Paging Bima: The Josh Smith Contract

I don't see why these two, considering their age, would do us any favors unless there's some sort of behind the scenes wink-wink agreement involving a future payout when the salary cap goes up. I'm bracing myself to lose both.

 

I could easily see Smith giving us a 3 to 4 million discount. He was miserable is Detroit, and I don't think he would like to repeat that in another bad situation

Brewer is gonna want to get paid though. I see no reason to expect one from him.

 

Don't we have early bird rights to Brewer, which means we could go over the cap to pay him as much as 170% of his current salary? Is a team really going to offer Brewer over $8 million a year? Also, Brewer seems to really like playing for McHale and he seems comfortable in his role here. I don't think it will be hard to retain Brewer in my opinion.

 

Please don't speak for everybody. You (and a lot of people) might be swayed by mo money, but that doesn't mean we all are.

-Dirk

 

justtxyank, while I get that you want to compare "apples to apples" by lining up 5-year deals with one another, the salary shifts may be more complex than that.

For instance, if Smith signs a one-year deal (or, more likely, a two-year deal with a second year player option), he can then re-sign in 2016 either (a) using Early Bird rights or (b) with cap room (which the Rockets--and nearly every other team--is likely to have that summer).

This scenario (which I'm not saying is LIKELY, just that it is FEASIBLE) could play out as follows:

--This summer, Smith signs a two-year deal using his Non-Bird rights and paying him $2,492,400 in Year 1 and a player option Year 2 paying him $2,604,558 (representing the maximum 4.5% raise over Year 1). Smith would almost assuredly opt out in 2016 but would have this extra security in case he blew out his knee or something.

--Once Smith opts out in 2016, he could be signed using Early Bird rights to a two-year deal (Early Bird deals must be at least two years long) paying him the "Estimated Average Salary" in Year 1, with a 7.5% raise in Year 2. Assuming normal growth in BRI (before the new TV money kicks in), we'd be looking at salary figures of about $6.15 million in Year 1 and $6.6 million in Year 2. (If the parties wanted the deal to go 3 or 4 years instead, just factor in up to 7.5% raises going forward.)

--OR . . . in lieu of using Early Bird rights, the Rockets could just sign Smith to a multi-year deal in 2016 using any available cap room.

--FWIW, the Early Bird route would be preferable for the Rockets from a team-building standpoint, since Smith's cap hold in 2016 would only be a mere $3,240,120 (130% of his prior year's salary). This would allow the Rockets to use their cap room (minus this amount and any other cap holds, such as D-Mo's or Jones's) first, then to exceed the cap to re-sign Smith to the Early Bird deal described above.

 

Since I'm too lazy to do it myself, try running the numbers on a combined Non-Bird/Early Bird scenario with the following figures:

2015-16: $2,492,400
2016-17: $6,150,000
2017-18: $6,611,250

If there really is a "wink-wink" deal between Smith and the Rockets for Smith to take a deep discount but with promised longer-term financial outlay, that scenario would be among the more likely ones.

 

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We need to do whatever possible to resign brewer and smith. Morey shouldn't worry about having cap space for durant, we could sign and trade ariza and others if durant wanted to come.

OKC would probably value having veterans instead of young guys and picks because they will have to get westbrook and ibaka to resign the following summer

 

I definitely want to keep smith . I think it is likely that he would consider a smaller 1-2 year deal here and then go out into the market when the cap rises in 2016.

Brewer we need to keep and for the long haul . Give him 3+ years . After one more season we will know the health situation of Howard more fully as well as have to consider DMO and Smith's respective growths and salaries . Capela should be ready to play 2 years from now and it is possible that he could be ready next season . If he is , then I would consider letting smith move on unless we get him for an absolute steal .

Obviously our team's performance and growth over these last months and into the playoffs will ultimately determine who is the most pivotal to keep and who we can afford to let go .

 

If Josh Smith manages to get a 3 year/$30M deal this summer, then the Rockets might as well wait for KD in 2016, because that means the market has gone completely insane.

Remember, this is a guy who had 2 years/$27M remaining, and was untradeable unless Detroit's first round pick was attached to him less than two months ago, and now some team is going to blow cap room on him for basically the same salary, with an additional year tacked on? He's played well, but not that well.

I would think that his top offer would be a full non-taxpayer midlevel from the usual big market teams that were interested after the buyout.

The numbers would then get quite a bit closer, when you're comparing a 4-year, $23M full-nontaxpayer midlevel taken in the summer of 2015, vs a Rockets offer that would be 1-year, $2.492M in 2015 + 3-year early bird for $19.83M in 2016, which would result in a difference of only about 400k after setoff, without discounting the time value of the money.

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on him being back, and I don't think he'll be the only rotation guy leaving.

 

Watch out for the Dallasholes making an offer after Rondo leaves.

 

All of these posts focus on the gross contract value. What happens when you take a look at the net? "It's not what you make, it's what you keep." Of course, he could sign with the Spurs, Mavs, Magic or Heat and still get the same income tax benefit.

 

Yeah that should play a part, too, but luckily 3 of those 4 will have only MLE and the fourth wouldn't sign him. So the Rockets will have some income tax advantage on top of the Board connection.

 

Dorsey won't see playing time, dmo can move to center when d12 needs a break.