I would guess maybe 1 team goes 33-19 a year after deadline. It isn't usually a .500 team or less, but let's say Astros are as likely as anyone to do it. That's about a 3% chance to make playoffs.
While this is true, it is possible the Astros don’t even need to have a good shot to make the playoffs to make such a move. It would be a big step just to be in the discussion for the sake of PR and team morale. Suppose with a big trade, the Astros are likely to finish somewhere within 7~3 games of 2nd WC place. That means our games may be relevant until the last 2 weeks. That has some value even if it’s a longshot just to show the public they’re dedicated to winning and building for the next season in terms of season ticket sales. I personally don’t think we’re a .500 team, but suppose we are a non-fluky (meaning it’s not just significant luck in 1-run wins) average team, I think going forward would be nice.
The "more to it" is simply a matter of the media not liking the team. Just look at how badly Morey was blasted the entire offseason for being terrible. No player will sign with us. No GM will trade with us. Everyone will be out to screw us because Morey does things the wrong way. Result? Josh Smith signs with us over many other options. We've traded with Sacramento, Philly, and Minnesota since. Washington agreed to S&T Ariza to us so we could preserve the MLE and TE. And Boston would've traded Rondo to us if we were willing to beat Dallas' price. And none of our new players complained about how Morey doesn't treat people right. People read too much between the lines. In the end, the Astros have been a terrible team so of course players would feel more of a sense of entitlement when dealing with the Astros than the champs.
From the date of that newspaper article to the trade deadline the 2005 Astros went 38-16 for a .700 winning percentage. It is totally not crazy to think a team could play .622 ball for 52 games and pick up 6 games in the standings.
The A's did the same thing in the AL. KC was a near .500 team last year (3 games over), went to the WS. It happens. Each season is different, but you are frequently in contention at .500 in July. I agree you aren't likely to make the playoffs, but you do have a reasonable shot, especially making in season improvements to the team. We were 50-57 in 2008, but got to 86 wins.
You are correct that .500 on July 31 is not a good shot at the playoffs, but why is everyone neglecting 2004 when the Astros were at .500 on July 31?
Define reasonable in terms of a percentage. Astros will not buy a rental player with anyone of significant value to Astros over 2016-2018.
Hard to put a percentage on it. You'd have to look at so many teams, so many seasons, and if those teams made significant acquisitions. I don't think they'd trade anything significant for a 2 month rental, but could consider a move for a guy with another year remaining.
If the Astros have a reasonable shot and I'm thinking greater than 20%..maybe 10% depending on the deal, I think the Astros will limit their trades to guys that can contribute immediately, but are not only a rental guy.
Pretty sure The Beard is actually evan drellich. I could see his boner by reading his Tweets on Friday. It's a joke.
Pass. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>astros are among teams looking at free-agent starter kevin correia. houston seeks back-end SP.</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/559867822562889728">January 27, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Agreed, no interest in back end starters with no upside If a mid rotation type is available great, if not then go with what we got
Right And I'm not saying if you are .500 you have to be buyers, just don't sell off assets for prospects if you are in possible contention
Peacock is going to miss the start of the year with hip surgery. Appel is really the only one too push him out
The lineup 1-9 looks so bright and solid Castro C Singleton 1B Altuve 2B Valbuena 3B Lowrie SS Gattis LF Rasmus CF Springer RF Carter DH
The Stros being attached to every one of these dogsh!t 5th starter possibilities seems to speak volumes about his confidence in Straily opening the season as our 5th starter, is what I'm saying. And if he signs nobody, I'd bet that Straily is on an even playing field to compete for the 5th spot as every other starting pitcher that gets a training camp invite.
