Maybe he's one of those guys that was always dominant on his natural ability, which he could get away with in HS and college. Now he just needs some good coaching to teach the finer points of pitching to take him to the next level. I hope he's getting that in Lancaster.
I would for sure. Give me 2 potential stars for 1. His problems may be correctable, but that doesn't mean he will ever fully correct them. And if he's shell shocked now, I have to question his mental makeup in order to succeed.
Getting back 2 good prospects is not the equivalent of giving up on him. Giving up would be trading him for players with low potential or releasing him.
Let's say Appel was drafted in the 10th round instead of #1 overall and had the same stats. Would we even be talking about him making it to the big leagues? It feels like the only reason people still put him on their top prospect list is because where he was drafted. He has done nothing to deserve his status on those lists in his professional career.
You should have serious doubts, he is in a low level for his experience and has not pitched well. Still, he hasn't had a terrible injury to his arm and is the same physically that he was a year ago. He may very well flameout, but to me I think he has a better shot of being a key piece for the Astros than 2 top 100 prospects. I am starting to agree with NICK, just send him to AA so he is in a new environment. He clearly has some of it getting between his ears. This is the second time I have had someone tell me that he has shown ZERO emotion after getting crushed. I just think he is in shock and not used to dealing with adversity. He has always had success and was very polished and confident in college. He SHOULD get that back and I expect improvement to his delivery. His lack of deception is the most worrying issue for me. You can throw 97 MPH with 3 pitches, but if you are an easy read, you will turn into Scott Linbrink.
Look what happened to Lidge when he was tipping pitches. To me, I see it as a good thing. If guys are sitting dead red, that's why he's getting lit up. If there wasn't a reason I'd be more concerned.
Well, yeah. He was drafted high due to his productivity and his potential based on that productivity. He was ranked high right away because of his potential that was based on his productivity which is why he was drafted high. So now he should have zero expectations simply because the draft can be a potential crap shoot? Or because he hasn't been a professional very long? He wasn't drafted in the 10th... He was a 1-1 that got paid millions. Expectations are warranted, and not living up to them will yield justified dissapointment. Nobody should be writing him off for good... But it's reasonable to be dissapointed/frustrated to this point.
But Lidge was a dominant major league (and minor league) pitcher prior to that incident happening. I'm all for correctable aspects... But if Appel is this much of a project, and needs that much correcting, that's a pretty big scouting fail (and it happens every year to a lot of teams... You just hope it doesn't happen to your team and doesn't happen to a 1-1).
Also should there be a separate mark Appel thread to discuss this? Don't want to get perma-banned and lead to another locked thread!
And Appel was a dominant college pitcher that's now going through woes. And as Lunhow pointed out, somewhat sheepishly, he's still getting strikeouts. I'm not making excuses. He's started off very poorly and it's cast a lot of doubt. As an Astros fan, I'm absolutely looking for silver linings. If he had a deceptive release but no movement on the ball and guys were teeing him up, I'd be furious. I happen to see the tipped pitches as something correctable and will be interested to see how he handles it. Funny, I've been working with my 14 year old on this. Both recognizing it as a hitter, and making sure to avoid it as a pitcher.
Agreed, and I'm right there with you... I just don't know how somebody can go from being a potential #1 pick two years in a row to being somebody who needs a lot of factors corrected... from his mechanics, to his release, to his ability to recognize that he's tipping pitches, to his ability to "show emotion." I frankly think he's not there mentally (he did have a ton of pressure on him last year after not signing the first round contract with the Pirates, and could have had a little burn-out), and I don't think he's confident that he can pitch well at Lancaster. If its all mental, and can be corrected, great... but like juicy said earlier, that would raise additional concerns if he was this "mentally weak".
Nobody is doing that (at least nobody is seriously doing that)... but they're also not ignoring the innings pitched last year, as well as just plain scouting reports both now (and before the draft) that raised concerns.
While everybody has been complaining about Appel, we have other pitchers that have been doing well, like the guys at CC. None of them are viewed as big prospects, some aren't viewed as prospects at all, but they have had some sneaky great results. Thomas Shirley 1.90 ERA 8.2 K/9 1.8 BB/9 .194 BA Luis Cruz 3.18 ERA 8.2 K/9 2.7 BB/9 .229 BA Kyle Smith 3.35 ERA 9.9 K/9 2.6 BB/9 .222 BA David Rollins 2.57 ERA 9.0 K/9 2.1 BB/9 .215 BA Jordan Jankowski 3.46 ERA 9.2 K/9 2.4 BB/9 .228 BA Mike Hauschild 3.78 ERA 7.6 K/9 1.7 BB/9 .266 BA The pitching depth really is insane, some time soon I expect the Astros to start making move to alleviate this roadblack at AA/AAA.
Shirley/Cruz/Smith/Rollins are all guys I expect to see the majors, though I only see Smith as a starter in the bigs.
I wouldn't throw the mentally weak label on someone for going through issues through a transition period. While they never happened to me, I watched my son go through a pretty bad case of the yips at the beginning of this season that was all mental. He'd just come off a great year and outstanding allstar performance. He was putting a ton of pressure on himself to perform at the same level or above and next thing you know, every ball he throws is in the dirt. We backed off, spring break helped, and by the end of the year he was right as rain and now he's gearing up for another allstar run. Yes, I know that's an apples to oranges comparison, but it could be that Appel is going through a bit of mental yips and as soon as he tastes some success he'll be back to right as rain.
Could be... its a big reason why I'm advocating for a change of scene (i.e. - promotion to AA). However, I'm sure the front office has a far better analytical/statistical/techinical approach that shows that Appel just needs to gain more arm strength in each of his starts, work on some mechanical things, and eventually if he can work out his yips at Lancaster, he'll be just fine on subsequent promotions.
