I don't think MLB by the end of 2013 is out of the question (September callup). Hopefully he performs well in CC. Next year will be very interesting. Our starters that will be looking at going into next year: Bud Norris Lucas Harrell Dallas Keuchel Brett Oberholtzer Jordan Lyles Kyle Weiland Rudy Owens Jose Cisnero Jared Cosart Wes Musick Ross Seaton Only Musick can be left off the 40-man roster and not be subject to the Rule V draft (or placed on waivers/non-tendered), so they will all likely be competing for a spot in ST (with Musick being a long shot). I would consider Harrell the only lock for the rotation, with Norris a lock to make it or be moved to the closer role.
I think that's an aggressive promotion schedule. While he's handled everything thrown at him, I think catching his breath would be a good idea. You're basically suggesting he'd go through all four full season affiliates inside of two full seasons; there's no need for that. He's only 21 (he'll turn 22 in two weeks); no need to rush him. There's tons of pitching prospects ahead of him (Cosart, Cisnero, Owens, Wojo, Rasmussen, etc). Jordan Lyles isn't the poster boy for aggressive promotion, but he did 4 levels in 2 years and hasn't been able to put it together at the ML level. He only got about 90 innings (across two seasons) in AAA before going to the show. His peripherals just worse at every level. I say go conservative and give him 120-140 ip per level from here on out. That'll give the league time to get a second look at him, have him make adjustments, and build up stamina to go 6+ innings per start. Right now he's at 5.2 innings per start in HiA. That'd be about another 2 months in HiA, 4-6 months in AA, and 4-6mo in AAA before a ML debut late 2014/early 2015.
His timetable depends on how he performs. Start him out next year at AA. 2 full seasons in the minors will be enough. I figure he probably posts more innings in AA than he does at any other level.
I agree, AA should be the longest stop. I think he can handle AA now; but he's not outright dominating A+ so I wouldn't be opposed to more seasoning there either. My beef with rapid promotion is that you don't get the growing pains that can be critical to a player's development. First time through the league, the pitcher has the advantage. Second and third time through the league adjusts and the pitcher have to make adjustments back. (the counterpoint to my argument is that because the Texas League only has 8 teams, he'll see everyone 2-3 times in half a season). The more he gets used to making adjustments in minors, the better off he'll be when he gets to the show. Lyles is basically the exact same pitcher he was when he got called up the first time. Look at the yearly stats; they're shockingly and eerily similar.
I don't think its too aggressive for a player with college experience to finish at AAA when he turns 23. Making the Majors 23-24yrs old isn't really that far fetched. You look at the player and if he's continuing to develop while excelling at each stop. Jordan Lyles is finally starting to pitch well now but you really can't use him as a similar comparison to Trop. They're 2 different pitchers with different repertoire. Plus, Trop has college experience while Lyles does not. You've got to challenge players and as long as he doesn't show signs of heavy arm fatigue or other injuries then keep on keepin on.
Given the California league's absurdity, I don't trust it. If he gets through July next year in CC with numbers similar to his Lexington numbers, I send him to AAA. I would expect him to open 2014 in AAA, and if he dominates early getting the call up at the 1st opening, and if not giving him the whole season there. Lyles was rushed, no question. I think he should have stayed in AAA this season, while he tried to fix what was wrong. You'll notice I didn't include him as a lock next year, because I'm not convinced you don't send him down there to continue to work on things. He was 19 and in the big leagues, and the team has been up and down with him ever since, when a guy that young needs time to work it out. He throws strikes, but you can't survive giving up more than 10 hits per 9 innings in this league. It means you aren't fooling enough people. I hope whoever the new pitching coach is (I'm pretty sure the coaching staff is going the way of the scouting department), that he can help Lyles.
Sorry if this belongs elsewhere, but couldnt find a better thread to put my question in. I was curious to where our farm is as a whole. That is, how is it ranked compared to other clubs given our flurry of incomers. Is there some place (someone) who does rankings (farm / minor league) and updates them periodically? Most of what I found googling were pre season rankings and farm news exclusive for a specific club. Ideally, Id like to see where we ranked say, 2 years ago, then 1 year ago, and then now, and look at the trend(s).
Most of the major baseball publications do a yearly ranking of minor league systems. The biggest baseball outlet is Baseball America but others like Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, John Sickel's MinorLeagueBaseball blog put out lists. I don't believe any of them do an in-season revision, so that's anyone's best guess. Guys at the local Astros fanblog (Crawfishboxes) believe they're somewhere between 10-15 now. Definitely upper half, possibly the upper third. I believe one of them asked Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus that on twitter and he said about that range too. The consensus is we've become a very deep system with lots of mid-level prospects. We didn't acquire any immediate impact prospects and we don't have any ready right now. We've got 5-7 potential impact players, but they're at minimum about a year away. Flip side is that since we aren't graduating any prospects, we can only go up the rankings. The beginning of this season the Baseball outlets had us anywhere from low to high 20's. Two offseasons ago we were dead last or next to last.
Well, at least I know to stop looking. I guess spring training time 2013 everyone will be putting out their annual report. High 20's is pretty close to next to last, so apparently at the beginning of this year, some folks were not too impressed with our haul from 2011. Despite the Bourn and Pence trades in 2011 (the prospects from them), I think 2012 has surpassed our asset gathering of 2011. It will interesting what notice of that is translated into a higher ranking. But I guess I will have about 6 month wait on this
Dan Minor threw 6 shutout frames for Greeneville in their series opener against Bubba Starling and Burlington. He allowed 4 hits and fanned 6. Appy Astros up 3-0 at stretch time.
Minor league systems are notoriously difficult to change in the short term. They're built on 4-6 seasons of drafts, international free agent signings, and trade acquisitions. We got most of our premium talent (Singleton, Cosart, Santana, Springer) in 2011 but even that infusion took the system from a hard 'F' to a C-. Too many years of poor drafting and international scouting. Flip side, this year's trades and draft will probably account for half of our top 40 prospects and greatly added to our depth. Brings us up to roughly a B/B+ system. Still aren't enough ready contributors. That grade has huge room to grow, as we have a lot of promising raw players at the rookie levels. One thing I heard over and over about the minor league rebuild is that the Astros FO compressed 6 years of drafting/scouting in to two by blowing up the big league club. Something that's important to note in minor league system building is that it's not done in a vacuum. Every team is out there scouting and drafting. Averages drafts don't help you move up the rankings. You really gotta do something special like Houston did this year or Toronto did the past few seasons to build a 'strong' minor league system.
the Astros definitely have a top 10 overall system and are probably are close to being a top 5 system. Think of it this way, going into the season the Astros had the #17 overall system according to baseball america. They have graduated or lost zero of their top 15 prospects and only 4 of their top 30 (#19-21:abrue, marwin Gonzalez, and kechuel; #27 rhiner cruz). For comparison the #1 system, the rangers, will have graduated/lost 6 of their top 15 prospects; the #15 system, the braves, will graduate/lose 5 of their top 15. Just by other clubs' attrition the Astros system would have moved up. But, on top of returning all of their top prospects, they've added arguably the best draft class including the #1pick (likely top 25 overall prospect). They've also added upwards of 20 prospects through trades with, at least, 5 who came from other orgs top ten list. I think only the blue jays and rangers can match the depth of the Houston system right now. The Astros might not have a stud top ten overall can't-miss prospect, but they have a number of guys who will be in consideration for overall MLB top 50 and top 100 lists.
Back of the top 10 might be accurate. Here's a good comparison to the current Astros' system. The Red Sox were ranked 9th in the pre-season BA rankings. That distribution of grades is roughly what the Astros's is. 0 A/A- prospects 2-3 B+ prospects (Correa, Singleton, Springer) ~14 B- or better prospects remainder of top 20-22 are C+ prospects Keep in mind that while other teams graduated several top prospects this year, they also had unheralded prospects establish themselves. A team like Pittsburgh had previously unknown LoA prospects Alan Hansen and Gregory Polanco jump into top 100 discussion. Also, prospects don't get taken off the prospect lists (i.e. lose their prospect status) until they lose their rookie eligibility. That's 130 major league plate appearances or 50 ip for pitchers. So top prospects like Mike Olt and Anthony Gose will likely be on next year's lists too. Systems I think are still better: Texas, Toronto Kansas City San Diego Pittsburgh Seattle St. Louis Baltimore Systems I think the Astros surpassed Tampa Atlanta Oakland There are a few systems that are roughly equivalent and tie probably goes to them because they have A/A- prospects. Who knows though, it'll be interesting to see what the professionals say.
Adrian Houser threw 5 shutout innings, allowed 5 hits, and struck out 3 for Greeneville tonight. Appy Astros lead Burlington 1-0 in the 6th
Another pleasant surprise: Matt Dominguez, acquired in the Carlos Lee deal, is hitting .283/.346/.375 in 133 plate appearances in AAA. Solid advanced stats: BB% 8.3% K% 12.8% K:BB 1.54 Iso. 0.92 (slightly below average) I know they're a little inflated due to the PCL, but I like it.
