Those predictions are pretty worthless. I remember we had an over 97% chance to make the postseason a few years ago, and we lost 7 straight and blew it lol.
We are now 5-10 through the first 15 games. No team has ever started 5-10 and went to the Finals in the 3-point era (1980). Only two teams, the 2005 Pistons (7-8) who were without Ben Wallace for 8 of their first 15 games and the 1981 Rockets (6-9) who played when there were 3-game playoff series, have made it to the Finals with a losing record after their first 15. The 2005 Pistons were 10-10 and the 1981 Rockets were 9-11 respectively after their first 20 games. We'll have to rattle off 4 out of 5 just to stay in the sights of that 1981 Rockets team. As far as those meaningless playoff probabilities that Basketball-Reference.com does here http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi, we currently have a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs with average win probability at 29 and a range of 16-45 wins.
After 25 games, we are 12-13. Still underwater. Have not broken out and stayed above .500 even though we peek-abooed up above .500 for briefly getting one game above .500 at 4-3 before sinking again. We have a 12-13 record against teams that are a combined 206-236. We are 8-6 against teams with a losing record. We are 4-7 against teams with a winning record. We're probably going to have to win 37 more games just to get to #5 in the playoffs and avoid GS, SA, and OKC in the first round. That means we have to play essentially .650 ball from here on out. And 36 of our remaining 57 games are against teams with a winning record right now. That means if we won all 21 games remaining against teams with a losing record that we'd still have to win 16 out of 36 games (.444) against teams with winning records just to get to 49 wins. If we only play .800 ball in those remaining 21 games against losing teams we will then have to win 20 out of 36 (.555) against those teams with winning records to get to 49 wins. If we only play .750 ball against the losing teams going forward, then we'll have to win 58% of our remaining games against teams with winning records just to get to 49 wins. And the hill gets even more steeper if we fall below .750 against losing teams. Other notes: We are 9-2 when we outrebound our opponent and we are 3-11 when we get outrebounded by our opponent. No team has gone to the Finals having a losing record over the first 25 regular season games since 7-game playoff series became uniform across all rounds of the playoffs in 2002-03. Bottom Line: This is a 40-45 win team MAX. We are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether without a significant personnel change soon. And as constructed we have virtually NO CHANCE of going to the Finals.
If this team is only capable of winning 45 games given the talent on the roster and the lack of any major injuries(for now anyway), then Morey needs to blow it up and start over. You can't tweak your way from 45 wins to a title contender. Not with the Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder(not to mention the Cavs) in your way.
I'm not in favor of blowing it up. Blowing it up entails moving on from the Harden/Howard core. And that would be a total loser with no telling how many years of despair before we acquired another cornerstone franchise player. We simply can't do that. But we do need major changes to compete with those teams you just mentioned. For us to have a chance against those aforementioned teams our needs in order of importance are: 1. A big that can defend the paint as an anchor and can control the defensive glass when Dwight sits. Capela isn't that guy. You can look at his splits and see it. When we have to go against the monster teams, Capela's rebounding and defense goes in the tank. He can't hold up against size. He's simply not mature enough. It would be nice if this backup big could run pick and pop and shoot a 3 or be at least an efficient shooter from the top of the key too since this would open up space for DMo to operate in the post and open up space for Harden's drives. 2. A secondary playmaker that can defend and bring the ball up in transition and make a play with either the pass or the finish. It's gotta be a guy with a great handle that can weave in and out of traffic, get to the rim, and also find guys. He's gotta be able to create. 3. One great spot-up shooter that can catch-and-shoot a high volume of 3-balls efficiently. If we were able to subtract Lawson, Terrence, Brewer, and whomever else among McDaniels, Dekker, Harrell and acquire these 3 players we'd have a chance to turn this season upside down. But without getting 1 and 2 above, we aren't going to do anything more than a first or possibly by some miracle a second round playoff exit.
Season started like garbage and it has remained. Only silver lining is we've mostly played well against the better teams.... 2-1 vs Warriors/Clippers/Thunder Dwight is playing more games now and DMo is back. Hopefully injuries turn favorable. We need all the help possible to offset our crap effort and coaching.
true. but also, our schedule up until now has been pretty soft. i've said it once that december is the key month for this team to turn things around in terms of standings, because after this month the going gets tougher. but they're still losing to teams like denver. smh.
Like I said, same players and same coaching staff. Bickerstaff is part of the staff that produces the same garbage offense and defensive schemes. Players aren't changing their bad habits because there isn't accountability warranted from the coaches.
Yeah I think I saw somewhere that being above .500 at the new year essentially means statistically the Rockets should have life to be a playoff team. There is a high likelihood of trades regardless but the major deals are much less likely if Morey still statistically sees this team in the playoffs. But that just means making the playoffs are still in play. It doesn't mean there is any data that suggests the Rockets are a contender based on historical data. It only means that a major reshuffle would likely be prolonged. It doesn't mean that its not going to happen unless the Rockets have a miraculous late season and playoff run. So we will see how serious Morey is about the stars of this team (mostly Dwight). He's said before about how bad it is to be stuck in the middle. If the Rockets already peaked last year, and are statistically showing to be a team that is what it is, then I fully expect Morey to put his money where his mouth is, and at least recreate the team around Harden & Howard.... at least. At most I would expect a Dwight Howard deal that majorly reshuffles the makeup of this team. I guess we will see how much Morey really believes in Dwight Howard because that's the big move that he SHOULD make if they really need to rebuild... and I actually really like Dwight, and think he's got some good quality years left in the tank... just not quality years that you can pay 25+ million a year for. We shall see, but the data is showing now that its likely this team is what their record says they are.... a borderline playoff team. Another fun year as a Rockets fan... yay.
Making the playoffs this year is saving face and it aint that hard with other teams struggling records. Long term this team has deeper issues. I always thought there was essentially wrong with the owner and GM relationship. See basically the hiring and firing of coaches
What do you mean by blow it up? Everyone is moveable, or you have some pieces you don't get rid of? Not that it isn't obvious, but this is clearly going to be DM's toughest year. Make a move now and have fewer assets to trade come trade deadline when you have a better feel for the team's true upside (even with that new person). Wait till the trade deadline. How much committed salary to take on. How to evaluate Dwight for the offseason. The Harden question - its not "really" a question, but increasingly seems like it might be... does he have it in him to at least TRY defensively? Etc, etc.
I'm sure you've heard the sayings before about history repeating itself right? Look at what happened with Morey & Les years ago. Morey changed the coach (JVG), for a coach that he thought could make the stars on the team (namely Yao) more productive, and he started reshaping the supporting cast.... making the Battier move, and other smaller moves that he thought would make the difference. What Morey didn't want to do until he absolutely had to was trade one of the teams superstars. So what's the likely scenario here???... I know that I personally think that trading Dwight should be your major move to shuffle the deck, but I think its highly unlikely. Most likely this Summer Morey finds a better coach FOR HARDEN (probably knowing he needs more accountability & structure) and maybe see a Battier type of deal. At the end of the day as you say.... saving face... might very well happen because of the past history here, and in sports in general. "Just being a playoff team" is something very few owners will turn down for the unknown. ... or knowingly taking the Philly route. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens, but right now I think the expectations should be pretty minimal. Probably looking at a couple small deals at the deadline (maybe move Jones, D-Mo, KJ, etc.). The biggest deal I would anticipate would be a Lawson deal, but at this point I don't know if he has any value at all other than with his contract (which that value would only be value if you want to take back salary which I doubt the Rockets do). Also based on past history I fully expect a big name coaching hire. Probably Thibs. Sorry JB but you probably won't get the chance that Rudy T had. Morey is smart enough to know that JB is basically the same thing as McHale, but they needed to fire McHale to at least shake up the locker room to have any shot of salvaging the season.
Were those the wrong moves? I don't think so. The premise is that star players are the hardest commodity to come by. If you think the same then the moves make sense. If you believe star players are replaceable then yes, you are completely opposed to the current front office's management philosophy. Even now, I think there's more chance for success if we try to change Harden and Dwight's attitudes than to move them and find their replacements.
Here we sit, 15-15, .500, 30 games into the season. We are 12-2 when we outrebound our opponent. We are 3-13 when we get outrebounded by our opponent. Looking forward at our schedule it's very difficult to project that we will have over 20 wins when we play the Cavs on January 17, the halfway point of the season. And we are actually on the side of the slippery slope now as we could very easily be below .500 when we play the Cavs. I'm looking forward to January 15th since that's the date that our other free agent signees becomes trade-eligible. We need: 1. A backup to Dwight that can lock down the paint, control the glass, and step outside and somewhat spread the floor either at the high post as a playmaker or as a shooter. 2. A better 3&D version than Brewer. A guy Brewer's size that can both shoot/score efficiently and dog the dickens out of one of the opponent's primary perimeter scoring threats. 3. A longer version of Marcus Thornton. A guy in the 6-6 to 6-9 that can flat out score the basketball. 4. A defined resolution as to who the backup playmaker to Harden is. That could still be Lawson but we need it clearly defined. And if it is Lawson then it is even more important that we acquire a true 3&D threat along with a bigger version of Thornton since Lawson is primarily a playmaker that breaks down the D and goes to the hole.
Last nite's fiasco er game was a microcosm of the season IMO. When TheGoodGuys focused in they blew away the lesser Orlandans. The other 36 minutes they gave up every loose ball, ORBs galore, uncontested lay-ups. Playing to the level of the comp? The beauty of the p/o run was the beauty of Rudy T's championship Rox: focus. Playing for the guys with you. This unfocused group needs...something. Starting with an Ariza clone.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NBA team defense at the rim <a href="https://t.co/XeUkOBXE3k">pic.twitter.com/XeUkOBXE3k</a></p>— Ed Küpfer (@EdKupfer) <a href="https://twitter.com/EdKupfer/status/680476303150215169">December 25, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
If these 3 guys are necessary, we don't have a chance IMO. How many players qualify to fit these descriptions (can you share who?)? Which of these players are available? Who the heck can we trade to meet those teams' needs? And then how many new holes will trading these players create? Thanks.
I'm posting some trade ideas in random trades thread. Don't really want to do that here. But... 1. I think acquiring that critical big may be easier than what you think and it may be an outright signing. 2. I'm not ruling out acquiring a third superstar at the deadline. 3. I think Ariza could be moved. (Not saying he will.) Reasons? a.) Everybody needs a SF and we could sell high on him right now.; b.) Brewer may have played himself into a negative trade value hole.; c.) if we acquire that true dominant rim protecting, rebounding big, that will give us 48 minutes of paint lock down along with Capela now roaming around at the 4 along with DMo. Having more perimeter offense may be a good thing and we might not miss Ariza as much as we think we'd miss him. Just my thoughts here. I'm definitely not advocating moving Ariza. I understand his value. But I can see the possibility of an Ariza trade developing if things on this team continue to percolate as they are now.
I read through 4 pages of that Random Trades thread and just found an exhaustive debate over Mr. Snell. Boy, would he move the needle. It would be much easier for me if you just posted a cliffs notes in a post in here.
