Opting in would be a terrible business decision for him. If you think he can only get $10m on the open market this offseason, how much do you think he could possibly get next offseason? There is some chance he has some kind of renaissance next season and increases his value, but the odds are against him. He's better off taking a 4-year deal that will pay him $50m+ than opting in for next season and then hoping the market is better a year from now. He still faces the risk of serious injury. And, right now there are some questions about his effectiveness but he has the dysfunction of the team as a smokescreen. If he does another season like this one, the doubts about him will be confirmed. Besides value, Morey already tried and failed at trading him. If he's only worth $10m (which honestly I think is low) but paid $22m, who will trade for him? They'd only trade deadweight, which Morey likely won't accept. So, he'd either suffer another miserable season with us, or get bought out at a fraction of his contract. And, if Morey did find a taker in a trade, who will it be? Howard will have no say in who he plays next season with. It might be as big a waste of time as staying in Houston. For myriad reasons, Howard is much better off opting out.
what are the timelines/deadlines on his decision? When does he have to decide on the option by? and when does FA start? I'm trying to figure out how much time he'll have to shop around and openly test the market before having to decide on the option.
My guess is that he has to decide by July 31 - that's when FA opens up. He cant "test" the market until he officially opts out. Otherwise, he's under contract and teams cannot approach/contact him and vice versa.
Because even when declining hes better than other players those teams can get and to get him for those two years you have to offer a 4 year contract. Not every team is Houston with its nice weather no taxes superstar on the roster that gets to sit with all stars every free agency to try to lure them. Many small market teams are turned down before they even get to sit with players to offer them their money. For example the biggest free agent acquisition for charlotte has been Al jefferson and for Milwaukee Greg Monroe.
So, you think he can get $13-14M per for 3 years right now, but he couldn't (even if a little injury prone) get $10M per for 2 years in the year which the cap increases drastically? ($23M this year + $10Mx2) Not buying that logic. If you think he can get $x this year, assuming he doesn't have a MAJOR injury, you have to assume he can get at least $x when the cap jumps.
Honestly, even though I fault him for not trying harder and dealing with adversity like a grown-up, if you put him in a system where can actually utilize his skills better (get more than 10 touches, and get them further in than just below the 3 point line, and with more than 10 seconds left on the clock), I think he could easily get back to 20/10. You can argue his shooting percentage this year was high b/c of the alley oops, but he'll get those to some degree in most systems + he can get better spacing and distance than this year.
It's not about getting 23 m sown where else, it's about the years. He wants a long term contract because it's likely his last. Opting in means risking that he falls even further from grace and finds it that much more difficult next season finding a deal. Still, I think Howard opts in and trusts that he can come back strong next season. Getting rid of him and replacing him with Capela doesn't make this team any better. Having a system that can utilize both Howard and Harden's respective skill set should be the focus. Then add one more star and some better role players.
That's the kicker. It's a huge risk. Some have suggested that KD take his option or sign a 1 year deal just to be able to get to the next year for even more cap space. But even for him that'd be a huge risk when he could sign a long term contract right now. Could Dwight stand to gain even more if he opted in, perform well next year, and hit FA when he cap increases even more next year? Yes, But that's a lot of if's riding on him doing better with this team next season and him not getting injured. I think it's a poor business decision to turn down guaranteed money when you're as old of a player like Dwight. KJ McDaniels pulled a high risk move to bet on himself but he's young and can do that.
Dwight opting in isn't the end of the world. We can immediately trade him and there will be at least 1 stupid team out there Morey can exploit.
yeah, it wouldn't make sense for him to opt in, but even if he does we can just get rid of him by other means
Also keep in mind there's a crap load or cap space this offseason and only a finite number of FA's. The shift in economics make pretty much every current nba contract lesser compared to what can be signed for from now on.
Let him opt out, the other teams who are willing to pay him will look like absolute fools. No post moves, poor free throw shooting, declining defense, and people think that should net you 20+ million a year? By all means, destroy your franchise and offer him that contract.
This isn't difficult. He's not opting in. He'll get one last big contract It doesn't have to be 23m annually to be worth it
I'm starting think that players can get away with pushing, grabbing, and holding Dwight because he and the entire league as a whole know he don't deserve his contract. Low baskeball IQ combined with declining athletic ability. Sure he'll grab so man rebounds per a game and maybe score over 10 but he won't be able to make a crucial defensive play or create on offense in close games or crucial games in general. Just a stat padder at this point...
Another reason that Durant would benefit from opting in is that one more year makes him a 10 year vet, allowing his max contract as a percentage of the cap to jump up a tier. I forget how much, about 10mil per year, I think.
