospects took a big step forward prospect-wise. 2013 was an incredible year for the system; 2014 is shaping up to be an overall strong year but not quite as good. Plenty of guys are having strong seasons but the two guys I came with that have really stepped up are Josh Hader and Teoscar Hernandez. Josh Hader Drafted: 19th round pick out of high school in 2012 draft by Baltimore Acquired: in the Bud Norris deal along with LJ Hoes and a competitive balance ‘A’ pick (Derek Fisher) Background: A local find by the O’s, he was a projectable lefty with a ¾’s delivery who threw in the high 80’s. He put up strong numbers in his time at the Orioles’s GCL, NY-Penn, and Midwest league affiliates before being shipped to Houston. At the time he was not a highly regarded prospect, most likely due to lack of draft pedigree and concerns of his delivery affecting command. It is notable that even at the time of the trade he was known to run his fastball up to the mid- 90’s. What he’s done since the trade: He put up a solid 3.22era in 5 starts/22.1ip at Low-A last year. However, his time in QC was notable for 12bb to 16k’s in those 22.1ip. This year he’s really taken a step forward. Promoted to Hi-A Lancaster, he’s proceeded to make mincemeat of the circuit. In 15 appearances/10 starts, he has struck out 78 in 71.1ip to a mere 24 walks. His 2.27era actually leads the circuit now, edging out Ben Lively who had a sub-1 era for nearly six weeks. He made the Cali League all-star team. ESPN’s Keith Law saw him at the Cali-Carolina All-Star game and noted that he’s a lefty who throws mid-90’s nearly side-arm. Takeaway: When the Astros traded for him, he was probably regarded slightly higher than lottery ticket/fringe prospect. In a deep system like the Astros, TCB ranked him 26th on their offseason top-30 list. What we have now is a young (20y/o) lefty with mid-90’s heat who is currently dominating a hitter’s league. He’s almost certain to make the BA California league top 20 at season’s end and discussion of top 150 status isn’t out of the question. I bet he shows up in the 11-15 range in the next round of top 30 Astros prospect lists. Teoscar Hernandez Acquired: IFA in 2/2011. Signed for $20k as a favor to a family friend Background: He actually began getting a lot of press last year. Kevin Goldstein called him one to watch at the beginning of last year. He's commonly said to be a cheap 5-tools player, i.e. every tool has the chance to be average or better. (BP has a nice review of his tools here). Playing along side top picks Correa, McCullers and Ruiz at Lo-A, he got a lot of secondary attention. He put up a solid .271/.328/.435 line with 13hr’s and 24 sb in 123 games. He got some attention as honorable mention on some national top prospect lists and ranked 20th on the TCB top 30 list. This year: Promoted to the hitters’ haven Lancaster with Correa, Ruiz and McCullers (the 2012 trinity), he’s busted out in a big way. He’s currently hitting .290/.370/.557 with 13hr and 21sb in only 63 games. His .927 OPS is good for 9th in the league. Takeaway: It was questionable if he’d ever put up numbers that match the tools. Hernandez has done that and more this year in Lancaster. He still has a number of questions, notably if he can stick in CF and whether a guy without a single plus tool can be more than a second-division regular. But for now we can enjoy seeing another lottery ticket-type player having a breakthrough season. I also think he’s a candidate for a post-season appearance on the BA California League top 20 prospects list in addition to national top 150 consideration. Within the Astros organization, I also think he lands in the 11-15 range like Josh Hader. Honorable Mention: A guy I've mentioned a couple of times that I think is going to claw his way onto the next Astros top 30 list is Jandel Gustave. An extremely raw pitcher when signed out of the DR at age 17, he's put up a solid performance in his first taste of full season ball (3.81era, 8.4k/9, 2.3bb/9) at Low-A Quad Cities. He was the definition of a lottery ticket: a flamethrower who could touch 100mph on the fastball but had a stunningly bad 15.8bb/9 ratio in the DSL two years ago. His control has come along way. He now has to work on his command and secondary pitches. He could be a breakout pitcher next season.
Meanwhile. Correa was just carted of the field after sliding into 3rd on an RBI triple. Not looking good.
Looks like Correa severely injured his ankle tonight sliding into 3rd. Had to be carried off the field with a towel over his face.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Cannot confirm during broadcast but I was told Correa’s ankle is not broken. Hopefully more good news to come. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23JetHawks&src=hash">#JetHawks</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Astros&src=hash">#Astros</a></p>— Jason Schwartz (@jasondschwartz) <a href="https://twitter.com/jasondschwartz/statuses/480555112486555650">June 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Thank gawd
Jason Schwartz @jasondschwartz 6m Cannot confirm during broadcast but I was told Correa’s ankle is not broken. Hopefully more good news to come. #JetHawks #Astros Expand
Yeah wow. Thank god is right. Someone jumped the gun announcing the broken ankle and of course I post it.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>According to source, Carlos Correa may have broken his right fibula tonight. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23JetHawks&src=hash">#JetHawks</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Astros&src=hash">#Astros</a></p>— Eric Smith (@Eric_L_Smith) <a href="https://twitter.com/Eric_L_Smith/statuses/480568988083056640">June 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Carlos Correa, the Astros prospect, has a broken fibula. Done on foot first slide. Told it's serious, but usually not tough rehab.</p>— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) <a href="https://twitter.com/injuryexpert/statuses/480572418801405952">June 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Fibula has less weight bearing forces which is good. However, depending where they have to out screws can make recovery difficult</p>— Brooks Parker (@Subber10) <a href="https://twitter.com/Subber10/statuses/480573462965018624">June 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Majority of simple fractures have good outcomes. However if there are several fractures and the foot is involved, it can be rough.</p>— Brooks Parker (@Subber10) <a href="https://twitter.com/Subber10/statuses/480575778027892736">June 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I guess this is where the rubber hits the road. Appel has thus far disappointed and now Correa has a broken fibula. The system loses a lot of luster when two of the top three prospects have big setbacks. Here's where we see if Luhnow's system can sustain big hits.
This is why you need sustained success in your minor league system because most prospects do not meet their lofty expectations. The last two drafts will go a long way to determining the Astros future. FWIW I still think Correa will begin next year in AA and possibly in the major by beginning of 2016. I am not ready to write off Appel. If a year from now he isn't on the fast track, then we can probably just consider him a bust.
