Odd, I would see the difficult decision being whether or not the Astros should be sellers at the deadline in this situation. I don't see Astros sacrificing more than lottery tickets for a one-year rental. I could see Astros trading prospects fro a guy like Gattis with a few years of club control left.
This is all true - but I think they did it in such a way that there's no risk to player development. We know all the questionmarks are unlikely to succeed (Singleton, Marisnick, Matty D, Villar). But whichever do, we can fit them in the everyday lineup. That's the beauty of the multi-position players they signed. All the young guys still get a legitimate chance. Here's where I have an issue. We already 3 rotation spots completely locked down in Feldman, Keuchel, and McHugh; even if they struggle some, they've earned a full year to try to figure it out. Obie showed enough that he deserves an extended look to see if he continues to develop. So that only leaves one spot that we know we have to try out other guys and have available for Appel if he's ready later this year. I don't want those guys to only get a chance with spot starts or if there's a major injury. If we sign a Vogelsong-type and he sucks, no loss - he gets cut and we move on. He's not likely going to excel, so the alternative is that he's just OK. That's what I don't want - a decent-enough Ryan Vogelsong type playing just well enough to keep him in the lineup, and delay seeing if Straily or Appel any of the other guys can play. I'd much rather leave that spot completely open to give those guys extended looks. Otherwise, next year, we lose the Vogelsong type and go into the season with all those same question marks about the 5th spot. That seems counter-productive to me. This is the year we start getting answers as who's a long-term keeper and who might be a weak spot. We're doing it all over the offense and with much of our pitching staff (Keuchel, McHugh, Obie). But I'd like to use this year for the same for all the upcoming pitchers too. We're only going to be in the wildcard mix this year if we have lots of "hits" and few "misses" - I think the #5 SP spot should be part of that process.
And I'm OK with this in theory. But if the old guy sucks, then the signing was pointless. And if he's any good, I think it's tougher to bench him even when a prospect might be ready because you still don't know what to expect from the prospect. I think he'd be helpful in the case of an injury, but that's about it.
Sell whom? And to acquire what type of player? Guys like Castro and Feldman maybe, but otherwise everyone else is really cheap or in the first year of their contract. There's not really anything they're lacking in the way of unproven talent. Maybe another high-upside starter (who doesn't need one) or high-upside OF prospect but besides that every position has a solid starter (2B,SS,3B,LF,RF,CF,C, DH), unproven youngster (1B-Singleton, OF- Marisnick, Grossman,3B-Matty D, SS-Villar), or close prospect (SS-Correa, 3B-Moran, OF-Aplin, Santana).
Castro or Conger, Feldman, Gregorson, Neshak, Rasmus, Valbuena, Carter or Gattis or Singleton (if Singleton hits), and Lowrie are the guys the Astros will most likely see what they can get in a trade if they are out of the race or even maybe at .500. Astros will likely be trying to acquire players that will likely be in majors under club control in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Basically, young guys in the majors or prospects in AA or AAA.
Their chance is beating out a vet for a spot; I'm not even sure why that's such a big deal. If Strailly can't beat out Ryan Vogelsong for the 5th starter spot, he's probably not the missing link. As for Appel, ain't nothing holding him back if he's deemed ready. Again this is purely philosophical, but I think that's bad risk management to not at least put a vet in contention.
I just don't see it for most of those guys. Gregerson, Neshek, and Lowrie all signed decent-sized, multi-year free agency contracts to come to Houston. Trading any of them in year 1 would be a huge PR nightmare for future FA's. They've already had FA's turn down more money from them to sign elsewhere, I don't think they'd throw fuel on the fire. Maybe next year. Carter and Gattis both have 4 years of team control and even with a down year would still figure into 2016-2018. Plus Gattis would require a steep return given the outgoing package for him. Any Singleton deal is going to be low-sell scenario. Valbuena I expect to be on the roster until Moran starts his first game at 3B. Rasmus is obviously on the table because he's a highly paid rental player, but my hope is he finds his form and they extend him cheaply.
On Gregorson, Neshak, and Lowrie, they all signed deals likely knowing that signing with Astros was the likeliest way for them to make the most and pitch/play for a contender in second half of season. FA's weren't opposed to that last I checked. Astros are not opposed to a steep return for Gattis or Carter. On Singleton, if he hits...Astros aren't selling low. On Valbuena, Moran isn't that far away. Astros will likely try to keep him until then, but Astros can piece together the left side of IF for half a season with Lowrie, Gonzales, Villar if necessary.
While I disagree that we should be looking to trade guys, it would be shortsighted to not trade guys because we have an outside shot at a playoff birth. If we can get a great package that can help us for 5-6 years for a guy that will be gone soon you do that. I guess some of us just disagree on what our status is. I think we are still in the building process. This was always a 5 year plan with 2016 as the primary goal, and I don't think that plan should change just because we appear to be close. We should still be looking to evaluate guys that will help us from that 2016-2020 window of awesomeness we've been preparing for.
I should add that if we are clearly in the thick of the chase, with a legit team that plan can change.
This idea has been promulgated that good roster construction is to always go for the package with more years of team control and hypothetical upside. Not saying it's wrong, but it's just not a universal truth. Luhnow fed us this train of thought because it justified tearing down the remains of the Wade-era Astros and being historically crappy in the interim. It gave us fans comfort and a reason to be excited when you saw guys like Bud Norris and Jarred Cosart traded. If they trade Gattis, Carter, Tuve, or Springer this year in a package that doesn't return equivalent ML talent, I'm f'ckin done with them. We have plenty of prospects and team-controlled, upside guys.
They'll get good when they get better players... and Correa/Appel are a big part of that. If they don't pan out or never make it up, and the team continues to flounder, this whole front office will likely not be here in 2017+. I think the front office also realizes that they need to start salvaging baseball interest in this city NOW... yes, wins are part of that but so is having an organization that simply appears to be trying to win. The off-season moves, the manager changes, and the rising payroll all points to attempting to get respectable now... and if there's a valuable rental piece or two available for a team that's right in the middle of the hunt, they've got an obligation to go for it. Good thing is that the Cardinals typically did make that sort of move year after year.
That's all fine But what I'm saying is that if we are at .500 and have a shot at playoffs and decide to sell off for "future prospects"....then we will have been suckered in by the front office
I fully expect Astros to try hard to compete this year and it appears they are going that route. It also appears Astros are picking up or trying to pick up a lot of spare parts. If Astros aren't in thick of playoff race, they could be setup as one of few teams selling.
The second wild card spot in each league won 88 games. .500 ball at the trade deadline was 55 wins, so it'd take .622 ball the rest of the way to get to 88 wins. Tough but doable.
9 games over .500 at trade deadline is not close to .500 and they were definitely in race. Even then, the Astros were very lucky that year and they were in the weak NL.
