It's less than a month away. June 5th and 6th. Everyone knows of last year's mishandling of the draft where we didn't sign our first 2 picks. Both of them are getting steady playing time and Derek Dietrich could be freshman of the year. Anyways, we have quite a few picks this year. 10th overall, then a supplemental 1st rounder, and also a 3rd round supplemental pick. Our farm system is THE weakest system in baseball, and we just traded away most of our top prospects in the last 2 years. Hirsh, Patton, Albers, and Gutierrez are all gone. Nieve and Paulino are also coming off injuries. So our pitching is pretty thin. Our offense is also really thin, and honestly I'm not even sure if any of our current minor league hitters could make it to the majors and actually make an impact. So who could we be looking at this draft? With our current situation, we are in win-now mode. I think we should look less at projection and more at who can make the quickest impact at any position. I think we may lean more towards taking a pitcher though since pitching is at such a premium and our rotation is in a mess. Also because we have Lee and Berkman and Pence for awhile. However, we do need a long term solution at 3B, SS, and 2B. Pitchers who could be there at 10: LHP Christian Friedrich- Eastern Kentucky A big lefty sort of in the mold of Brian Bogusevic. Fastball is 88-94 and a lights out curveball. Command is average at best and he's faced a low level of competition. Doesn't throw his changeup much either. RHP Shooter Hunt- Tulane Power pitcher with a power pitcher's build at 6'3 205lbs. 90-95mph fastball with a plus curveball. Changeup is a distant 3rd pitch. Struggles with command and walks too many hitters, but he has the stuff to succeed. RHP Tanner Scheppers- Fresno St. Raw projectable type with a 92-95mph fastball and an electric slider. Has a tall frame with long arms and could add muscle, making his stuff all that more projectable. Could hit 100mph in the future. Relatively inexperienced at pitching and walks too many. Inconsistent and needs some work, but the raw ability is there. RHP Tim Mellville- Highschool Probably the most polished highschool pitcher this year. Fastball is 92-94mph and he has a swing and miss curveball. Throws an average changeup. Astros and highschool pitchers generally don't go together though because of the bonus demands. Hitters we could look at: SS Gordon Beckham- Georgia Having a huge year. His frame doesn't project much power, but he's got a quick bat. Average defensively. May move to 2B, but that's fine since we need a 2nd baseman. Could be an Ian Kinsler or Jeff Kent type player as an offensive 2nd baseman who is just average defensively. 1B Yonder Alonso- Miami A polished hitter with projectable power. Kind of a less powerful Lance Berkman. Good approach at the plate and draws walks. More of a 25 home run , 40 double type than just a pure masher though. Should move quickly in the minors. I know we don't need a 1B, but Alonso will probably be the safest/best hitter available. C/SS Buster Posey- Florida St. He could actually go #1 overall, but that would be a huge reach. He's very athletic and draws comparisons to Craig Biggio. Could be a solid catcher or a solid shortstop who hits 15+ homeruns. I think for now, the hitters would probably be the safest bet. All of the pitchers who would be available have big questions, whether it's level of play, experience, or command. I think if Gordon Beckham is there, he's our guy. If not, then either Friedrich or Shooter. I think there is better value in taking a college pitcher later, like in the supplemental or 2nd round. Tyson Ross is a guy who has just as big of upside as the others, but needs some refinement. Jacob Thompson from Virginia could shoot through the minors, but profiles as a #3 or #4 pitcher. He's having a down year so hopefully we can get him later. If we can get either in the 1S or 2nd, I'd be very happy.
If there is one thing Ed Wade excels at, it's the draft, particularly the first 3 rounds. Even his critics admit that the man knows what he's doing when he's scouting high-end amateur talent. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, Pat Burrel, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels and Michael Bourn are all picks by Ed Wade in the first five rounds.
Considering how long it takes for most drafted players to reach the majors and further make an impact, the MLB draft should always just be BPA. In 3-5 years, our situation could be markedly different so drafting a pitcher who will have a short term in the minors (e.g. drafting a power college closer) would just be shortsighted. Even Big Puma is 32; drafting his replacement wouldn't be a terrible idea. EDIT* After rereading your list, the one type of player I'd tend to skip drafting with a high first rounder would be some like Scheppers. His description reminds me too much of Colt Griffin, the Texas HS'er who threw 100mph but was extremely raw. He ended up going a pick before ours (#9 to KC) and we ended up drafting Chris Burke. I was devastated at the time but Burke did wayyyy more for us than Griffin did for KC. Chris Burke, game 4, thank you sir.
Recently teams have been moving guys aggressively through the system. Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Luke Hochevar, Andrew Miller, Brandon Morrow, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, Jacoby Ellsbury...all of those guys were taken in either 2005 or 2006, so with these top guys, 2 years seems like the going rate at which guys make it to the majors. So hopefully our 1st rounder can make it by 2010.
Also, the guys I listed are pretty much the best available too. It's somewhat of a weak draft at the top. Hopefully Gordon Beckham is there. He can take over for either Tejada or Matsui.
It's true, teams are starting to rush some can't miss prospects through the minors, but there are some caveats. 1) Most of the players you listed were can't miss (i.e. top 5) players. I don't think any of the guys that'll last til 10 are those types of can't miss prospects. Jacoby went 23rd but is pretty much a fluke. 2) the Astros definitely don't have a history of rushing players through the minors. I don't know Ed Wade's history of pushing players through the minors but I can't remember any Astros prospect that got pushed through the minors in 2 years or less. Back to Scheppers, based on his description he would take at least 3-4 years in the minors and wouldn't help the club til 2011 or 2012.
I respectfully disagree. This year has a ton of top 1B prospects and I think Yonder Alonso could be that type that gets to the majors within 2 years. He draws a ton of walks, doesnt strike out, hits for a high average, projects to hit with power, and he goes the opposite way with authority. I think both him and Gordon Beckham could move very quickly. It's shame we don't need a 1B. Sure Big Puma is 32, but he's signed til 2011. He'll only be 35 by then, and we will undoubtedly resign him again. One wildcard could be Eric Hosmer, the best highschool hitter this year. He's also a 1B, but he could take 4 years or so to get to the bigs. By then, Carlos Lee will be in the last year of his contract so Hosmer could take over LF and be like Berkman v.2 and play the OF and then move to 1B. He's not a great athlete, but he should be ok with the short LF fence. He can also throw 95+mph. I know that in 3-4 years that our team could be entirely different, but Lee and Berkman are pretty much locked in for some time.
1st rounders who've played in the majors, 10th pick and after 2005 and 2006 2005 Cameron Maybin- 10 Jacoby Ellsbury- 23 Matt Garza- 25 Craig Hansen- 26 Joey Devine- 27 Travis Buck- 1S Clay Buccholz- 1S Jed Lowrie- 1S Garret Olson- 1S 2006 Tim Lincecum- 10 Max Scherzer- 11 Ian Kennedy- 21 Emmanuel Burris- 33 Joba Chamberlain- 41
I'm excited about the draft. It is a real good chance to start restocking the farm system. I've been following the draft, but have no knowledge of it other than second hand stuff from the internet. From what I've gathered it is a relatively deep in the first round, but it lacks a real elite level talent at the top of the draft (like the uptons or prior, etc). I think Posey skyrocketing from basically out of the projected top ten to now being the favorite to go #1 speaks to that. The consensus seems to be that it's a good first round for college hitters (particularly firstbasemen) but somewhat weak on college pitchers and high school players. If Posey(c) goes #1 to the Rays, then the consensus rest of the top 5 fills out as Alvarez(3b), Tim Beckham(ss), Aaron Crow(rhp) and Brian Matusz(lhp) (in no particular order). None of those four will fall to ten (maybe the slightest possibility of Crow, but still extremely unlikely). After that it's really anyone's guess. In addition to the players mentioned by htownbball here are some others mentioned in the 5-15 range. C Kyle Skipworth 1B: Justin Smoak, Eric Hosmer (hs), Brett Wallace The Astros have basically said that they'll look for the best player available but are they going to stay within mlb slotting guidelines? What is the Astros stance with Scott Boras clients? A number of the top potential draft picks are Boras clients. If a Crow or a Hosmer fall to 10, and the Astros have them as the top available player, do the Astros pass on him due to slotting and/or Boras? There will likely be a talented 1st baseman available at ten. For all the talk about bpa would the Astros take an Alonso or a Smoak (if he falls) when they have Berkman? Likewise would the Astros have the balls to take another HS catcher in Kyle Skipworth with a top pick after what happened in 2005 and 2006? Right now i'm hoping that G. Beckham or Smoak falls to ten. Beckham is a better fit for the Astros needs, but lets be realistic, given the state of the system and the age of the mlb team, the Astros need future help everywhere. If in two years Smoak is a top prospect and Berkman is still entrenched, and mashing, at 1st then it's a good problem to have and you can deal with it then. Just get the best player. I'm always skeptical of taking a young pitcher this high because of the injury concerns. Scheppers is particular intriguing, but his current sore shoulder scares me. The Astros need to get some value from this pick, so imo, unless a pitcher is clearly the better talent, go with the position player in the first round.
I wouldn't mind nabbing Robbie Grossman, the CF from Cy-Fair. Speed/power combo and great intensity. Best player in the area is a Junior though -- Matt Purke from Klein. Transferred in from Lufkin a year ago -- lefty with gas and command of multiple pitches. Can't miss prospect.
The Rice Owls put a lickin' on Shooter Hunt tonight. Rice took the game 6-0 at Tulane, which is very difficult to do. Ryan Berry for the Owls, who is only a sophomore, tossed the shutout for Rice. Now that is a guy the Astros should look at....must wait until next year's draft, though
i agree. after beckham, i have smoak being the best player for us just because he's the same type of hitter that berkman is. guy is gonna be hitting 35 homers and play gold glove defense. i doubt he falls out of the top 5, and he probably will go to san francisco because they are in dire need of power. as for the pitchers, matusz and crow fit us, but after that, its wide open. those guys wont fall either. doubtful that we'd go after hosmer if he's around. not only because he's a highschooler, but because boras has been reporting a bonus of $7m+ for him. TB- C Buster Posey Rumor has him as the favorite for #1, even though he isnt the top talent Pitt- 3B Pedro Alvarez Pitt is in dire need of a big bat KC- P Aaron Crow Between Crow and Matusz. Go with the local kid from Mizzou. Took a big bat last year and their pitching on the farm is thin. Balt- P Brian Matusz Need the BPA. Pitching always gets the nod over a hitter, especially when they're 1B. SF- 1B Justin Smoak They need a power bat FLA- C Kyle Skipworth Somewhat of a reach, but they don't have a top catcher in the system. Should come cheaper as well Cin- SS Tim Beckham They're in somewhat of a rebuilding mode so they can afford to wait on Beckham. CWS- 1B Yonder Alonso They need a power bat to take over for Konerko/Thome. Take Alonso due to his polish and because Hosmer is asking for too much Wash- SS Gordon Beckham They need a SS in the system and some offense. Astros- ------------ BPA: Eric Hosmer, Tim Melville, Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich, Tanner Scheppers
Actually, Shooter Hunt went 8 innings, 4 runs, 3 earned...not too bad really. Reliever after him gave up 2 runs.
Tanner Scheppers out for 6 weeks with a stress fracture IN HIS SHOULDER cross him off the board kiddos Shooter Hunt against Rice tonight- 8 innings, 5 hits, 4 runs, 3 earned 5 k's, 4BB Other HS Pitchers- Garrit Cole and Alex Meyer, but I think Melville is the most polished because he throws an average changeup
From what i've heard I doubt that Tim Beckham falls out of the top 5. I've also seen multiple rumors that the cws like Brett Wallace at 8, which would be a major reach
MLB.com top ten pick mock draft http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080514&content_id=2698111&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp
Tim Beckham's draft position is pretty fluid. He's a better athlete at this point than a pure baseball player, but its hard to ignore his tools. His bat is the biggest question. He compares favorably to guys like Andrew Mccutchen and Cameron Maybin, and they went 9 and 10. Guys like Matusz, Smoak, and Alvarez are pretty much can't miss guys. Crow throws 96 with command, and Posey is getting #1 consideration. It's very easy to go with these safe guys because all of them could be all stars. And with the way organizations are trying to get their picks up to the majors ASAP, i can see Beckham slipping out of the top 5.
I read somewhere that Matusz fastball was topping out at about 88mph this last year. The way they are talking about him reminds me of the way that they talked about CJ Nitkowski. The fact that he is a left hander and is very polished is making them overlook the central flaw of an average to below arm. I have no great knowledge base to back it up from or direct observation of Matusz, but I just worry that he is going to be the second comming of CJ Nitkowski - a 'can't miss' prospect, drafted #9 overall in '94 who pretty much missed.
