And Peacock could very well be a stud. Way above average bottom of rotation pitcher at minimum is looking pretty likely. Who the hell cares about Melancon? You could tell me that he'd replicate his season last year for the next 3 years, and I'd still say there's no way in hell that I'd be willing to give Stassi, Peacock, and Carter all back for him. That's crazy talk. I'm not sure how any credible writer could think that trading a middle reliever (when he was performing poorly, no less) for (eventually) a package of those 3 would be hindering our rebuilding process. Baffling. Sounds like somebody with an ax to grind.
I was just about to mention that... I mean Stassi is a top quality catcher that could be a great piece for this team. Peacock finished the season pretty well with 6 of his 9 starts being considered "quality". Carter had strange home splits (I've made it obvious I am in his camp and think he can be a huge player for this team next year), and he is a good candidate for better numbers this year. That trade is looking like a win to me. You trade Melancon (a reliever that we didn't need considering the state of the team) for a SS that will be 30 this year that is often injured (playing more than 100 games once 6 seasons. You then trade this guy for a potential top 2 DH when he puts it together, a rotation worthy pitcher, and catching depth? All for (in the long run) a reliever? Uh... yes please. Also, considering Lowrie an All Star is just not fair. The guy does well in the first half of the year and then finishes the year with a .290/.344/.446 slash line and 15 homers? Sure, thats good SS production, but it's hardly worth more than using as a trading piece. In return, you get to plug in a now 23 Villar at SS to see if he is worth giving a MLB job. The guy should steal 35+ bases this year and should hopefully improve his fielding. Would make trade 10/10 times again. /rant
Yeah, given his mediocre-bad career to this point, and then Tommy John surgery in 2013, it is hard to miss him. He had plenty of talent, but he'll 30 and hasn't posted a quality season yet.
New article from Fangraphs today on the projections for the Astros infield: The Astros Infield is Interesting C: Castro - the projections say he's in for a regression 1B: Wallace - a known crap sandwich that at the minimum will keep Carter from fielding 2B: Altuve - apparently he was the 6th ranked 2B on ESPN last year. Who knew? They think his stats will be pretty similar SS: Villar - They think he'll be an empty 30-40 steals player with a league avg OBP and poor/inconsistent defense. 3B: Dominguez - Projected to do pretty much the same as last year DH: Carter - Same song as usual: lotta love for the power; lotta angst over the strikeouts. One thing I found interesting when I read over Carter's fangraphs page is that he was worth 0.4 WAR total last year but broken down into oWAR and dWAR it was 5.6 and -20.9. Now its an imperfect supposition but if Carter only DH'ed he would have been considered an above average player.
I am most curious about Altuve. I remember his regression last year after the injury, and I wonder if that played a major role at all. I don't expect him to be a lights out player, but I do expect him to be better. He had a .800+ OPS in the month and a half prior to injury and followed that up up with a 87 game stretch of .560 OPS and then had an .800+ OPS in September. Also, shortly after his injury, in fact the next day, Altuve lost his grandmother who was a huge person in his life. Baseball is a sport that creates emotional fatigue, and I think Altuve's injury and grandmother's passing played a bigger role than numbers can show. I think the place where we saw this most was on the basepath with him making irresponsible decisions. Any way, I am looking for Altuve to have a much better middle part of the season, and I think it is a fair expectation.
When you daisy chain the trades, I would hardly call these bad returns Hunter Pence for Jonathan Singleton Jarred Cosart Domingo Santana Josh Zeid Lance Berkman for Brad Peacock Max Stassi Chris Carter Kyle Weiland Jimmy Paredes Roy Oswalt for Asher Wojochowksi Jonathan Villar Brett Wallace Carlos Perez David Rollins Joe Musgrove Kevin Comer The Bourn trade was a disaster. Of all of Wades stupid moves trading one of the games best center fielders, who was under team control for another year, for a bunch or fringe prospects was the stupidest, and this isn't hindsight, we all felt that way the second the trade was announced.
Also, sorry for the spaced out posts today, but I have to touch on Villar, too. Why is he looked at as offensively empty? In 83 CC games in 2011 at age 20, he had 10 homers. The following year (where he suffered an injury due to being a dumbass) he had 11 homers in 86 games. Then, in 2013 before being called up from OKC, he 8 homers in 91 games. I wouldn't call 15-17 homer potential from a SS "empty power". If that's the case, y'all might want to have a talk with Jed Lowrie and his 15 homers last year. I am not saying that this guy is going to be the next power hitting SS, but I would be smiling with 40+ steals and 13+ homers from the guy next year if he improves his defense.
Certainly a bad trade at the time, but in hindsight, it wasn't a disaster. None of the Braves that we were clamoring for panned out other than Mike Minor, and it was never realistic that he'd be part of a return for Michael Bourn.
Actually as of today we lost on every one of those trades. We still need players to develop, but as of now, hardly any of those guys have done much at the MLB level. We can all see their potential, but it hasn't materialized yet.
Brandon Beachy? Julio Tehran (who probably wasn't realistic)? Randall Delgado may be decent still. And so may be Arodys Vizcaino, who hasn't been healthy. I have no idea why Mike Minor wasn't realistic (Wade originally asked for Minor and Delgado).
Villar did have ISO's that ranged from .135 to .165 in the minors. He's not without power. I agree with the projection systems that he probably won't crack double digits this year. Fangraphs posted an article saying ISO takes the longest to stabilize so his 0.076 ISO last year could very well be underestimating his future power. All that being said it'd be way more useful for him to put the ball on the ground and work on getting on base than pulling for HR's. I'd much rather see him with a .350 OBP than double digit HR's.
I agree on much rather seeing that speed than any attempt at trying to be a power hitter. I just think that he will happen to stumble into some of that pop once he grows acclimated. Interesting you post that article after people have been talking about prospects not improving tremendously outside of their first couple of years in the pros. Makes sense that the power would take a little longer to develop.
It doesn't. Mike Minor & Delgado was unrealistic, but he asked for it. To suggest Michael Bourn, an all-star CF under contract for another season and considered an extreme bargain, for a team that had been looking for a leadoff guy and a CF for years, wasn't worth Mike Minor seems crazy.
It's funny because the Bourn trade comes up every year and about the lack of prospects the Astros got back in comparison to what they received for Hunter Pence. Ed Wade had a chance to field other offers and for some reason didn't bother listening to anyone else besides Frank Wren (GM of the Braves). Here's the link below, read about the middle of the article where the timeline starts at 7pm. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/anatomy-of-a-baseball-trade-10202011.html Don't know who was on the other line, but could've been something good, who knows?
Basically, the article chastises the Astros for going for quantity vs. quality in each and every one of those trades... and you've highlighted just that, as there are a bunch of players you've listed that may or may not ever even make it to the majors, let alone succeed. The bottom line is that there likely is not another Berkman, Oswalt, Pence or Bourne out of any of those players... let alone two or three even potential all-stars. IMO, the team with the best overall player out of the trade wins the trade. Yes, the Astros got what they could for players that weren't going to help them win anymore... but doesn't mean they "won" the trade. I also don't see the Phillies, Yankees or A's being too broken up over losing any of those prospects (unless we can get a Jeff Bagwell-like "come out of nowhere" power surge). In the end, this potential success of this team's rebuild will largely be due to the high draft picks based on three horrific years of purposely sucking... moreso than what came about due to those trades. Had the trades of 4 all-stars netted more significant prospects/established players, perhaps the rebuild would be closer (instead of still likely 2-3 years away).
Yankees got little to nothing out of Berkman. Phillies got good production from Oswalt & Pence, as did the Braves with Bourn. Nobody can knock the Toronto trade, which gave up Lyon and Happ. I still don't why they gave up so much to try and finish in 4th place.
