2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Obama (D-IL) vs. McCain (R-AZ)

All good points, and I certainly think a significant Obama bounce is coming - in fact, in my original post I considered adding something about how I think his popular vote margin will be wider than the electoral vote margin makes it appear, but I couldn't think of a great way to phrase it so I left that out.

I guess I'm probably just skeptical, after the last two elections, of states like Ohio and Missouri and Florida swinging en masse to the Democrats to create a 300-EV landslide. Enough to get to 270? Absolutely.

I may have to sit down and do some thinking about why I more easily accept, at a gut level, that Colorado and Virginia could go blue than Ohio and Florida. Sounds like flawed thinking. At any rate, I'm looking forward to some good, post-Clinton-concession polling.

 

Clearly there is a bounce from today. But this bounce won't mean anything in 5 months. Think about it: It's only June 3rd. If Obama bumps ahead by 8-10 points in the next 2 weeks, that gives him plenty of time for gaffes and for the GOP plenty of time to chop him down to size by November.

Your last comment gives me pause and it might present a problem for McCain if Obama stays hungry and humble the rest of the way and doesn't get too full of himself.

 

McCain himself has told his fundraisers and others that he thinks he'll be behind by 10-15 once the Dem nomination is settled and Obama gets the bump from clinching. He may be playing expectations with that number, but he certainly expects some kind of bump.

 

Saw these on kos today. They look interesting... two swing states and at least one state where McCain wants to be competitive (OR).

Be interesting to watch how those numbers change after tonight.

 

I sincerely hope that Obama underestimates McCain as badly as you have. It is this type of "it's in the bag" arrogance that could lead to Obama's defeat.

 

To the best of my knowledge (and I've followed him pretty closely), Obama's never underestimated anyone nor been guilty of any apparent arrogance. In fact, his coolness to the phenomenon that's grown up around him is one of his greatest and most reliable assets.

The prediction of a blowout is only mine. But the thing is, I saw their speeches tonight and the contrast was beyond striking. And we all know he's getting a bounce. So what happens to correct it? Either McCain beats Obama or Obama beats himself. Or it's a landslide. Considering McCain is with Bush on every major issue and America's against him on every major issue, it's hard to see McCain beating him. Having watched Obama beat a far more talented politician with a far broader base of support than McCain (in Clinton), it's hard to see him beating himself too. So my prediction is a blowout. But it would be silly to ascribe that opinion to Obama himself; he's never said anything remotely like that.

I take it from this post that you support McCain? That surprises me as you seem to have been disappointed by Bush. I'd be interested to know more about your position.

 

I hope so. Obama comes across as being above the minor things, but as Hillary has shown again and again, sometimes it's the minor things that defines candidacies.

He needs to hire Dream as a consultant on being unbeedable.

 

I am disappointed by Bush. I believe that John McCain is a very different person from Bush. I believe that McCain has been running to the right in order to avoid the far right from running their own candidate. If that were to happen, he'd be screwed. Once that issue has been put to rest, I expect John McCain to return more toward the center. I believe that is who he really is.

In regards to Iraq, I think that McCain wants a reasoned troop withdrawal so as to not bring unnecessary instability to the region. After that, he will probably want peacekeepers there for quite a while. This is no different than what we have in Korea, and for some inexplicable reason, Germany.

I think that, to some extent, Obama is full of crap. His ads in Texas stated that his health care plan would save the average American family $2,500 a year in health care costs. This is assuming that the average American family spends that much in health care, which I do not know to be true. Further, it completely ignores what that plan would cost the average American family in additional taxes to fund it. The math simply does not work. If he is less than honest about that, I shudder to think what else he is being misleading about. If he is not being misleading about it, then he simply does not understand that calculus (which I refuse to believe because Obama is a very bright guy). Either way...BIG yellow lights going off in my head.

 

I agree on the health care thing. But I fail to see how this is unique. McCain talks about fiscal responsibility while proposing another $2 trillion in tax cuts and a vague "cut in wasteful spending". How does the math work there? No economist thinks tax cuts pay for themselves at these rates. So how do you get fiscal responsibility while cutting taxes and not having any specific plan to cut spending?

 

Dude, that is so wrong but so damn funny I burst out laughing like a mental patient in my office. Thanks.

 

Refman


Refman, $2500/yr is only $200 per month. This alone is a lot less than what many people pay for health insurance, never mind co-pays, medicines, deductibles. I don't expect you to change your opinon on Obama, but your facts are so wildly off on this one, that you might want to reconsider if that is really a reason you think Obama is not telling the truth on many issues.

Have you ever purchased health insurance for a family? Many families I know pay as much as $700 to $800 per month just for insurance.

 

I used to believe that about him. As a Dem, I was seriously considering voting for him in 2000 had be beaten Bush in the primaries. Now, I'm not sure anyone knows who he truly is and where he stands. He leans the way the winds are blowing on any given day. That, to me, is bad news.

 

I don't understand people who say they have a hard time believing what Obama says, etc. etc.... yet when confronted with what McCain says, they say, "oh well.. that's not what he REALLY thinks.. I'm sure he'll say something different later".

 

I think a lot of people believe that Obama will also say something different should he take office. It is what that something will be that scares them.

 

Not out of my clients. Most of my clients have very modest health care budgets. It may be $2500 per year for insurance for them, but those are also pre-tax dollars. Of course, I am not seeing the very wealthy, etc.

 

Where do you live Ref? I work in the insurance industry and I can promise you that the average rate for a single person, let alone a family, is more than $2500 a year.

Of course, most employers subsidize most if not all of the employee cost.

 

well, i do hate counting chickens before...
but damn, if it's not a blowout then this country is dumber than a stump.

 

Face facts, libs. Obama is simply not qualified to be President. He's not. The only reason he is even in the race is because 1) He's not Hillary and 2) He's not a Republican. He has no qualifications. No experience. Horrible instincts. He has ties to very racist individuals and very destructive individuals.

Contrast that to McCain who has served our nation with honor for his entire adult life. A true American Hero.

 

Trader...

A few things I'd like to know about you:

1. Have you ever served your country either in the military of civil service?
2. Have you traveled outside the U.S., if so where, for what reason, and for how long?

Just curious, feel free to disregard this post if you're not comfortable answering.

Thanks,

cmiller

 

nice "facts"