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[ClutchFans] What we learned from the Asik trade that wasn't
Tags:  basketball, clutchfans, houston rockets, nba, omer asik, trade Tags
The Cat is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:22 PM   #1
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Analysis on what we learned this week from the Rockets' negotiating strategy with Asik and what the ramifications could be in not trading him.

http://rockets.clutchfans.net/omer-a...de-that-wasnt/

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Last edited by The Cat; 12-21-2013 at 03:34 PM.
 
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count_dough-ku is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:30 PM   #2
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So basically if Asik wants out, stop pouting and go out there and remind teams why you're such a valuable commodity.
 
jtr is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:40 PM   #3
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I have to disagree with the Rockets addressing Parsons contract in the summer of 2014. His signing then would severely constrain the Rockets during the summer of 2015. Better to have $20M available to sign a free agent and then sign Parsons. I assume that we do not have his Bird rights because he was a second round pick. Is this true?
 
real_egal is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:42 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by count_dough-ku View Post
So basically if Asik wants out, stop pouting and go out there and remind teams why you're such a valuable commodity.
The league knows what Asik is capable of. He's not some undiscovered talent need to showcase himself. I don't think it's ever possible that Asik is going to play 110% as he did last year, especially after the whole self-imposed deadline saga.

The better he plays, the more will Morey ask, and the more difficult will he be moved. So, why would Asik do that, since we already labeled him as unprofessional whinny wussy?
 
Play07 is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:42 PM   #5
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What I learned from the asik NON trade is, if morey doesn't get something real good in return, he shouldve just stuck with asik and spent that $22mill other places to upgrade the team. The center was our hardest working position on the roster last year.
 
coachbadlee is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:43 PM   #6
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Yes. Strategy doesn't work if player doesn't work.

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The Cat is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:45 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtr View Post
I have to disagree with the Rockets addressing Parsons contract in the summer of 2014. His signing then would severely constrain the Rockets during the summer of 2015. Better to have $20M available to sign a free agent and then sign Parsons. I assume that we do not have his Bird rights because he was a second round pick. Is this true?
We will have his full Bird rights.

You're right about 2014, but that's my point -- it depends on what the Rockets get in an Asik deal. When I made the case a few weeks ago to re-sign Parsons in 2014, I was assuming that the Rockets would be able to get a good return for Asik. That is, at the very least, someone of the Millsap/Anderson tier that makes you a bonafide contender and gives you a lineup you're ready to go to war with for the next few years.

If the Rockets either keep Asik or trade him for guys the caliber of Bass/Lee (i.e. quarters on the dollar), then 2015 free agency becomes the priority and you have to wait on Parsons until after that. After this week, that scenario seems more likely, unfortunately. (Though maybe things can change if Asik comes back and plays well, along with an injury or two elsewhere.)

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beastlyball is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:47 PM   #8
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I didn't realize there was a lesson to be learned?
 
jim1961 is offline Old 12-21-2013, 03:58 PM   #9
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What we learned is rebuilding teams don't want to give up their picks.

It seems to me that a team already destined for the playoffs, with most of their key guys already in place, a team looking for one more piece (specifically a defensive 5) would be a much better target for relinquishing their picks.
 
webattorney is offline Old 12-21-2013, 04:02 PM   #10
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There is not much to lose or gain for Asik whether he plays hard or takes it easy. Other GMs know the value of Asik, which is: Good defender but lousy offensive player. Asik should focus on improving his offensive game to increase his value, but I doubt any effort will lead to an improvement in his offensive capability. The guy is too slow and and uncoordinated when it comes to offense.
 
Whoopy is offline Old 12-21-2013, 04:06 PM   #11
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What we learned is that the other GMs are playing Morey ball too.
 
Carl Herrera is offline Old 12-21-2013, 04:18 PM   #12
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As I tweeted to Ben, the sample size in the November 7 article he quoted is very small and Bass has never been statistically a very effective player in his entire career. He has basically been a below average player as measures by most stats like RAPM his entire career. I doubt he turned into an elite defender just now-- an elite defender would have helped his team win more games than they have so far.

Same applies to Lee. Average to below average guy. I like him better because he has a couple of useful skills in ball pressure D and 3 point shooting. Also a bit more mobile than Garcia. Nothing special.

In the end, these kind of guys will still be available come February in similar packages if not better, so why rush to make a deal now?

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Marsarinian is offline Old 12-21-2013, 04:34 PM   #13
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Great article, fantastic job.

I'd like to add just two points:

1. Although the contractual issue has been widely reported, I suspect that pick protection was a very significant reason why we ended up not taking the deal as well. There were reports of significant "haggling" between Morey and Ainge, and it's probably that constituted the core of the conversation with Hinkie as well. Those teams were not willing to give up anything less than a heavily protected first rounder (likely lottery protected), and that to Morey wasn't enough to compensate for losing Asik.

2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cat
The value that brings to the table, in all likelihood, is worth more to winning (over the near-term) than the 12-to-15 minutes that Asik will play behind Howard.
I disagree with this claim. While it would be nice to have a more consistent starting four, and a nice defensive, 3-point shooting back up wing, I think you're underestimating the impact of a elite defender/rebounder like Asik on our second unit. Asik keyed our bench, period. He is by far the most important member of our bench (followed by Lin).

As other sources have reported, if Asik can shut up, put his head down and produce, Morey would be perfectly happy with keeping him.

We're trying to trade Asik, because he has adamantly indicated that he doesn't want to be here. That's why we're trying to maximize his value by asking for draft picks, etc. Of all of the possible trade scenarios that have been floated, the Philly trade (Hawes) and the Boston trade all hurt our team basketball wise. A one-for-one swap with Millsap may be a marginal improvement.

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Kiddsir is offline Old 12-21-2013, 06:21 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by real_egal View Post
The league knows what Asik is capable of. He's not some undiscovered talent need to showcase himself. I don't think it's ever possible that Asik is going to play 110% as he did last year, especially after the whole self-imposed deadline saga.

The better he plays, the more will Morey ask, and the more difficult will he be moved. So, why would Asik do that, since we already labeled him as unprofessional whinny wussy?
It doesn't matter he's whinny wussy or what?
The point is poison pill for his contract, Morey has to deal with it.
 
pocketrocket81 is offline Old 12-21-2013, 06:37 PM   #15
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This may have already been mentioned in another thread and I am sorry if this sounds stupid.

Asik wants to be the starter and is unhappy getting 15 minutes a game. Why not just reverse Howard and Asiks roles for a while and see if it works out until a trade can be made?

This way Asik gets showcased and contributes like he did last year. Also Howard gets used a lot less and come playoff time will be better for less wear and tear.

I don't know if Howard or Asik would be o.k. with it and it may have already been mentioned to them and shot down by one or the other. But if it hasn't then maybe it could work temporarily.
 
Aruba77 is offline Old 12-21-2013, 08:21 PM   #16
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Cap experts! Is it possible to resign parsons at $9 mil per and still have enough space for 3 max contracts?
 
The Cat is offline Old 12-21-2013, 08:24 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Herrera View Post
As I tweeted to Ben, the sample size in the November 7 article he quoted is very small and Bass has never been statistically a very effective player in his entire career. He has basically been a below average player as measures by most stats like RAPM his entire career. I doubt he turned into an elite defender just now-- an elite defender would have helped his team win more games than they have so far.

Same applies to Lee. Average to below average guy. I like him better because he has a couple of useful skills in ball pressure D and 3 point shooting. Also a bit more mobile than Garcia. Nothing special.

In the end, these kind of guys will still be available come February in similar packages if not better, so why rush to make a deal now?
This was from last April:

Quote:
But Bass has made the biggest strides on the other end of the floor. Over the past nine games, Bass is allowing a mere 0.684 points per play, according to Synergy data. To put that in perspective, that's an Avery Bradley-caliber number (for the season, Bradley has allowed 0.695 points per play, best in the NBA among those with at least 400 plays defended).

Bass already was eighth on that list at 0.761 points per play, but the fact that he's elevated his defensive game without Garnett is unexpected.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/...eltics-defense

I could be wrong, because I'll admit, a good chunk of my opinion on Bass has been from personal observation (he's been on some very visible Boston and Orlando teams). But I've always been impressed by Bass from the standpoint of position and team defense, and what limited non-traditional numbers that I've seen appear to bear that out.

Will "guys like that" be available in February? Maybe in terms of overall value, yes. But would they fit so neatly into our biggest two weaknesses? (To me, those are Francisco Garcia and general PF play.) Possible, but I wouldn't call it a slam dunk or easy. I agree with not pulling the trigger on this trade because of Lee's contract, but otherwise, I wouldn't hate it. It's definitely not my preferred (as I said in the article, I'm a quality over quantity guy and want to see Asik traded for an impact player), but I do think it would make for an incremental upgrade over the near-term.

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daywalker02 is online now Old 12-21-2013, 08:43 PM   #18
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thanks, Cat.

You pointed out how useful those players are although their contracts are not ideal.

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haoafu is offline Old 12-21-2013, 09:10 PM   #19
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Early last season, morris was once one of the top defensive players in synergy point per possession allowed, and Greg Smith was at the top of the efficiency rating for extended period... The overall impact of Bass is still just average if not below average.
 
TheFreak is offline Old 12-21-2013, 09:13 PM   #20
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quote:
If Morey was completely sold on this group of Rockets, as currently constructed, as a championship favorite ó thatís a trade he probably makes. He didnít. Itís not that the current Rockets canít win a title, but theyíre not yet at a point where Morey feels secure in surrendering significant flexibility for any short-term upgrade.


I agree here, and I think it's either a big indictment on the 2 players the Rockets are giving MAX money to right now, or Morey's ability to put talent around them.

You have two guys that are supposed to be the best at their positions, signed to max money, and you're basically throwing in the towel on the season? How do I know that's what you're doing? Because you're content with possibly not even having homecourt in the first round of the playoffs this year. How do I know you're okay with that? Well maybe because you currently do NOT have HCA, along with the fact that you signed Howard to the max in the offseason and haven't traded his backup yet who also makes a ton of money. The guy who has provided exactly zero or possibly negative value this year. It's not like this past week was the only chance there was to trade the guy.

To me, the worst case scenario coming into this year was a 2nd round exit. I become pissed when that starts looking like a best case scenario.
 

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