Yao 2007-08 Projected PER @ a league leading 28.51? LOL ... gotta love Hollinger for the hype, but I don't see that happening. New head coach, new teammates, new offensive system that depends less on one- or two-man show, lingering shoulder problem, concerns for possible toe/foot/leg re-injuries, Olympic games in the back of his mind, new family ... you name it. I wouldn't be surprised some of Yao's numbers may actually go down slightly, for instance, ppg or mpg. However, if he makes up those declines with increasing FG% and rebounds, I'd say he still meets my expectation, as far as individual stats are concerned. In the end, none matters more than leading the Rockets deep into the NBA playoffs and the CNT to new height in the Olympics .
Remember, this is what the computer spits out. A centers of Yao's age that put together the sort of stats he has the last few years ... usually come through with the sort of PER Hollinger has listed. It isn't what HOLLINGER thinks is going to happen, it's the projections of his stat model based on what has happened over the last 30 years to comparable players. It's the problem with the ESPN switch. In his books, Hollinger would say something like "I think his PER projection is too low" or "I find his projections to be a little optimistic" on about 30-35 percent of the player profiles. The issue is, few read the profiles (not harping on you, WNES, I agree with your points, and I just needed the quote). The reports offer qualifiers. That said, the projections, through the years, having been overwhelmingly spot-on to these eyes.
Yao had the 3rd highest PER in the league for 2006-07. It wouldn't be a stretch to go up only 2 slots.
On 2nd thought, WNES might have a point. Yao was projected to be 16th for 2006-07 but ended up 3rd. Hollinger's projections were way off. Lebron was projected 1st, but didn't make the top 5. 2006-2007 Hollinger Projections Actual 2006-2007 PER Rankings
The projections are still for 2007-2008, but the player profiles have not been updated, yet. We will have to wait for the profile update to see what Hollinger thinks about Yao in Adelman's new system.
