Revisiting some preseason predictions

Haymitch · Apr 15, 2014

Now that we know the Rockets will have 54 or 55 wins and will be 4th in the West, I thought it would be interesting to see if people's predictions came close to reality.

First, a couple of great posts by durvasa and meh. To better understand their arguments, their original posts should be read. Then I put some other things I found posted around August/September about how good the Rockets will be.

If y'all find any other predictions of how our season might play out, share them here.

durvasa's Projecting Wins using #NBARank
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=245493

durvasa said: ↑

The final standings predicted by these projections were:

    Conf TEAM Top12-WS   Conf   TEAM  Top12-WS
1   E    MIA    56.9       W     LAC    53.8
2   E    BRK    54.5       W     GSW    52.8
3   E    CHI    52.4       <font style="background:yellow;color:black">W     HOU    52.4</font>
4   E    IND    51.7       W     SAS    51.7
5   E    NYK    47.6       W     MEM    50.4
6   E    CLE    46.8       W     OKC    48.2
7   E    DET    39.5       W     MIN    47.3
8   E    BOS    39.1       W     DEN    47.3
9   E    WAS    38.2       W     POR    43.8
10  E    MIL    38.0       W     NOP    40.9
11  E    ATL    37.8       W     SAC    37.9
12  E    TOR    36.0       W     DAL    36.7
13  E    ORL    31.3       W     LAL    32.4
14  E    CHA    30.1       W     UTA    26.3
15  E    PHI    18.6       W     PHX    23.7
Click to expand...

meh's Prediction of 2014 win total based on team stats and history
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=242535

meh said: ↑

Sum things up: If we assume the Rockets have a 110.7 ORtg and 103.5DRtg, and only slightly slower pace because of Howard(say pace of 95), they'll have a point differential of +6.8.

Est. Pythagorean Win Total: 59 Wins

Wins of recent teams with near +6.8 point differential
2013 Spurs 59 wins +6.5
2013 Clippers 56 wins +6.4
2011 Lakers 57 wins +6.1
2011 Bulls 62 wins +7.3
2010 Cleveland 61 wins +6.5

My personal prediction: 58~60 wins with "some" injuries. 53~55 if Harden or Howard misses a chunk of time.
Click to expand...

ProBasketballTalk ranking the Rockets as "only 7th" on Power Rankings
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=242396

7. Rockets (45-37). This postseason’s big winners, they landed Dwight Howard and that makes them instant contenders. There are questions, like will Howard play to his pick-and-roll strengths (he fought against that in L.A.) and not just try to be a post up guy. I think this could be a growing together season for the Rockets with 2014-15 being the season they explode.
Click to expand...

ESPN Insider's 2013-2014 Houston Rockets forecast:
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=244972

On paper, the Rockets look like title contenders beginning this season, with a forecasted win range somewhere in the low- to mid-50s. Most of the improvement will come on the defensive end, where the Rockets ranked in the middle of the pack a season ago. Much of that is due to the addition of Howard of course, but don't underestimate the effect of having Asik around to anchor the second unit. The perimeter defense will be reliant upon Chandler Parsons developing on that end and perhaps on Beverley stealing some minutes from Lin. Whoever emerges on the perimeter, they now know the basket will be protected behind them at all times.

The offense should again easily rank in the league's top 10. The Rockets already did a great job of spacing the floor and getting high-efficiency shots. In Howard, they now have someone who can compress the defense from the post in the same way Harden does off penetration. While Harden is effective kicking the ball out while driving, Howard is adept at finding cutters when double-teamed. An already outstanding offense just got more versatile.

Projection: 54-28, 2nd in Southwest Div., 3rd in Western Conf.
Click to expand...

USA Today: Rockets 4th most watchable
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=244652

WHY YOU CAN'T MISS THEM

A recharged Superman: Although he had a solid statistical season with the Lakers, Howard wasn't really himself last season as he recovered from a 2012 back surgery. Now, he says he's fully healthy and happier in Houston. If he can get back to the player who terrorized opposing scorers in 2011, the rest of the league has a problem.

A dynamic backcourt: Last season, there were questions about Harden's ability to function as the focal point of an offense coming off his sixth-man role with the Oklahoma City Thunder. He put those doubts to rest quickly, showing he can play alongside Jeremy Lin. Both of them should be terrific pick-and-roll partners for Howard.

Intriguing youth: With Parsons, Motiejunas, Greg Smith, Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverley, the Rockets have lots of young talent that should prove formidable once given more minutes. Parsons has already firmly established himself as a capable starter and Beverley played solid minutes at point guard last season when Lin was hurt. The two big-man prospects have boundless potential and could make Houston a very exciting team beyond just the superstars.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...nkings-houston-rockets-dwight-howard/2898287/
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A_3PO's Who Will Be the Rockets MVP this Season?
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=244569

After 346 votes:

Harden 45%
Dwight 29%
Lin 22%
Parsons 2%

Kevin Pelton's "West's best"
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=242216

1. OKC
2. SAS
3. HOU
4. LAC
5. MEM
6. GSW
7. DEN
8. MIN

"Having added Dwight Howard -- unquestionably the best center in the league as recently as two years ago -- without surrendering any key pieces, the Rockets are clearly the biggest movers in the West. Howard and James Harden give Houston a core that can compete with anyone.

There are still some issues around the edges, particularly at power forward. Kevin McHale will have to determine whether Omer Asik can play with Howard or if youngsters Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas are ready to step into larger roles. If they prove capable, the Rockets could move even higher."
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RV6 · Apr 15, 2014

Prediction from May 2013, 4 pages into the thread:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7933143&postcount=70

BigMaloe said: ↑

Beverly
Harden
Parsons
T.Jones
Dwight
Click to expand...

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Revisiting some preseason predictions

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