i've said many times that people tend to overstate the talent level of this rockets team - even when all players are healthy. the way it currently is, there're 2 yardsticks in the league. in the east its the cavs. for any team in the east that wants to contend for a title, there's a simple question they can ask themselves: are we good enough to beat the cavs in a 7-game series? and for the western conf. teams, that team is obviously gsw. if we ask ourselves the question now, are we good enough to beat the gsw in a best of 7 series? what is our chance? i dont think the answer is in our favor.
Right now basketball-reference has us pegged with a 1.8% chance of making the playoffs with virtually no chance to win the Conference Finals much less the Finals and projected wins ranging from a low of 17 to a high of 45 and expected wins at 31. http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Warriors?src=hash">#Warriors</a> have a 47% chance of winning the Finals. No other team is over 15 <a href="https://t.co/agG1Xxe6aM">https://t.co/agG1Xxe6aM</a> <a href="https://t.co/0rrPZzsez5">pic.twitter.com/0rrPZzsez5</a></p>— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) <a href="https://twitter.com/bball_ref/status/669244417253974016">November 24, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
This assumes that current production is maintained. I think we can all agree that there has to be some regression to the mean for most of these players, and that alone puts us near the middle of the pack in the West and nowhere near 17 games (seriously???). The reason that interval is so wide is that there is a LOT of basketball left to be played. I don't put any stock in those predictions this early in the year with this many variables in play.
Sadly you called it in the original post. I do like seeing we have a 9% chance to win the lotto. That's about the only thing that makes me happy right now.
17 and 45 is simply the range bulkatron. They ran 7500 simulations of the remainder of the season and none of them came out higher than 45 wins. 45 wins has us tied for the 8th seed last season with OKC and NOP. Read this for the rationale behind the probabilities: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/playoff_prob.html Yes, these probabilities will fluctuate up and down throughout the season. Just making notes now in this thread so we can peruse later. We have made a coaching change. And you can't factor that into probabilities. We'll also probably make a trade or two along the way and we'll get guys back. And you can't factor all that stuff into probabilities. However, 7500 simulations is 7500 simulations and the top end of the simulations was 45 wins bro. Those simulations account for 7500 different scenarios. So basically for us to top 45 wins we're going to have to play .600 ball the rest of the way. Look at the schedule and be realistic about this team. Be realistic about the fact that we most likely won't be able to add a significant piece to this team until after January 15th. Be realistic about what we lost defensively with Smoove and the rest of the guys that aren't here from last year's team. And then you'll see why the top end is at 45 wins. To compound the issue consider we have to play .750 ball the rest of the way to match our win total from last season. Look through the remaining 68 games and find 51 wins. Could it happen?? Anything is possible of course. But the odds of it happening, winning 51 out of 68 games, after starting 5-9, knowing DMo isn't going to be back until December, knowing that we can't make a major trade until after January 15th, are very small. Then understand that only 1 game separated the second seed from the 6th seed last year. We have to face facts. We're a long shot to make the playoffs in the West. And if we do we'll most likely be somewhere between 6-8 seeded and done in the first round without home court advantage. Our chances to finish in the top-4 in the West is virtually nil. Only an extreme long shot like winning 25 or 30 in a row or going 36-4 over a 40 game stretch is going to get us close to the top 4 in the West.
Here's a real simple bet you can place here. If the Rockets don't make the playoffs you'll contribute $100 to the board. If you really believe these probabilities are off that much go for it.
The way they run these simulations is they take current production (you accurately cannot predict improvement or regression from this model when looking only at the current season), and they simulate the season over and over to generate a range of estimates of wins. 17 wins is kind of pathetic - I don't know if they report range or standard deviations, but that means we got 12-56 the rest of the way. 45 seems more likely, going 40-28, just based on talent and health. But at any rate, I agree with you; top 4 is out of reach.
LOL at this projections. The wolves with a record of 6-8 has a 59.4% to make the playoffs? I guess their projections have no concept of what Rookie wall means.
That's about right for now, malakac. They've got 3 quality wins over Chicago, Atlanta, and Miami. Probably a little high. But we'll have to wait and see what happens with them. They are very improved. Gotta watch the games.
I have watched their games. Not all but enough. When Kat will hit the wall their defence will fall too. When KG can't give 17 mins they will fall. Also Wiggins improvement on the defencive end is very underwhelming compared to expectations. I have no confidence on how they are using Lavinne. Shabbaz is always injured. Not to mention that their other rookie which I really like Bjelika is a vet, but for the NBA standards of an 82 game season is still a rookie and will get fatigued and hit his own kind of rookie wall. Their reason for wins so early is what happens with the 6ers. Noone takes the serious and just coasting. That's why also the 6ers are able to keep the matches close until the 4rth. But how long will it last? Not long. Having such projections so early in itself is a dubious thing. But this takes it one step too much.
Not to mention the Suns. That's another big lol. Record 7-7. Projection to make the playoffs according to bballreference ? 85.3%! Have they looked at what kind of defence and offence the Suns play? It's basically pick up basketball. And their Center is old.
It is strange to me that clearly the rockets have the better players over both those teams and are either 1 game or 2 games back from both yet they have a 56% and 85% chance of making the playoffs. If be willing to bet neither make the playoffs. Bottem line is its way to early for playoff probabilities its honestly just stupid. I'f the rockets win 3 games in a row starting Tom those simulations change drastically and that's why there not reliable 14 games in. I'd like to check them out 50 games in, then I would be more inclined to pick up what there putting out.
Considering the fact we're probably last in both offense and defense, I'm not really surprised at those projections. At this point, the best we can hope for is a 7/8 seed.
