Why does the #2 overall pick seem to not be any better than the #5 overall pick? I haven't done in depth analysis other than just looking at the draft since 1984, but the #2 overall seems to have a pretty high rate of disappointment. I know there was some study that someone posted that showed success rates by pick position, but I couldn't find it. Anyhow, just throwing this out there for discussion since I thought it was interesting and I am bored at work.
This is how bored I am.... 2010 Evan Turner v Demarcus Cousins 2009 Hasheem Thabeet v Ricky Rubio 2008 Michael Beasley v Kevin Love 2007 Kevin Durant v Jeff Green 2006 Lamarcus Aldridge v Shelden Williams 2005 Marvin Williams v Raymond Felton 2004 Emeka Okafor v Devin Harris 2003 Darko Milicic v Dwayne Wade 2002 Jay Williams v Nikoloz Tskitishvili 2001 Tyson Chandler v Jason Richardson 2000 Stro Swift v Mike Miller 1999 Steve Francis v Jonathan Bender 1998 Mike Bibby v Vince Carter 1997 Keith Van Horn v Tony Battie 1996 Marcus Camby v Ray Allen 1995 Antonio McDyess v Kevin Garnett 1994 Jason Kidd v Juwan Howard 1993 Shawn Bradley v Isaiah Rider 1992 Alonzo Mourning v Laphonso Ellis 1991 Kenny Anderson v Steve Smith 1990 Gary Payton v Kendall Gill 1989 Danny Ferry v J.R. Reid 1988 Rik Smits v Mitch Richmond 1987 Armon Gilliam v Scottie Pippen 1986 Len Bias v Kenny Walker 1985 Wayman Tisdale v Jon Concak 1984 Sam Bowie v Charles Barkley
#2 seems to get a lot of project big men, there's what 8 or 9 centres in that list and only 2 turned out anything better than a roleplayer and one of those not by much.
It always seems that in every draft, there is usually only that 1 cant miss future star that is taken 1. unfortunately, that cant miss is going to be drafted at 2 this year (williams)
2010 Evan Turner v Demarcus Cousins 2009 Hasheem Thabeet v Ricky Rubio 2008 Michael Beasley v Kevin Love 2007 Kevin Durant v Jeff Green 2006 Lamarcus Aldridge v Shelden Williams 2005 Marvin Williams v Raymond Felton 2004 Emeka Okafor v Devin Harris 2003 Darko Milicic v Dwayne Wade 2002 Jay Williams v Nikoloz Tskitishvili 2001 Tyson Chandler v Jason Richardson 2000 Stro Swift v Mike Miller 1999 Steve Francis v Jonathan Bender 1998 Mike Bibby v Vince Carter 1997 Keith Van Horn v Tony Battie 1996 Marcus Camby v Ray Allen 1995 Antonio McDyess v Kevin Garnett 1994 Jason Kidd v Juwan Howard 1993 Shawn Bradley v Isaiah Rider 1992 Alonzo Mourning v Laphonso Ellis 1991 Kenny Anderson v Steve Smith 1990 Gary Payton v Kendall Gill 1989 Danny Ferry v J.R. Reid 1988 Rik Smits v Mitch Richmond 1987 Armon Gilliam v Scottie Pippen 1986 Len Bias v Kenny Walker 1985 Wayman Tisdale v Jon Concak 1984 Sam Bowie v Charles Barkley Simple tally of my opinion on which pick was better by year is: #2 pick-12 #5 pick-15 So even with #2 pick Len Bias getting the edge, more #5 picks seem to be successful. Interesting.
