Could the 2012-13 Rockets be better than the 2011-12 Rockets?

The obvious answer is NO. But I think we are closer than most people believe.

Let's look at it on a key STATS basis for 2011-12. Note usage only impacts the AST%, not TS% or TRB%

PG position
USG% TS% TRB% AST%
Jeremy Lin 28.3 55.2 6.6 41.3 (32.5% USG adj to Dragic/Lowry)
Goran Dragic 22.0 56.7 5.6 32.7
Kyle Lowry 22,1 55.8 8.3 32.6

Obviously, the Dragic/Lowry combo is better than Lin + Douglas (no need to put up the numbers), but individually between the three it is pretty much a wash. But also note Dragic didn't play great until Lowry went down, Lowry missed significant time and wasn't the same when he came back, and Dragic/Lowry played together a fair bit.

Advantage: 2011-12 rockets, but not a big margin


SG position
USG% TS% TRB% AST%
Harden 21.7 66.0 7.4 19.4
Delfino 15.6 51.4 7.5 12.0
Martin 24.6 55.4 5.0 14.5
Lee 17.8 53.4 5.3 8.1

Here, it is obvious Harden/Delfino will be a big upgrade over Martin/Lee. We can expect Harden's usage to get up to 25% at least, ie similar levels to Martin, Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis in Milwaukee, even Michael Redd, Demarr Rozen are at this levels vs Kobe at 36% and DWade at 32%. Given Harden's playmaking skills, a level around 27-28% is possible. At this usage, even a slight drop in TS% is still much better than Martin's 55%, and remember Martin missed a chunk of last season as well. Lee has a slight edge over Delfino in TS% but is not significant. But Harden/Delfino will be a huge passing/assisting and decent rebounding upgrade over Martin/Lee, and defensively also, mostly due to Harden over the 2011-12 Martin while Lee probably has a slight edge on Delfino on defense.

Advantage: 2012-13 Rockets, by a landslide


SF Position

I'm going to go easy on data on this one, except to say that 2012-13 Chandler Parsons promises to be a significant improvement over the 2011-12 Chandler Parsons, in terms of playmaking, 3PT% and FT% (and hence TS%), and most importantly by playing Parsons 35min per night vs 28min per night and taking minutes from Budinger defensively it should be a big boost. Although I expect a big improvement from Marcus Morris, I would give the edge to the 2011-12 Bud over him at this stage of his career.

Advantage: Draw, 2011-12 Parsons + Bud = 2012-13 Parsons + Morris
(minutes adjusted), but if McHale played Delfino at both 2 & 3 (and Morris less), then the advantage goes to 2012-13 Rockets.

Let's stop here for just a moment ... if we simply look at positions PG through SF, I'd argue the 2012-13 Rockets will be better than the 2011-12 Rockets, with a big advange at SG, a slight edge at SF assuming Delfino plays there also, a significant improvement in terms of TS%, rebounding and assists, and the PG position may not be at a big disadvantage if Harden assumes the playmaking roles while Lin sits and Toney Douglas reverts to his 2009-11 shooting and brings his good defense.


PF Position
Not going into the stats because we know Scola & PPat's production well here, and everyone else is new so no data. What IS difficult to escape, is that there is no low post presence to draw double teams (or at least real attention) with Scola gone. In fact, if we had not amnestied Scola, I would say the Rockets are almost a lock for the play-offs. Losing Scola also means improved defense and rebounding, almost by default, and I think we can assume that a healthy PPat can at least shoot 50% on 2pt FG (56% in 2009-10 and 44% in 2010-11). And Terrence Jones + DMo should be at least on par with the 2011-12 Rockets Jordan Hill (not the Lakers Jordan Hill that only needed to rebound). Still, there's no getting away from how different an offense will look when none of its big men can draw a double team. Which is why it may not surprise to see Marcus Morris get a bit more burn this year, both as back-up SF and back-up PF, as he has the skills to command a double-team in the post.

Advantage: 2011-12 Rockets, by a considerable but not huge margin


Center Position:
Omer Asik was #5 in the league in TRB% at 20.4%, despite having to fight with excellent rebounders in Gibson and Boozer. Marcus Camby actually led the league at 22.5%, while Dalembert was 18.5%. I couldn't get Cole Aldrich's TRB% because he did not play enough minutes (playing behind Perkins and veteran Mohammad in a contender), but per 48min, his stats were 13.3reb & 4.4blks vs 18.8 & 3.0 for Camby, 15.1 and 3.7 for Dalembert and 17.3 and 3.4 for Omer. I think the big difference here though, is Omer's defense - numbers that don't show through these stats. PnR defense, position defense, speed of recovery etc. And Camby joined the Rockets only after the trade deadline, by then Dalembert had pretty much checked out of the team.

Advantage: I'm inclinded to give it to the 2012-13 Rockets, by a slight edge, just because Asik is that good, and his improved condition and confidence this year could up his numbers higher still. Obviously Aldrich cannot compare with Dalembert as a reserve. But I think he can hold his ground as a center better than PPat and/or Jordan Hill, and that was the first half of the 2011-12 Rockets (sad).


So overall, I think the 2012-13 Rockets are going to be a better defensive team (Asik, PPat vs Scola, Harden vs Martin), a better rebounding team (Harden/Delfino vs Martin/Lee, Asik vs Dalembert + half season of Camby, PPat + our PFs vs PPat + Scola), a better TS% team (Harden mostly, as well as Parsons improving), and a much better passing team overall (Harden/Delfino vs Martin/Lee).

Our main challenge is finding consistent offensive production out of PF, especially someone to draw double teams on post-ups. And hope that Aldrich and Toney Douglas can perform when called upon.

But overall, I don't think we are much worse off than last year, and I think we could even argue that we are about even, given and take some uncertainties about how much of Linsanity can Lin maintain, how Harden translates with starter minutes, whether Parsons will hit the sophomore wall, if PPat/T Jones can step up, and how Asik will fare playing 35 min per game. So far, it looks like everything is heading in the right direction, except for Lin's shot. But it is important to note that Lin's playmaking, running of team, turnovers all seemed to have improved, and despite the poor shooting in pre-season, he still had pretty good adjusted +/- numbers.


P.S. Now if we need someone to draw double teams out of the PF position ... I'd take Al Jefferson over J-Smooth & Paul Millsap (unless Aldridge or Love is available). Al's an average defender (but good shot-blocker) but we have plus defenders in Parson and Asik in the frontcourt, a great halfcourt offensive player (our weakest link), and he draws double teams as well as almost anyone in the league at the PF spot. With the passing we have on this team, we can probably raise his TS% a bit also. We also reunite him with the guy that drafted him, and the guy that traded for and developed him.

 

Dunno how to do one actually ...

... it'll be 85%+ NO anyway

 

And you didn't need to write this in a thread that is clearly about Rockets with Lin only getting his fair share of discussion as a starting PG, nothing more.

You can be better than this

 

Yup, that was the other thing I wanted to write down but got lost in the long scribble. I think the starting five is going to be fine, mature, smart, low turnover players with multi-faceted skills, it's the bench I'm concerned about.

BTW, yes, I would say Lin is only average in terms of turnovers relative to other PGs given his high usage rate. And he offsets it by being best-in-league in creating high FG% assists (corner 3s and shots at basket).

 

Then it would be useless to make any Rockets team polls, right? Because Lin is part of the team. Or whether Harden is the best player on the team, because Lin fans would vote no (you know what people say about assumptions). We probably can't vote on Harden vs White beard, because Lin may have facial hair right?

The response was pointless, and yours not exactly well thought through either ...

 

It's also unfortunate people will come out of nowhere and make this an issue, especially when there actually wasn't a poll made, and was just a decent (in my opinion, others may disagree of course) discussion of the team and its progression from 2011-12 to 2012-13, with Lin only getting his share of the discussion.

And you guys think fans of Lin are the only ones making threads all about Lin or creating unnecessary arguments on the site. Please ... just look at the whole thread again and see whether a better discussion could have been made without bringing the Lin-poll into it.

Actually there was - discussion on lack of experience, and Dragic and his short stint as starter also. Let's stick to the more meaningful posts, shall we?

 

Very much agree, especially as we still have max cap room next year with all of our young guys locked into cheap contracts for the next 2-3 years.

I'm also interested to see the results of Daryl Morey bringing in 3 of the better/best adjusted +/- players available in free agency/trade this year. Lin's +/- is offset by loss of Dragic/Lowry, but Harden and Asik's definitely better than the players at the position they replaced. The rest of the Rocket's losses - Scola, Bud, Lee etc did not have significantly high +/- numbers.

 

This was written just for your question. Jeremy Lin's 4th quarter PER.
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-120406-07/weekend-dime-jeremy-lin-undrafted

Out of Dragic and Lowry ... I would say Dragic was better in the 4th quarter, because he had more moves and could create better off the dribble. Lowry was more predictable, step-back 3pt shot or barge into the lane to force some action (shot or foul). Before Lowry became starter though, he was great defensively and turned games that way many a times in the 4th quarter.

 

The other comment I was going to make on Harden, was that he wasn't even considered a top 10 SG entering the 2011-12 season.

He had only started 5 games, did some promising things, but only shot 35% from 3s and 44% FG overall for 12ppg on 27min.

Those are decent back-up 2 numbers, but didn't set the world on fire.

It was 2011-12 where he really moved into top 5 SG discussions, and won the 6th man of the year award. And shot 39% from 3s and 49% FG overall.

Harden could well continue to improve.