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View Poll Results: Can Lin develop into a decent spot up shooter?
Yes for sure 132 25.00%
He will improve, but will still rely on ball in hand to be effective 230 43.56%
He will continue shooting it like this 166 31.44%
Voters: 528. You may not vote on this poll

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Can Lin develop into a decent spot up shooter?
Tags:  basketball, houston rockets, james harden, miami, nba Tags
AvgJoe is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:05 AM   #1
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After Lin's infamous air ball in the game vs. Miami, many has come out to criticize him, and many has defended him. Put aside the LOH vs. LOF, do you see Lin capable of developing into a decent spot up shooter?

He is more and more used as a spot up shooter. I understand many think coaching stuff is used him "wrong", but is it possible the coaching stuff is trying to develop his other areas, so he can operate without the ball? This way they can fit him better with Harden. If Lin continues on relying ball in hand to be effective, that will create a conflict with Harden eventually and neither will be utilized efficiently. What I see is coaching stuff is trying to fit Lin in with Harden, searching for ways to have him effective without the ball.

It is still very early in the season, so what we should do is to be patient and pay attention to his progress as the season continues, not to make conclusions base of a few games. Lin is adjusting to his new role, and coaching stuff is testing him out that way. Let them figure it out.
 
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Arthurprescott2 is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:11 AM   #2
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http://www.basketball-reference.com/...shooting/2013/

here's his shooting splits and shot chart for reference.

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roxxy is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:11 AM   #3
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This is a really interesting question. Honestly I don't know if he can & personally I don't like that they are trying to force him into that role. 80% of the shots he has taken thus far have been from 3 & very few of them have come elsewhere (at the rim, midrange) It bothers me that the only picks & screens that are being run are for Harden only. I think if we continue down this route we will see Hardens numbers drop drastically & Lin's numbers drop massively.

These are numbers from last year. Lin Offense 0.87 (252nd, 586 poss) including 1.02 (8th) on Isos (15.9% of poss) and 0.80 P&R (67th, 42.8% of poss) Lin was VERY good w/ ball in his hands Mediocre spotting up 0.94 (159th 13.3% of poss) & transition 0.86 (267th 14.3% of poss)

Thus far he is a lot better in transition, still very good with the ball in his hands, & still mediocre in spot ups. I think the best he will ever shoot from the perimeter will likely be 32-35%.

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either that or Harden is being vastly underrated by a so called Rockets fan who supposedly watched majority of the Rockets games last season where Harden night in and night out carry the Rockets offense and torch whatever defense the opposing team throws at him
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stats are only credible if they point to jlin as the better player
Stats: Advanced Stats Primer | Basketball-Reference | Hoop Data | Team Rankings | NBA WOWY! | NBA.com (Advanced) | Vorped | Popcorn Machine | NBA Graphs
 
JJ23 is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:12 AM   #4
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so ur asking if he can become jeremy novak? nah
 
AvgJoe is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:15 AM   #5
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I haven't followed him that much to see it. Just throwing a question out there and see if there is anyone who can give some feedback. Best if it can be backed up with stats.
 
AvgJoe is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:16 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthurprescott2 View Post
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...shooting/2013/

here's his shooting splits and shot chart for reference.
I've read that his shooting form isn't very good, with the right elbow sticking out a bit. Maybe that is something he can work on.
 
Aruba77 is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:17 AM   #7
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Lin as a spot-up shooter is a huge waste, so ...i really hope we don't go that route.
 
instar is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:18 AM   #8
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decent? yeah, i think he can be a decent spot up shooter with years of practice. but i don't think he's ever going to be lights out kind of player.
 
Arthurprescott2 is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:18 AM   #9
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He finishes at the rim around 61% of the time which is a bit lower than Rondo/Irving level (Lin is better than Dragic, Westbrook, Parker, and Lawson, but worse than CP3 who finishes 70%+ at the rim ).

Anything outside of that he shoots less than 30% - his 3pt% is 30%. So no, he will never become a good spot-up shooter. ~25% for jumpshots vs. ~60% for layups. Numbers lay out the answers for us here.

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AvgJoe is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:19 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roxxy View Post
This is a really interesting question. Honestly I don't know if he can & personally I don't like that they are trying to force him into that role. 80% of the shots he has taken thus far have been from 3 & very few of them have come elsewhere (at the rim, midrange) It bothers me that the only picks & screens that are being run are for Harden only. I think if we continue down this route we will see Hardens numbers drop drastically & Lin's numbers drop massively.

These are numbers from last year. Lin Offense 0.87 (252nd, 586 poss) including 1.02 (8th) on Isos (15.9% of poss) and 0.80 P&R (67th, 42.8% of poss) Lin was VERY good w/ ball in his hands Mediocre spotting up 0.94 (159th 13.3% of poss) & transition 0.86 (267th 14.3% of poss)

Thus far he is a lot better in transition, still very good with the ball in his hands, & still mediocre in spot ups. I think the best he will ever shoot from the perimeter will likely be 32-35%.
Last year, he already had problem sharing ball with Melo. And he was never really put up to the spot as being a shooter. I can imagine he wasn't concentrating on improving his shooting, but now that his new role will involve a lot of spot up shooting, I see him developing that area as priority, I just don't know his games enough to see if he has in him.
 
bongman is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:20 AM   #11
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He does not have to become a Steve Novak but he needs to be reliable for the spot up 3. Otherwise, it would be easy for the opposition to double team whoever has the ball and let Lin shoot that all day long. In order to keep the defense honest, he will need to hit that shot at a good percentage. Chandler is not a Novak either but he has accepted this role and worked on this portion of his game all summer long. Lin is such a very good player that I see no reason why he can't be a reliable 3 point shooter. He has to develop this part of his game or we are doomed.
 
AvgJoe is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:22 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aruba77 View Post
Lin as a spot-up shooter is a huge waste, so ...i really hope we don't go that route.
Don't mean to make him only shoot spot ups, but it will make his game more round if he can develop it. He will be more versatile if he can shoot from the outside and drive as well.
 
duteman is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:23 AM   #13
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if he got as many 3 attempts as harden he'd have a good chance to be out of his slump. He has consistent mechanics so i don't see why he wouldn't improve.

Lin was very effective with the 2 dribble pull up mid range. I want to see more of that vs being a 3pt camper
 
AvgJoe is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:26 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bongman View Post
He does not have to become a Steve Novak but he needs to be reliable for the spot up 3. Otherwise, it would be easy for the opposition to double team whoever has the ball and let Lin shoot that all day long. In order to keep the defense honest, he will need to hit that shot at a good percentage. Chandler is not a Novak either but he has accepted this role and worked on this portion of his game all summer long. Lin is such a very good player that I see no reason why he can't be a reliable 3 point shooter. He has to develop this part of his game or we are doomed.
Agree with you, but I don't know if we can see him develop into one, maybe at least not this season. He needs a summer of shooting shooting and shooting.
 
Arthurprescott2 is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:26 AM   #15
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http://www.basketball-reference.com/...shooting/2013/

BTW, Harden's layup vs. jumpshot %s are very similar. 60% vs. 27%. He's actually shooting worse from 3pt line (he's taken 43 already this season).

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Arthurprescott2 is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:28 AM   #16
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coaching staff wants to develop the players weaknesses; thus the insistance on using Asik (51% at the rim) to finish and for Lin to shoot 3s. square pegs into round holes.

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bongman is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:30 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AvgJoe View Post
Agree with you, but I don't know if we can see him develop into one, maybe at least not this season. He needs a summer of shooting shooting and shooting.
I believe it is just a matter of confidence. Remember when Lowry had issues with this shot and it was questioned why the coaches kept allowing him to do so? The coaches mentioned that he does it so well in practice but for some reason, it was not dropping during games. I have a feeling the same thing is happening with Lin. Once he gains that swagger back, we will see him hit those shots.
 
scaramanga is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:31 AM   #18
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Yes.. why not.. Lin is a survivor.. he will adjust or he will not survive... Got no stat here, but looking at how he adjusted to woodson.. he will adapt.. though how long it will take? not sure... I don't think that Lin is the type that whines when things do not fit his game, instead he will work it out ... Thinking long term, may not be a bad idea to add new weapons to his game..

Maybe the coaches are planning towards that long term goal... Since Harden is supposed to be the foundational player, Lin needs to develop skills that complement to HArden's..
 
Horry4theWin is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:38 AM   #19
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No doubt he will improve, but his strengths are with the ball trying to break down defenses and distributing the ball.

If there's going to be a game where Lin steps it up, it's probably going to be this upcoming Sunday vs the Lakers. Lin tends to step it up against the team before and during Linsanity.
 
mike_lu is offline Old 11-14-2012, 10:38 AM   #20
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The answer is you don't know.

Kyle Lowry had three seasons shooting between 24.6% and 27.2% from 3s in Memphis + Houston, and the last two seasons he was pretty consistent at 37%. And what we heard was he was pretty good during practice, but could never translate into real games, and once he did, he never lost it.

Jason Kidd was also pretty inconsistent when young, but has developed into a pretty good spot up 3pt shooter.
 

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