2012-2013 Astros Offseason: Trade & FA Speculation

sure hope the A's and Angels are appreciative!

you went from saying he'd be a great fit for us to saying he'd be signed strictly as a trade chip. if that's the case, you can attach our name to dozens of the players on that list of 50. fitting our needs is immaterial.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said he will reach out to Lance Berkman to gauge his interest in returning to the Astros.</p>&mdash; Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/264529065040543745" data-datetime="2012-11-03T00:46:58+00:00">November 3, 2012</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Luhnow said Astros will likely sit back and watch free agent market unfold.</p>&mdash; Brian T. Smith (@ChronAstros) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChronAstros/status/264529375033184257" data-datetime="2012-11-03T00:48:12+00:00">November 3, 2012</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Luhnow says Berkman has great history in Houston and if it's a fit won't be hesitant to pursue it. Views him as offensive weapon.</p>&mdash; Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/264530362871459840" data-datetime="2012-11-03T00:52:07+00:00">November 3, 2012</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Luhnow made it clear Lance Berkman talks will just be exploratory. However, Houston will definitely attempt to gauge his interest.</p>&mdash; Brian T. Smith (@ChronAstros) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChronAstros/status/264532658011394050" data-datetime="2012-11-03T01:01:15+00:00">November 3, 2012</a></blockquote>
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Astros going after Hamilton?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121103&content_id=40160548&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

No thank you...only reason I'd get him is if it's on a one year deal and we just trade him for prospects later on

 

Whoever signs Hamilton will in the end regret the length of the contract, no doubt.

I would much prefer signing Berkman, for two years for his "farewell tour".

 

All Transactions as of 11/6 (WTHB)

 

Ken Rosenthal: Astros are lowly; payroll even lower

 

Another good resource from Farmstros:

Turning 50 into 40

 

Justin Upton and the Stros a fit?

http://climbingtalshill.com/2012/11/09/justin-upton-and-the-stros-a-fit/

 

That'd be a steep package. You're looking at 2-3 of the top 10 prospects and possibly one of the young big leaguers. Correa and singleton are untouchable but a package might start with Springer and McCullers.

 

As the article points out, if say Bud Norris, Jed Lowrie and maybe Jimmy Paredes would get things close, it might be a good deal. I wouldn't mind giving up pieces that are not part of our end game. But I wouldn't want us sacrificing the likes of Springer or McCullers who definitely may figure into things.

 

If AZ were willing to take that (relative) pile of crap for Upton, I'm all for it. But it's highly unlikely 3 guys who may not ever make an all-star team will be enough return for a cheap, young, MVP-caliber player.

Who knows why AZ doesn't want to keep him but Upton will demand a nice ransom in return. Springer seems like a reasonable starting point. Springer plus a top 20 prospect plus one of Norris, Lowrie or Paredes approaches a semi-reasonable deal.

 

For me, its a timing thing. You take last years team, subtract Lowrie, Bud and Paredes, insert Upton. How many more games do we win? 3 or 4?

Now, fast forward to 3-4 years from now. If we do the Upton trade and it requires the likes of Springer, and other players who by now are possibly good players who contribute regularly on other teams, not only are those players not contributing for us, but Upton is either no longer with us or demanding much more money to keep him. I say we are not better in 3-4 years AND are paying more for it at the same time if Upton is still around, and worse yet if now he gone AND we no longer have Springer and co.

Now, in 3-4 years, would we be missing Paredes, Bud, or Lowrie? Probably not. Are we benefiting from Spring and co.? Yes. And add to it we may still have Upton to add to those assets. A win? I think so.

So at the end of the day, if we have to give up pieces that are likely to contribute in the 3-4 year window, its not worth giving them up for a mere 3-4 game advantage (or whatever that advantage may be) in the now where we will basically still be terrible.

 

I don't disagree with most of your points. You telling me Paredes/Bud/Lowrie is a forgettable group of players is exactly the point I was making. However, there's nothing to indicate AZ would take that package ever. We're not getting Justin Upton for that.

The timing issue is a moot for me depending on the package. Could Springer produce in 3-4 years? Sure. His ceiling is a 5-tool gold glove center fielder. You also gotta keep in mind his floor is Justin Maxwell. Right now I wouldn't say he's closer to all-star CF than his floor of J. Max.

I'd trade the possibility of Springer becoming a stud for the known quantity in Upton; especially because Upton is young and has relatively cheap years left. That's the type of big boy decision that has franchise repercussions. It's much easier to say "hey we'll trade you our crap for your all-star" than it is to say "we'll trade you a potential all-star and young talent for your former all-star".

 

I agree. AZ probably wouldnt do this. I didnt mean to imply I thought this was a great deal for them. Basically just taking the scenario in the article and running with it.

In a nutshell, id rather have Springer in 4 years than Upton now. Mostly because we just cannot be good right now, even with him.

I could go the other way if I was sure somehow that Upton would still be here when we needed him 3-6 years from now.

 

It sounds like Lowrie would be about the only player we have that they might be interested in trading for. I doubt Bud Norris would interest them, not for Bauer anyway.

 

Several teams interested in Jed Lowrie

http://climbingtalshill.com/2012/11/13/several-teams-interested-in-jed-lowrie/

I think a B level pitching prospect would get the conversation started, what about the rest of you?