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$100 a barrel oil

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by olliez, Sep 19, 2007.

  1. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Yes, they do, but we have a '98 Camry that runs great and looks like hell. The only reason we haven't replaced it is looking towards my 16 year old son getting it in the near future. Having it around is going to be bad enough (I pity the neighbors!), but no way do I want to have two Camrys parked at my house. :p



    D&D. Attempt Civility!

    Impeach Bush for Creating Idiots.
     
  2. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    How bad could your 98 look? I have two (97 and 06) and they look just fine to me. :D

    Here is the hybrid, looks pretty good.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    When you consider the stakes for the world economy....what a ridiculous market. It's a kinda-sorta free market with cartels in control.

    I wanna start a traded moonshine market. I wanna buy moonshine futures.

    And they're back to saying what my dumb ass has been saying all along....the fundamentals don't support the price. When that happens, bubbles pop.

    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5294259.html



    Oil prices fell about $2 a barrel today after reports that OPEC would discuss increasing output at an upcoming meeting in a bid to cool record crude prices.

    Saudi Arabia's oil minister said Sunday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would discuss the issue of boosting production when it meets later this year.

    "The comments by the Saudi oil minister on the weekend didn't necessarily say that they're going to increase production, it wasn't quite that extreme, but the mere fact that he's speaking aloud about it shows that the issue is there," said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

    Light, sweet crude for December delivery dropped $2.40 to $93.92 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. In London, December Brent crude futures fell $1.92 to $91.26 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

    Reports of an attack an Exxon Mobil oil export terminal in Nigeria temporarily halted the slide, but company officials said operations were not disrupted and calm appeared to have been restored.

    Heating oil futures fell 4.88 cents to $2.5700 a gallon (3.8 liters) on the Nymex, while gasoline prices declined 5.89 cents to $2.3971 a gallon. Natural gas futures fell 15.4 cents to $7.743 per 1,000 cubic feet.

    Oil prices had surged to near $100 per barrel recently amid concerns about supplies, a weak U.S. dollar and OPEC's apparent reluctance to pump more crude into the market.

    Many traders and analysts say the effect of any output hike on prices is likely to be limited as the recent rise in crude futures has had more to do with speculation than a real demand. OPEC's next policy meeting is set for Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi.

    Estimates of where crude prices will go vary. Many analysts expect prices to rise to at least $100 a barrel, but a growing chorus is warning that futures are due for a sharp downturn soon.

    Few analysts believe the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand support such high prices.
    Many blame speculative investing fueled by the weak dollar. Oil futures offer a hedge against a weak dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the U.S. currency is falling.

    Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix in Switzerland said "increased volatility ... could have at times more to do with option position management than with fundamentals."

    William C. Ramsay, deputy executive director of the International Energy Agency, also blamed speculators for rising oil prices, saying they could be made to take their money elsewhere by better controlling energy demand and increasing conservation and supply.

    "The speculators wouldn't be in the market if the underlying conditions of the market weren't advantageous to the speculators," Ramsay told reporters in Tokyo. "Our attitude is: fix the fundamentals."

    Ramsay said oil-importing countries should work harder to stem the growth in demand through greater energy efficiency and conservation. Suppliers, meanwhile, should be more flexible about providing more oil to the market, he said.

    "I think we can remove a good bit of the incentive for the speculators, and they can go speculate somewhere else," Ramsay said.
     
  4. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    :confused: some guy was on msnbc saying that oil was still going up but the fundamentals support $60.

    to be more precise, he was saying you should be long, even though fundamentals are out of wack
     
  5. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    I guess the silver lining to a downturn in the world economy would be exposing oil prices with their true value.

    It's real ****ed up for the msnbc analyst to go long banking only on speculators and investors propping up the price. Guess I can't fault him for telling the truth...
     
  6. DonkeyMagic

    DonkeyMagic Contributing Member
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    a couple of wealthy brokers somewhere have a $1 bet going...
     
  7. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    What percentage, exactly, are high oil prices tied to the weak dollar? And will inflation in the dollar due to an economic downturn keep oil prices high?
     
  8. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    The '98 went through two major hail storms, of the golf ball variety, and we didn't bother having the dents taken out the second time. I know the new Camry looks very nice, but I just don't want two parked at my house. I'm not that big a fan of Toyotas! Maybe if they were two different models. ;)



    D&D. Attempt Civility!

    Impeach Bush.
     
  9. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Down nearly $4/barrel right now. According to the article below, price is affecting demand now.

    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5296849.html

    Oil prices drop on demand forecast


    By JOHN WILEN AP Business Writer
    © 2007 The Associated Press


    NEW YORK — Oil futures fell sharply to the $90 a barrel level Tuesday after the International Energy Agency cut its demand forecasts for the fourth quarter and next year and said crude supplies are growing.

    Selling accelerated after diplomats said Iran has handed over blueprints key to its nuclear program, meeting a central United Nations demand and potentially defusing the country's standoff with the West.

    "One of the reasons that we've been strong on oil all year is concerns about Iran's nuclear program," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

    Retail gasoline prices, meanwhile, rose further above $3 a gallon amid predictions prices will rise even more to catch up with oil's recent advance to near $100 a barrel. The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.4 cent overnight to $3.105, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Oil futures have jumped 42 percent since late August.

    Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell $4.17 to $90.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Only last Thursday, crude prices traded as high as $98.62, a record, and appeared on a relentless trek toward $100.

    On Monday, Energy Information Administration Administrator Guy Caruso predicted gas prices will rise another 20 cents a gallon by December to catch up with oil, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

    But those high prices appear to be cutting demand, the IEA said Tuesday. The IEA, an energy policy adviser to 26 predominantly Western industrialized nations, lowered its fourth-quarter oil demand forecasts by 500,000 barrels a day, and cut its demand forecasts for 2008 by 300,000 barrels a day. Year-over-year demand growth will now average 1.2 percent in 2007 and 2.3 percent in 2008, the IEA said.

    At the same time, global oil supplies grew by 1.4 million barrels a day in October due to increases in OPEC supplies and production in China, Azerbaijan and Russia, the IEA said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted output by 410,000 barrels a day in October, the IEA said.

    "There are ... strong indications that high prices are depressing demand," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

    Reports from the IEA are closely watched by energy traders and investors. Previous IEA predictions of strong fourth quarter demand and falling supplies have helped fuel crude prices.

    "As demand deteriorates, even slightly, that really takes the bullish (sentiment) out of the market," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla.

    Other Nymex petroleum futures also fell Tuesday. December gasoline futures dropped 10.54 cents to $2.3111 a gallon, while December heating oil futures fell 8.64 cents to $2.4957 a gallon.

    December natural gas futures rose 3.4 cents to $7.995 per 1,000 cubic feet.

    In London, December Brent crude fell $3.84 to $88.14 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

    Oil prices were also pressured Tuesday by indications OPEC may agree at a meeting next month to further boost output, and by Tuesday's expiration of December crude call options.

    On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister, Ali Naimi, reiterated that OPEC may discuss increasing output at a meeting next month in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, speaking at the World Energy Congress in Rome, said he has asked OPEC to increase production.

    Traders were awaiting the EIA's weekly inventory report, delayed until Thursday this week due to Monday's Veteran's Day holiday.

    The report is expected to show that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 300,000 barrels last week, according to the average estimate of analysts polled by Dow Jones. Gasoline inventories, on average, likely fell 100,000 barrels, while distillate stocks were expected to fall 300,000 barrels. Refinery use likely rose 0.7 percentage point to 86.9 percent of capacity.
     
    #169 MadMax, Nov 13, 2007
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2007
  10. rrj_gamz

    rrj_gamz Contributing Member

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    I still can't believe Oil is creeping near $100...It was crazy not even a year ago when it was $60/$70...

    It'll hit $100, but it'll be irrational
     
  11. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Yeah, it's all different today. Roughly 24 hours after the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts sending prices falling around $4/barrel, today it's up around $2/barrel. Which only makes sense. :confused: :D
     
  12. Major

    Major Member

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    To be fair, this is no different than the stock market or the real estate market or any other commodity market. The stock market went up 10% in 2 months, then down 8% in a week, and then up 3% in one day. There's no way the world was worth 8% less on November 10th than it was November 1st. Speculation is just a part of the market because companies are trying to lock in prices now based on whether they expect them to go up or down sometime down the road - and if you guess right, it can be a business-changing decision.

    I want to say I heard somewhere that several years ago, Southwest Airlines locked in years of fuel based on oil prices at something like $30 or $40. That gives them a huge competitive advantage now. If you feel that oil is going to be $120 in two years, it may be worth locking it in at $100 today - that kind of "fear" keeps the market going up, I guess.
     
  13. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    We all know whose fault it is...

    [​IMG]
     
  14. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    I know Fox is slanted, but that's just sickening.
     
  15. giddyup

    giddyup Contributing Member

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    Who thinks it'll go to $150?
     
  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    It could get that high from panic and uncertainty if oil countries switch to the Euro (followed by a painful crash). Papers are claiming oil is overpriced by $20-50. Maybe an Iran invasion will push it higher, but Saudi Arabia kept the prices in check during the Iraq War, I don't know to what extent they can curb speculation, but they'll be certain to try. It's their longevity on the line.

    If it gets higher like in the 120s, there will be hell to pay afterwards.
     
  17. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    about to drop $6 in two days. that's about six percent
     
  18. olliez

    olliez Contributing Member

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    Lol, welcome to 2008

    :eek:
     

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