2014 Astros Minor League Thread

I do think there is a lot of uncertainty in prospects in A ball. I don't see it as predicting the future. If a stat guy predicts 10 guys as a 2 WAR prospect, half should be better and half should be worse, on average.

 

Wow Woj at 10 and DD out. I'm not sure if that means they view Woj/Santana/Feliz well or have really soured on DD for some reason. This list would also seem to suggest that Velasquez will probably be a top 100 guy since it seems unlikely Singleton fell out altogether.

 

I think it is a combination of the two. DD, JR probably not rated as highly as he was, but still projects as a MLB player.

 

I wonder if it is due to position change. He had a good year in Lancaster, and followed it up with a solid AFL.

 

2014 Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects

1. Carlos Correa, ss

Background: The Astros had several good options with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. They could have taken Byron Buxton, considered the top position player in the draft. They could have taken one of a trio of college righthanders—Mark Appel, Kyle Zimmer or Kevin Gausman—or they could be a little more creative. By choosing Correa, the Astros were able to sign the No. 1 overall pick for $4.8 million, less than it would have taken to sign Buxton or Appel, freeing up money to sign sandwich-rounder Lance McCullers Jr. and fourth-rounder Rio Ruiz to above-slot deals. While Buxton was considered the superior prospect, Correa wasn’t a signability pick. He starred at the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy and on the showcase circuit in 2011, and as a shortstop, he filled a glaring need in the organization in a way that Buxton, a center fielder, did not. Since signing, Correa has lived up to, and arguably exceeded, expectations. As one of the youngest players in the low Class A Midwest League in 2013, he finished third in batting (.320) and top five in on-base percentage (.405) while leading league shortstops in fielding percentage (.973) and finishing second in total chances (551).

Scouting Report: Correa combines exceptional tools and outstanding knowledge and feel for the game. Some scouts worry that he’ll have to move to third base eventually because of his size and speed. He’s an average runner at best right now and likely will slow down. At 6-foot-4 and pushing 200 pounds, he’s already one of the bigger shortstops around. But others note that Correa makes all the plays expected of a front-line shortstop. He can make plays in the hole thanks in part to a 70 arm, and he also goes to his left well. Correa is more sure-handed than most young shortstops, with soft hands and a refined internal clock that lets him know when to charge a ball, when to stay back and when to put the ball in his back pocket. At the plate, he should hit for above-average power and average. He has the bat speed to rip fastballs, but his advanced pitch recognition means he also has excellent plate coverage and lays off breaking balls out of the zone. While he hangs in against righthanders, he hit .432/.523/.550 against southpaws in 111 at-bats for Quad Cities in 2013. Though he hit just nine home runs in his first full season, he has 20-25 homer potential.

The Future: Correa is one of those rare players who could hit in the middle of the lineup while playing a solid shortstop. Even if he ends up moving to third base, he has the power to be an impact player. After posting loud numbers in 2013, he could take those numbers to a new stratosphere at the hitter’s paradise that is high Class A Lancaster in 2014.


2. George Springer, of

Background: Springer has a fascinating family history, but since signing for $2.525 million as the 11th pick in the 2011 draft, he’s made his own name, including a strong run at a 40-40 season in 2013 during which he fell three home runs short of the feat.

Scouting Report: Springer is one of the best of the Mike Cameron-inspired line of power/speed center fielders who collect strikeouts and home runs in abundance. He goes to the plate looking for a pitch on the inner half that he can drive, and he succeeded frequently in doing so in 2013. His outstanding bat speed allows him to catch up to most anything, but his aggressive approach often leaves him out on his front foot when he faces quality offspeed stuff. Because his arm, speed, power and defense all rate as at least plus tools, Springer can be productive even as he strikes out excessively. A .299 career minor league hitter, he won’t approach that in the majors unless he starts lining pitches on the outer half to right field more often.

The Future: Though he’s not on the 40-man roster, Springer should earn a big league spot in Houston’s woeful outfield in 2014. If he makes enough contact to hit .270 in the big leagues, he’s a perennial all-star. He has enough other tools to help a team win if he’s a .240 hitter.


3. Mark Appel, rhp

Background: The Astros flirted with taking Appel, who lived in Houston until he was 12, with the first pick in the 2012 draft, but they weren’t sure he’d sign for the $6 million they were offering, so they passed. The move ended up paying off for Appel. He was able to finish his Management Science and Engineering degree at Stanford and ended up signing a $6.35 million bonus as the No. 1 overall pick.

Scouting Report: Appel can’t match the pure gas of fellow first-rounder Jonathan Gray, but he does have one of the best fastballs in his draft class. He sits 93-96 mph and will touch 99 from a clean delivery. Appel pairs his fastball with a potentially plus slider and an average to plus changeup. His stuff was crisper and firmer as an amateur than in his pro debut. He didn’t show as much velocity, sitting 88-94 mph some nights at low Class A Quad CIties. He would tip his changeup by slowing his arm, and he struggled to locate his slider. Amateur scouts saw a potential front-line starter, but pro scouts saw a middle-of-the-rotation candidate.

The Future: Appel should move quickly, but the Astros have no need to rush him. He’ll start the 2014 season at high Class A Lancaster or Double-A Corpus Christi, depending on how spring training goes. No one would be surprised to see him in Houston by the end of the year.


4. Mike Foltynewicz, rhp

Background: Foltynewicz wasn’t a consensus first-round pick when the Astros picked him 19th overall in 2010, making him the first Illinois high school pitcher to be selected in the first round since Kris Honel in 2001. He’s developed into one of the top power arms in the minors and reached Double-A Corpus Christi for the first time in his third full season.

Scouting Report: No minor league starter touched 100 mph more often in 2013 than Foltynewicz, as it was a regular part of his repertoire, and he hit 101 and 102 on occasion. He doesn’t locate his fastball with precision, so even when he’s sitting 96-98 mph, it flattens out when he leaves it up, making it a hittable pitch. When he locates down in the zone, it’s a wipeout pitch with good sink. The Astros let him work on both his slider and curveball again after emphasizing the slider in 2012. While both breaking balls can be plus, he throws as many below-average offerings as above-average ones. His changeup will probably always be his fourth pitch, butit flashes average.

The Future: Some scouts think Foltynewicz will end up as an elite reliever because of his control issues—he walked 4.6 batters per nine innings in 2013—but his frame, stamina and delivery all point to him being at least a mid-rotation starter if he can throw more strikes.


5. Lance McCullers Jr., rhp

Background: The number 41 fits the McCullers family. The Phillies selected Lance Sr. 41st overall in the 1982 draft, and he wore No. 41 at the peak of his seven-year major league career. The Astros drafted Lance Jr. 41st overall in 2012 and signed him for $2.5 million, more than his father earned in his big league career.

Scouting Report: McCullers has two potential 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. He fires a 93-98 mph fastball that he sometimes struggles to keep in the zone because of its excellent life. His breaking ball can be described as either a curveball or slider, but either way it has 11-to-5 downward movement. At 81-85 mph it’s harder than the average curveball. He’s equally effective against lefties and righties because of the power and bite on his breaking ball. Scouts wonder if McCullers will wind up in the bullpen, because his changeup is well below average now. He throws it because he knows he has to develop it, but it lacks deception, separation or movement.

The Future: Teams don’t usually send top pitching prospects to a hitter’s haven like high Class A Lancaster—at least not for long—but McCullers, Vince Velasquez, Andrew Thurman and maybe Mark Appel could be headed there in 2014. Long-term, McCullers could end up as a front-line starter if his changeup develops. If not, he could be a closer, like his father.


6. Vince Velasquez, rhp

Background: When he’s been healthy, Velasquez has been an effective pitcher, but staying healthy has been a battle. He didn’t pitch as a high school junior because of a strained elbow ligament and stress fracture in his arm. After impressing scouts as a pitcher and shortstop as a senior, he further damaged the elbow ligament in his pro debut at Rookie-level Greeneville in 2010, requiring Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. The Astros have been cautious since then, limiting Velasquez to nine starts in 2012 before letting him take a larger role in 2013.

Scouting Report: On a low Class A Quad Cities staff that included Lance McCullers Jr., Mark Appel and Josh Hader, he convinced some scouts he’ll be the best of the group. Velasquez has two plus pitches now and the chance to have a third average pitch. His fastball is an easy 92-95 mph and his changeup is extremely advanced for an inexperienced pitcher. He needs to tighten his below-average, loopy curveball, but he does show the feel to spin it.

The Future: Velasquez’s delivery has a slight crossfire aspect to it, but otherwise he throws free and easy. He’s in the picture for a crowded high Class A Lancaster rotation in 2014.


7. Jonathan Singleton, 1b

Background: Acquired from the Phillies in the 2011 Hunter Pence trade, Singleton appeared to be on track to be Houston’s everyday first baseman in 2013. Instead, Singleton drew a 50-game suspension following a second positive test for mar1juana. He was out of shape when he returned and struggled.

Scouting Report: While Singleton may have had a disastrous 2013 season, he still ranks among the best first-base prospects in the game. He shows excellent bat speed, draws walks and has plus raw power. While he struggled to make contact in 2013, he did show more willingness to pull the ball when he got pitches to drive. He needs to do a better job of hanging in versus lefthanders, but when he’s locked in, he hits screaming line drives to all fields. He’s an average first baseman with solid hands but a poor arm. He’s a below-average runner.

The Future: The Astros added Singleton to the 40-man roster on Oct. 2, nearly two months before they needed to for Rule 5 draft purposes, and he no longer will be tested for recreational drugs. Singleton will return to Triple-A to start 2014. He still has middle-of-the-order potential.


8. Domingo Santana, of

Background: Former general manager Ed Wade kicked off the Astros’ rebuild in July 2011 with the Hunter Pence trade, which brought back two 2013 big league rookies, righthanders Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid, plus Jonathan Singleton and Santana. Signed for $330,000 in 2009, Santana jumped straight to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League as a 16-year-old, which helps explain how he has more than 1,750 at-bats even though he’ll play most of the 2013 season at age 21.

Scouting Report: He fits the prototype of what scouts look for in a power-hitting right fielder, combining strength with athleticism. He’s average defensively with an above-average arm, and while he’s a physical 6-foot-5, he’s an average runner who even filled in as a center fielder at times in 2013. At the plate, Santana’s long arms ensure that he’ll always strike out some, something he exacerbates with a high hand position, which forces the bat to travel a long way to get through the zone. But when he gets his arms extended, he can hit the ball out of the park to all fields. At Double-A Corpus Christi in 2013, 11 of his 25 home runs went to right or center field.

The Future: Ready for Triple-A and added to the 40-man roster, Santana is ahead of schedule, but he needs further refinement before he’s ready to be a power threat in the middle of the Astros’ lineup.


9. Michael Feliz, rhp

Background: If not for a positive drug test, Feliz likely would be positioned on the Athletics prospect list right now. He originally signed with Oakland for $800,000 in 2010, but that contract was voided after he tested positive for an anabolic steroid. Feliz then signed with the Astros for half of his initial bonus. Suspended for 50 games in 2010, he took a big step forward in 2013 at short-season Tri-City. He gave up just 10 extra-base hit while leading the New York-Penn League ERA title at 1.96.

Scouting Report: Feliz, like many Astros pitchers, has benefited from the organization’s emphasis on athletic deliveries that help develop velocity. He sat at 88-92 mph when he signed, but now he sits 93-96 and touches 98 from a lightning-quick arm. His velocity plays even better because of the excellent extension he gets. Feliz’s delivery does have a bit of recoil at the end and involves some effort. His command sometimes wavers because his arm trails his lower body, but he already has above-average control and doesn’t miss the zone much. His slider flashes average to plus, and he can throw it for strikes or bury it. His average changeup features late tumble, though he could use it more often.

The Future: Feliz is a long way from the big leagues, but he has the makings of a three-pitch mix and he’s more than ready for low Class A Quad Cities in 2014.


10. Asher Wojciechowski, rhp

Background: Timing may be everything for Wojciechowski. Selected as part of the Blue Jays’ pitching-rich 2010 draft that also included Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, he joined the Astros along with six other players at the 2012 trade deadline in the deal that sent J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon to Toronto. Wojciechowski gets outs by locating an average 90-93 mph fastball to both sides of the plate and mixing in an average slider and changeup with a tick-above-average control.

Scouting Report: Since joining the Astros, he’s learned to get more downward plane on his fastball, in part because he made tweaks to lead more with his hips in his delivery. His fastball also has improved movement now. Wojciechowski does a good job of helping himself by controlling the running game, and just two of seven basestealers succeeded against him in 134 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2013.

The Future: While he doesn’t have the high ceiling of other pitchers in the system, Wojciechowski is a relatively polished candidate to contribute to the rotation, and he has the advantage of reaching Houston before the next pitching wave crashes. Now a member of the 40-man roster, he could reach his ceiling as a reliable, durable No. 4 starter beginning in 2014.

 

Something else that I found interesting was that they had Jarred Cosart ranked 3 (Above Appel) on their top 15 players 25 and under. Does this mean they think Cosart will be a better player than Appel, or that he had a better season?

 

I don't think that's a projection, they're just saying Cosart is a more proven player right now since he's actually in the majors and Appel just has a month or so in the low minors.

 

I was a little concerned to read the section on Appel in that ranking. I don't remember hearing anything about it but were pro scouts really disappointed with what they saw from Appel in the minors last year?

 

Its pretty dumb to put a lot of stock in his debut year, for a guy who just came off a full college season, and had only limited pitch-counts in each of his starts.

I expect him to dominate in his first full season... much like Correa did.

 

Wondering where DD and Rio Ruiz are.

 

thanks for posting the write-up CometsWin. Was there anything good in the astros top 10 chat?

 

Forgot about Ruiz. I was too busy being shocked about Wojciechowski and DDJ, that I forgot about Ruiz. I like Woj, but I dont see him being above Ruiz and DDJ

 

Top 10 chat

Spoiler

Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper answered your questions about the Houston Astros’ Top 10 Prospects and the rest of their farm system.

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone, thanks for coming out as we get ready for snowflakes here in Durham, N.C. There are a lot of good questions about what's a pretty interesting farm system, so let's dive in.

Sammy (NYC): Does Jophet Amador bring anything to the table besides size and power? Is he in your top 30, and is he strictly a DH in the majors?

J.J. Cooper: We'll start off with a guy who is not in the 30. Amador didn't make the Top 30. He really looks like more of a Triple-A bat than anything more than that at this point. Could he prove the doubters wrong? Sure. But it's more likely that he goes back to Mexico and stars in the Mexican League again at some point. Leo Heras, the outfielder the Astros signed with Amador last year, is the better prospect and he did make the Top 30.

Ben (Leland Grove): Hey, JJ. Stacked system! How many of these guys are likely to be top 100 bound?

J.J. Cooper: I think you're looking at four to five locks with Velasquez, Singelton, Santana and even Feliz possibilities as well. It's a deep system. There are other organizations that have better tops to their Top 10 and Top 30s than the Astros, but not many can compare to the sheer volume of legit big league prospects that the Astros have in the system.

Casey (W): Why did Rio not make the top 10?

J.J. Cooper: Ruiz is 11th, so he didn't miss by much. Really him, Max Stassi and Delino Deshields Jr. would all look fine in a Top 10, but there were only 10 spots--it's a problem a lot of clubs would be thrilled to have. With Ruiz, he had a pretty poor first half of the season, but he did show the ability to make adjustments and rebound. He has a better bat than glove, and there are some questions about how adequate he will be at third base. Those questions were enough to bump him to 11 on a deep list.

Sammy (DC): Is Nolan Fontana likely to stick at short, moreso than Correa? How does his bat compare?

J.J. Cooper: Comparing Fontana to Correa is comparing a Jeep Wrangler and a Porsche 911. They are both motor vehicles, but there aren't really a whole lot of other similarities. Correa is more likely to stick at shortstop thanks to better range and a better arm and he's a better hitter with more power. That's not a knock against Fontana. Correa is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. Fontana is a potential utility infielder at the big league level. Fontana draws a lot of walks, but besides that there aren't a whole lot of plus on his scouting report. He's a heady player who gets the most out of his ability but he's a fringy shortstop and offensively his ability to draw walks borders at times on excessive passivity.

Tommy (Houston, TX): Who's higher on your radar between outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and newbie Danry Vazquez?

J.J. Cooper: Hernandez. Vasquez is really a one-tool guy at this point--he can hit but he doesn't have productive power yet and he is a below-average defender in left. Hernandez can play center field in a pinch, and he's got a chance to be as productive a hitter as Vasquez thanks to a solid hit tool and more productive power. If Hernandez could stick in center field long-term, he'd really stand out, but he looks more like a tweener who can play all three, but is a little overmatched in center and right field if you play him there everyday.

John Everyman (Smalltownvile, Texas): Where would Carlos Rondon fit in this list?

J.J. Cooper: At this moment, I'd say No. 1. It's a very good Astros' Top 10, but Rodon is the best LHP prospect in the game, pro or amateur, and it's not really close. Obviously we have to see how his junior year develops, but right now there is a pretty massive gap from him the the No. 2 pitching prospect or really any other prospect in this year's draft. The Astros will have to say all the right things about keeping their options open, but I think they themselves realize that it's going to be a different No 1 pick than the last two years. In 2012, they could have gone Correa, Buxton or Appel, which meant they knew they could get one of those guys below slot. The same was true in 2013, when they could have picked Bryant, Gray or Appel. Unless something unexpected happens, there will be no plausible alternative candidate to try to realistically get Rodon's price tag down to much below the full allotment for the No. 1 pick, or possibly even more (do notice that the Astros have went out an acquired a competitive balance pick already to add to their pool allotment). This is nothing against Jeff Hoffman who had a strong summer, but Rodon's track record is vastly superior at this point to Hoffman's and he has better stuff and he's a lefty.

Jack (NY): What is Singleton's future, considering most guys with his off-field habits never really reach their potential?

J.J. Cooper: I'm not really ready to write off a guy who's been popped for pot. Barring a change in the CBA, he'll never be subject to a suspension for a pot test again going forward now that he's on the 40-man roster. I think he'll be the Astros' everyday first baseman at some point in 2014 and he'll hold that position for quite a while.

Jim (Corpus Christi): How are the Astros on Telvin Nash these days? Obviously, he just needs to be completely healthy for a full year and continue to cut down on his K's, but when he does play, his power numbers are bigtime. Can we expect him in Corpus this April finally?

J.J. Cooper: Saying that Nash needs to cut down on his Ks is a rather massive undertaking for him. He struck out in 40 percent of at-bats last year and 50 percent of his at-bats in 2012. While playing in one of the best hitters' parks in all of baseball, he's hit .224 and .246 the past two years. Now he does draw walks to go with his strikeouts, but there's more reason to be skeptical than optimistic at this point. Yes, I'd expect to see him in Corpus Christi this year for what will be a very crucial year for him.

@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, JJ. Was DeShields' fall from the top 10 purely the result of new arrivals, or has his stock dropped since this time last year? What's his projection?

J.J. Cooper: As mentioned before, he's a legit top 10 prospect, but he's one in an organization that is loaded. I don't think moving to center field really downgrades his prospect status if he proves this year that he's a plus defender out there--he has the tools to be above-average in center. His 2013 season wasn't nearly as loud as his 2012 season but he had a hand injury that slowed him down in the first half. He's still a very intriguing potential top-of-the-order guy with more power than most premium basestealers.

@webberoo11 (Las Vegas): What drove the decision for Jarred Cosart ranking ahead of Mark Appel on the "under 25" list?

J.J. Cooper: There is still some wait-and-see on Appel. You don't want to overemphasize it as it was a brief look, but pro scouts who saw him last year were not nearly as impressed as they expected to be. I didn't find a pro scout who saw him in Quad Cities who was excited about what he saw. We'll find out pretty quickly this year if that was a brief and therefore inaccurate long-term look on a guy who was worn out at the end of a long year, or an accurate assessment of a guy who may end up being more a middle-of-the rotation guy than a front-end starter.

Steve (Orlando,Fl): Correa eventually similar to Troy Tulowitzki?

J.J. Cooper: At his peak. The guy he reminds me, and others, more of is Manny Machado. Both were really big shortstops who were average to tick-below average runners in Class A, but still were solid defenders because of their instincts and arms.

CyMature (Hardball Heaven): Thanks for the chat, J.J. Houston is getting interesting, eh? There's a lot of talent here, and some red flags (Springer's swing-and-miss, Folty's breaking ball, McCuller's change-up, etc.) What's your hunch on how many guys on this list actually become impact major leaguers?

J.J. Cooper: There are some red flags, but on a lot of these guys even the "bad" scenario is pretty good. With Springer's swing-and-miss, even if it doesn't improve, he's going to be a regular because of his power, speed and defense. Even if McCullers remains a two-pitch pitcher, those two pitches may be enough to be a solid big league starter, and if they aren't, his backup role is as a lights-out reliever, a role some scouts believed he could have handled last year in Houston even though he was working in low Class A. Foltyniewicz's breaking ball needs to improve, but again, a realistic "negative" scenario is power reliever, with a decent shot to be better than that.

Harry (Miami, FL): So, where does new SS Ryan Jackson fit in within your top 30?

J.J. Cooper: He was traded too late in the offseason for him to rank in the Astros Top 30. If you asked me right now, I wouldn't have him in the Top 30. He's a likely utility infielder, and it's worth noting he was just designated for assignment by the Cardinals while they kept Greg Garcia. He adds depth and is a useful piece to have around for Houston, but he's not a likely impact guy.

Terry (Austin): Thank you for the chat. I know saying Correa has "above average" offensive potential is not an insult by any means, but I was wondering if there's anything stopping him from being a big time offensive force? Like a .300 hitter with 30 plus home runs. Is it that he needs to perform at higher levels before anyone can entertain that, or are there limitations with his tools?

J.J. Cooper: No. His potential is to be an offensive force. I know he only had nine home runs last year, but he has massive power potential. It's worth noting that his BP at the Futures Game was every bit as loud as Miguel Sano's.

Aidan (Buffalo): M.P Cokinos was 23 yrs old at Lancaster but I can't help but think if he was 3 yrs younger we would be all over his offensive production. Is this a bit that will hold up to tougher competition?

J.J. Cooper: You never say never, but the logic is no, it won't. He was old for the league and playing in Lancaster which a hitting environment hitters dream of playing in. To put it in perspective, since the Astros moved into Lancaster in 2009, Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston, Matt Weston, Kody Hinze, Lee Cruz and Albert Cartwright are some of the hitters who have posted a higher OPS at Lancaster than Cokinos did last year. Pretty much anyone who pops onto the radar with a big year at Lancaster and without a longer pedigree of big-time production has to be looked at with some skepticism.

Matt (Virginia Beach): Springer improved his walk rate and K rate from AA to AAA, was that fluke or legit adjustments. Can he continue to improve once he's in Houston?

J.J. Cooper: Not a fluke, but it's a small enough sample size that there is some noise there. He did appear to get better at covering the outer half of the plate rather than just sitting looking for an inside pitch to yank. He's always going to strike out but there are some signs that he has some hitting ability to go with the power.

Matt (Virginia Beach): Astros paid McCullers like a starter and seem to be committed to making him a starter. How long is his leash before he heads to the pen? At what level does the lack of that 3rd pitch start to effect performance typically?

J.J. Cooper: It doesn't always affect performance. Ask Michael Wacha or Tony Cingrani, both of whom dominated big league hitters with effectively a two-pitch approach. Justin Masterson and Bartolo Colon are two more examples of two-pitch starters. You would like to see McCullers add a third pitch that keeps it from being power, power, power, but if you told me that McCullers was an exception to the rule who survived with two pitches, it wouldn't shock me. My guess is that he eventually adds a cutter because the changeup never really clicks for him, but that's just my wild guess so take it or leave it.

Pierre (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada): If Appel is considered a middle-of-the-rotation starter by pro scouts, wasn't there a better option at # 1 for the Astros, especially considering that he didn't come cheap.

J.J. Cooper: Obviously the Astros see him as more than that. But if you're asking me Jonathan Gray or Mike Appel, I'd take Gray.

Jason C. (New York): Hey J.J., always appreciate the chats. What's the word on two youngsters who made last year's Astros top 10—Delino Deshields and Rio Ruiz? Is the former now permanently an outfielder, and is that part of the reason he dropped? The latter had a much better second half in 2013, but how much concern is there after his slow start? Would these two both be in most teams' top 10s (i.e., they fell out because of the Astros being a top-five system)?

J.J. Cooper: Just to re-iterate this. Both of these guys, and Max Stassi, would make most Top 10s. The Astros list is deeper than most. I'm chatting about the Angels as their Top 10 goes up tomorrow. All three of these guys would be top five guys for the Angels.

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): I see Nick Tropeano fell out of the top 10 this year. Is there cause for concern?

J.J. Cooper: He took a step back and the org took a step forward. He left too many pitches up, his slider wasn't as consistent and his fastball will never blow hitters away. He needs to have a bounce-back year in 2014.

MJ (Valpo): How close was Danry Vasquez from the top 10? Figured he'd make a push. Seems like there's a lot of potential in this kid--how does his future look?

J.J. Cooper: Mentioned him before, but no, he wasn't coming anywhere near the Top 10. The reports I've gotten from scouts isn't nearly as optimistic as the ones you may have heard. He can hit some, but there's a long ways to go and there are some questions about how he profiles as a corner outfielder long-term.

Chris (Long Beach): Who are the top 3 candidates to be the #1 pick this year? Will the Astros draft based on need or will they take the best player available?

J.J. Cooper: Rodon, Rodon, Rodon.....I actually asked 6-7 scouting directors for other teams (not the Astros) about this and with one exception they said that this year there is really no one who is close to pushing Rodon for the No. 1 spot. That one exception said that he could see Jeff Hoffman battling for 1-1, but then he admitted that when you factor in Rodon's track record as a dominating ace for the past two seasons, his performance in the summer against Team Cuba and everything else, it wasn't really all that close.

Scott (Stamford, CT): Honest prediction on Springer as a MLB player but more so as a FANTASY player? Especially in points league that don't take points away for Ks couldn't he be an absolute monster?

J.J. Cooper: Yes. Springer could be a better fantasy player than what he is in real life because of his rare power-speed combo. Not many guys can get you 25 home runs and 25 steals.

Scott (Stamford, CT): Who will be the better FANTASY player, regardless of position? Springer or Correa?

J.J. Cooper: Regardless of position? Springer because he can run and Correa can't. But realistically, position matters in fantasy baseball. As a shortstop, Correa could be a fantasy stud.

dave (indiana): what ever became of jack Armstrong?

J.J. Cooper: He's never been healthy. At this point, it's a complete shot in the dark to project him ever staying healthy long enough to harness his once outstanding arm. He's topped 20 innings ONCE in the past five years. I don't think he even made the depth chart in the Handbook.

Billy (Houston): Looks like a pretty lukewarm assessment of McCullers. Why did the team spend so heavily on him if hes just a reliever? Will they just go ahead and convert him this year if he doesn't have a usable changeup?

J.J. Cooper: You and I read that scouting report differently. He has two potentially 70 pitches. There aren't 10 pitchers in the minors who have two 70s. It doesn't happen all that often, but there are pitchers who succeed as starters with two pitches, so there is no reason in the world to convert him until the minute you need him to relieve in the majors. The transition from starting to relieving for a guy with McCullers arsenal would not be very difficult, so you start him, keep letting him work on developing a third pitch, and see where it goes.

Dustin (Houston): Which pitcher in the low minors could be considered a deep sleeper in the system?

J.J. Cooper: There are a lot of names I could throw at you here, but I'll go with Gonzalo Sanudo. The Astros picked him up in a minor deal with the Twins last year, tweaked his delivery and helped him find an extra 3-4 mph of velocity. That turned a control specialist into a guy with plus stuff and pinpoint control. Sanudo's BB-K ratio in rookie and short-season ball last year was an amazing 50-to-2. There's talk he may go to the rotation in low Class A this year because he has the makings of three pitches and that impeccable control.

Ray Mileur (St. Louis): Assuming the rotation is; Feldman, Oberholtzer, Cosart, Keuchel & Peacock are the starters when the season opens, the Astros picked up relievers Albers, Bass, Crain, Downs, Qualls and Valdes, in the offseason, not leaving much room for potential starters like Clemens, Harrell and Wojciechowski getting any time working out of the bullpen. Do you see any of these potential starters, getting Major League experience, working out of the bullpen this season?

J.J. Cooper: Those five starters are highly unlikely to all get 30+ starts. Most teams need 7, 8 or 9 starters during the season. Last year, admittedly during a dumpster fire of a season the Astros needed 10. I'd expect we'll see several of those guys get multiple starts in Houston this year.

Clay (MD): What's your take on Josh Hader, the pitcher acquired from the O's during the season? Will his frame handle starting?

J.J. Cooper: Even more than the frame, there are questions about the delivery which is very funky. Scouts for other teams see a potential reliever, but again, there's no reason to give up on Hader starting for several years. A lot of these decisions end up coming down to what the big league club needs. As of right now, he's been durable with one full pro season in the books.

DJ (NorCal): Any reports on Reymin Guduan?

J.J. Cooper: If you go to a U.S. gas station, the highest octane gas you can normally get is 93 octane, but is you shop near a race track, you might find 100 octane. Gudan's velocity is race-car quality octane. He hits 98+ consistently on the gun, even if he doesn't hit his target all that often yet. He's raw, his secondary stuff needs work and his control is still in need of a lot of help, but not many lefties can match his pure velocity.

Jim (Orlando, FL): Who can you see breaking into the big leagues from the farm as a UTL infielder now that Ryan Jackson has been traded(2 months ago).

J.J. Cooper: Thanks for the reminder that Jackson was dealt away after being picked up off waivers. Matt Eddy will be disappointed that I forgot that. Long-term, it’s likely Nolan Fontana, but Ronald Torreyes is another possibility now that he's shown he can handle shortstop enough to be a utility guy. To start the season this year? I don't see any legit prospect in the system that's ready for the job.

Ricardo Montelbon (Houston): What caused the slide for Jonathan Singleton? Was it a case of the talent around him getting better, the suspension concerns or a lower projected ceiling due to uninspiring performance last year? Thanks.

J.J. Cooper: He had a poor year, but even more than that, he got passed by other guys getting better. Springer had a breakout year, McCullers demonstrated he could pitch a full pro season. They drafted Appel. Velasquez took a big step forward and Foltyniewicz is now nearly as close to the big leagues as Singleton while continuing to add velocity.

Roger (Greenville, SC): What's the knock on Amador besides weight?

J.J. Cooper: He's more a hitter than a power guy. There are questions about whether he can handle plus velocity. He's only adequate defensively at first base. If he's going to be a hit first, average power first baseman who is a liability on the bases and is struggling to avoid being a liability at first base, it's an uphill battle to be an everyday first baseman.

Casey (The Music City): Where does Brett Phillips fit on this list, if at all?

J.J. Cooper: He fits on the top 30. He's a very good athlete whose tools right now are better than his skills. He has to turn those tools into productive skills as he gets more ABs.

Marvin (Corpus): When can I expect my prospect handbook?

J.J. Cooper: We're expecting them here in the office before long. By the end of the month. As soon as they arrive, we'll start shipping them out to those who have ordered it through us. If you're buying it through another retailer, it's still probably a month or so away.

Larry (Plattsburgh, NY): Being a big Astros fan, I try to convince myself that they have the stable of prospects necessary to become a dominant team, but some reason, I'm not that confident they will become a perennial World Series contender. Your thoughts?

J.J. Cooper: They have a lot of the potential pieces here, but a big part will be how they turn those pieces into productive big leaguers. If you asked me for a criticism of how this team looks to go forward, they still need a few more potentially average to above-average position players. It's easy to see Correa, Springer, Castro and Singleton as long-term regulars with a chance to be average to above-average. Maybe Jose Altuve can be another average player for the next 3-5 years as well. DeShields, Stassi or Singleton could end up being another regular, but I think this club will need 1-2 useful additions in trades or the free agent market to fill in some holes. They have plenty of money to spend, which will be to their advantage in filling holes in 2015 and 2016. This year should be the consolidation year, but by 2015, they need to be spending in free agency to focus on contending. Because the team has such a limited payroll now, they can even front-load deals to prep for the long-term (2017 and beyond) when guys like Cosart and Springer hit arbitration.

Jesse (Boston, MA): Rio Ruiz hit more homers, stole more bases and played in the same league as Correa(not saying he's better) and can't make the top 10? Must really be a deep system. What's your take on this?

J.J. Cooper: Glad you make the point that you're not saying he's better, because you won't find anyone in the game who would trade Correa for Ruiz. Yes, it's a deep system. The big question with Ruiz is whether he'll improve enough defensively to stay at third base long-term.

tim (albany): how does kent emanuel stack up?

J.J. Cooper:</strong> He could be a useful back-end of the rotation starter. He's not flashy and there are concerns whether his stuff will survive some pretty severe flogging during the NCAA playoffs last year, but he knows how to pitch.

Love the Game (Texas): After Rodon, what is the most need for the Astros in the 2014 draft?

J.J. Cooper: I don't think you draft for need, you draft the best player on your board (or the best player you can get at the right price) until you're out of the first 4-5 rounds. I think the Astros could go a wide variety of ways with their second pick, but I'll go out on a limb and say it will be a college guy with a reasonable price tag as they squirrel away money to sign Rodon.

Cary (Washington, DC): Is there anything positive to report regarding 2010 international bonus baby OF Ariel Ovando? The statistics alone don't seem to offer much. Thanks, J.J.

J.J. Cooper: They do tell a lot of the story. He's been a disappointment. This was a setback year. He didn't make the Top 30 this year, so it's more a case where he needs to prove it to regain his prospect status. A lot of his tools aren't as loud as they once were.

Joe LeCates (Easton, MD): J.J. thanks for the chat on this frigid day. I know Best Tools in an org. can really be a hair-splitting process, but how close was the choice between Foltynewicz and McCullers for best fastball? I guess I really thought the movement McCullers gets would put him over as opposed to what can be a rather flat pitch for Folty.

J.J. Cooper: It was a very close call there. Folty has better velo while McCuller has more life, as you said. It's almost flip a coin, as both are 70 pitches or better.

Kevin (Houston): How close was Brady Rodgers to Top 10? Future MLB role?

J.J. Cooper: He didn't make the Top 30. It's a deep system. He's a potential No. 5 starter or long-man, but the long-man role is kind of disappearing from the league.

Gary (New Jersey): Thanks for the insights!! Seems like Houston was very conservative with Correa last year, keeping him at Lo A the entire season. Do you expect him to continue to move one level per year or will they be more aggressive with him going forward??

J.J. Cooper: He was comfortable, productive and that club was a playoff contender so there was no real reason to push him. It's worth remembering that he was one of the youngest players in the league. If he dominates in Lancaster, a midseason promotion to Corpus Christi wouldn't be shocking.

Chris (Long Beach): Given that the majority of the Astros new regime comes from the Cardinals, what can we expect to see in the coming years in terms of management?

J.J. Cooper: What you are seeing now--a team that develops from within. I think one aspect that hasn't been noticed is how Houston, like St. Louis, has shown an ability to develop velocity in its young pitchers. Expect to see something more here at BA about this in the future.

Frank (Chicago, IL): Should we keep an eye on new acquisition Kyle Smith? Is he ready for Corpus Christi?

J.J. Cooper: With the logjam of pitching heading to Lancaster, yes, I'd expect to see him in Double-A. He's a fearless starter with solid but unspectacular stuff and a very good feel for setting up hitters.

Kelly (Saint Cloud, MN): LHP Luis Cruz - what's the skinny on him? Thanks J.J.!

J.J. Cooper: Cruz benefited as much as anyone from last year's tandem-starter system. He showed excellent feel and a fearlessness that lets him succeed with average stuff. He'll have to prove it every level as he climbs the ladder, but he put himself on the radar last year.

@webberoo11 (Las Vegas): Which players were in contention for the 10th spot or was Wojo the clear cut choice?

J.J. Cooper: I'll wrap up by pointing this out again, the gap from No. 10 to No. 13 on this list was miniscule. I know people can get hung up on who is on and who is out, but that's why we rank 30 guys in the Prospect Handbook. There are more than 10 guys in the Astros system worth reading up on, as there are a number of guys on the 11-30 part of this list who will end up being solid big league contributors.

 

Good read, thanks.

Reymin Guduan sounds like one to watch.

 

Very interesting what they had to say about Gonzalo Sanudo. They seem to have a penchant for getting control guys and tweaking their deliveries to get a couple more mph: Aaron West, Nick Tropeano, Sanudo, etc...

 

Seems like Kvasnicka wasnt a complete waste of a pick. We did pass on guys like Sanchez, Syndegaard, Walker, Castellanos, but at least we got an interesting guy in the end.

 

I walked away most impressed with Gonzalo Sanudo. He has officially been added to my minor league watch list.

 

He'll have to be filed in my to watch list, like Feliz was coming into last season. Feliz is a little different in that he was highly regarded when signed, but seeing a positive report on his stuff improving to go with the stats, suggest there is fire to the stat smoke on Sanudo.

I would consider it somewhat justice for Johan Santana (though Kvasnicka actually was very productive last year).