I would love to go pitcher-heavy in the first few rounds, so hopefully some nice pitching prospects emerge before the draft. This Manaea kid sounds intriguing. As of now he seems like higher risk than Appel, but possibly higher reward as well. And perhaps Luhnow and company can use the higher risk as leverage, and get Manaea to sign for a discount, so we can re-allocate the savings in future picks again. That is a distinct advantage, and hopefully we can use it masterfully again in next year's draft. I know you go best player available, I am just hoping that the best player happens to be a pitcher. I don't see as much depth in our pitching as I do in our position players in the system, so hopefully we can rectify any discrepancy with another great draft.
While I'd love to see the Astros draft/acquire some blue chip prospects, I'd still go Best Player Available in the first couple of rounds (if they happen to be pitchers, all the better).
Thinking it will be Appel unless someone jumps out at this season. He's a senior so there is a good chance that the Astros can get him to sign between 1st pick and 2nd pick slot. Not a huge savings, but it could help out some.
I doubt that at least not as a top ~ 3 pick. At #1 Appel would likely come at a significant discount under slot
If he isn't the clear cut number 1, the Astros can go elsewhere. No one can pay him as much as the Astros even if the Astros underslot him.
He made a mistake last year, and learned the hard way. You can't afford to slip in the draft if you are Appel.
I am not sure Appel and Boras learned anything. I would not be surprised to see Appel getting a deal in 2013 that is less than the Pirates best offer in 2012. Appel got drafted #1.8 since seven teams did not want to mess with Boras. I don't see how that is going to change in 2013. I especially do not want to see the Astros draft him #1.1. The sensible thing for Appel to do would be to take #2 or #3 slot money and get picked #1.1. I just can't see Boras being sensible.
Exactly. As is stands right now (and I am fully aware that a lot can and will change before draft day), I suspect we would be able to sign Manaea under slot easier than it would take to sign Appel under slot. Nothing I read about how Boras and Appel handled the draft last year with the Pirates makes me optimistic that he will be an easy under-slot sign next year. At this point, unless he pitches himself to be the clear-cut #1 talent in next year's draft, I much rather just pass on the guy.
Actually I was going to add more content, but I got sidetracked and just ended the post. I'd like to see a pitcher, but I'm not sure about Stanek (sp?). I was never really impressed with Appel. I wouldn't be mad if they went with Meadows, but it's still a long way for the draft and hopefully someone will stand out or maybe Luhnow can work his magic again with the draft allotment.
[rquoter]Astros begin laying groundwork for 2013 Draft HOUSTON -- The Astros will have the No. 1 pick in the First-Year Player Draft for two years in a row for the first time in club history. And Stanford right-hander Mark Appel is again on their radar. Appel, a Houston native, was among the players considered worthy of the top pick a year ago, but he slipped to eighth, where he was taken by the Pirates. He didn't sign and returned to Stanford, where he will pitch his senior season next spring. Astros scouting director Mike Elias said Appel is among four of five players the team is considering at No. 1, though that list that could change. "I don't have a clear No. 1 in my mind right now and I'd say nobody does," Elias said. "I would say Mark Appel is absolutely back in the mix given what he did last year, the consideration he garnered last year and the serious consideration he had a the top of the Draft. He's back in there, so that strengthens the pool. "The rest of the pool is pretty diverse. You've got other college players and some high school position players. I don't think there's a high school pitcher yet that has made the case to put himself in that group, sort of like Lucas Giolito did last year right off the bat. So that's probably the one piece that's missing. Historically, that's the one position that doesn't get taken 1-1, so that's not surprising." The top pick means extra work for Elias and the scouting staff. The Astros will spend a lot of time and resources making sure they get the No. 1 pick right. The area scouts might see a potential No. 1 pick as many as 10 times, while Elias will try to get four or five looks. "What it means for us we have some big decisions we have a lot of pressure to get it right," he said. "If we look at the history of it, there have been teams that have not seen the benefits of the No. 1 pick you might expect and still have gone on to have successful rebuilds and have come out a successful organization. It's still a major opportunity you're burning if you can't get that pick right."[/rquoter]
It just dawned on me that we are almost surely going to surpass our loss record of last year. I have to say, I really thought last year was going to be bottom. We would have to go 6-2 the rest of the way in order not to surpass last years loss total of 106. Having said that, I thought we would be picking somewhere in the 3-5 range for 2013. Disconcertingly, I am finding myself thinking we wont be the worst team in baseball next year and again will pick in the 3-5 range. Moving to a more difficult league could just cancel any real progress in terms of late season call-ups or better play so are we looking at possibly 3 #1's in a row? OUCH!
I think it's a real possibility that we're the worst team in baseball again. We're not going to make any big free agent moves, and we'll play the season with much less talent than we had from April-July of this year -- remember we had Wandy, Lee, Chris Johnson, and Happ for a good chunk of the year. Their replacements have been worse, for the most part...
They really haven't been worse. More painful was some guys cooled off after good starts to the season, and the bullpen imploded. Everything started going downhill before we even traded those guys. It all started the day they agreed with the deal to send Lee to the Dodgers.
A few more thoughts..... The worst team in the AL this year is on a pace to win 67 games. So its extremely likely we will be the worst team in the AL. But consider the NL. Several teams wont have the luxury of beating up on the Astros next year and thus its likely some bottom feeders will have an even worse year in 2013, especially NL Central clubs who had played a disproportionately greater amount of games against us. If we are to avoid dead last next year, its almost certainly going to be an NL club that takes that title from us. And given the Cubs are the 2nd worst club this year and are a NL Central club, they are the most likely candidate.
1) Some guys cooled off Some years, guys never get hot to begin with and so stay relatively frozen all year. I doubt very much we start 22-23 next year. 2) Bullpen imploded I think thats just as likely next year as this year 3) Lee to Dodgers Well, its true that we wont have any long term players being traded to disrupt any fragile chemistry given we dont have any long term players left.
Clint Frazier is an intriguing name to keep eye on. He's a HS OF who exploded on the scene during the HS summer circuit. Here's Steve Carter from project prospect on Frazier: http://projectprospect.com/article/2012/09/21/our-declaration-on-clint-frazier Our Declaration on Clint Frazier by Steve Carter September 21, 2012 Sometimes, you see a player who makes you stop what you're doing, drop your drink, and start making grunt noises that make Tim Allen proud while any woman within ear shot begins to wonder if you're a constipated neanderthal. The kind of guy this bet on nfl football offseason makes you crave. This past summer, I found such a player in Loganville, GA outfielder Clint Frazier. While not extremely imposing at a *listed* 6'0'', 190 pounds, Frazier starts to become imposing when you glance at his calf-sized forearms and flowing red locks that should make Bobby Kielty proud. Even though the 2013 Draft is months away and who knows what will happen between now and then -- come at me Mayans -- I have no qualms with posting Frazier number one on my draft board and soft-shoeing out of the room without a second glance. What specifically about Frazier stands out? Well beside the aforementioned red lettuce of a haircut (cabbage?), Frazier jumps out by having some outrageous tools and a skill-set and game approach that make him a potential superstar. We're talking a possible 70 arm as well as run tools, plus bat and hand speed, and emerging power that figures to ramp heavily once he learns to fully utilize his lower half. My favorite part of Frazier's game, beside playing like his hair is aflame (pun slightly intended), is his hand actions at the plate. Frazier has an aggressive trigger, and loads his hands in a manner that only hitters with a ferocious intent to cause harm to baseballs would develop. Frazier's trigger allows a quick ascent into the hitting zone, and his impressive hand strength allow a tremendous release of the bat head into the ball. Often in game action, Frazier will barely utilize his lower half, instead letting his quick hands work. If you saw the Under Armour All-American Game this summer at Wrigley Field, you may have noticed Frazier bang one off the ivy in right-center. You might have also notice he basically did it with just a snap of his wrists. And it should be noted that I don't feel that Frazier doesn't know how to use his lower half, as he shows good actions downstairs during batting practice. However, I do feel that his hands are just so good, so strong, and so dominant in his swing that he can get away with it and his body happily obliges. This also bodes well for his power projection, as it's already quite good and is basically wrist powered. Get that boy some leverage? Oh my. A lot can happen between now and the draft. There will be plenty of changes atop many draft boards, and many pop-up guys causing late shifts and plenty of headaches. In the interim, I'm having a hard time seeing anyone bump Frazier from the top of my rankings. That is, unless some hybrid Mike Trout/Ron Howard freak comes out of nowhere and puts on crazy shows at showcases across the nation. I'm sorry, I believe I just described Frazier all over again. Stay tuned to Project Prospect in the coming months for plenty of 2013 Draft coverage. * Follow Steve Carter on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SteveCarterPP.
Simply put, our demise had little to do with trading away "talent." Our big losses were Wandy, who was struggling lately, Myers, & Lyon. We will be better if we can simply stay healthy. We'll still suck, but 60 wins could happen.
