As always, MLB's international signing period will begin on July 2. The Astros already have an agreement in place to sign Cuban SS Anibal Sierra; Ben Badler of Baseball America reports that the deal is expected to be in the $3 million range. Sierra's bonus, which will be applied to this signing period, far exceeds the $2,197,000 allotted to the Astros in this IFA signing period, which means that for the next two IFA signing periods, they will only be able to sign players for a maximum of $300,000. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Giant new international signing preview is up. Top prospects, where they're signing and all the latest July 2 buzz: <a href="https://t.co/CJLJmrx0K4">https://t.co/CJLJmrx0K4</a></p>— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/737642911878107139">May 31, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Badler mentions that the Astros are expected to blow past their bonus pool this year, and much of that is being allocated to Sierra. I would probably expect the Astros to trade some minor leaguers for some international bonus slots. Here are some of the prospects that are being linked to the Astros: Spoiler In addition, the Astros may possibly be in the running for Dominican SS Freudis Nova (can't embed video of him), one of the top players in the entire class. Nova had been linked to the Marlins and was possibly in line for a $2.5 million bonus, but he tested positive for anabolic steroids in February, which prompted the Marlins to back off. Now, his situation has become a lot murkier. Spoiler
I see the Astros strategy...get all the young SS in our system so the other clubs have to trade us players we need
Badler mentions that the Astros are expected to blow past their bonus pool this year, and much of that is being allocated to Sierra. I would probably expect the Astros to trade some minor leaguers for some international bonus slots. Is there is any penalty difference for being $1 over or $10 million over?
The CBA lays out penalties for teams that exceed their allotted bonus pool amounts: 0-5% overage: MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. 5-10% overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $500,000 during the following international signing period. 10-15% overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $300,000 during the following international signing period. 15%+ overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $300,000 during the following two international signing periods. http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/viva-el...a-primer-on-international-amateur-free-agency
If they're going to go over they might as well break the bank. Sierra, Nova, and Cueta would be a great haul, especially if supplemented with 3-4 mid-six figure guys. A normal cycle for a contending team in the current system would add 1 elite international prospect and 2-3 other decent prospects that get six figures. To get twice that would be akin to what Houston did in the last Rule 4 draft, netting 3 of the top 15 prospects overall. If the CBA keeps free agent draft pick compensation in play Houston has set themselves up to keep a very healthy pipeline, with potential comp picks coming for Castro, Gomez, and Fister. That, along with the likelihood of an international draft that might alleviate the downside of the penalty incurred for going over their pool, might be playing into Houston's strategy to go way over their pool this year.
Does this mention the Astros getting Nova? I heard we might be in on him. We are already going over the limit, might as well http://www.baseballamerica.com/inte...merges-to-sign-july-2-shortstop-freudis-nova/
Freudis Nova #5, Yorbin Ceuta #11 <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Baseball America’s rankings of the top 30 international prospects for July 2: <a href="https://t.co/IwAb6CYPLg">https://t.co/IwAb6CYPLg</a></p>— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/747432784164233216">June 27, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
awesome. Definitely hope they break the bank this year and go all out if they're exceeding either way. Unless they think they can trade for enough slots to not exceed at all
Absolutely love Nova's build and swing in that video on the BA link. Only 2 minutes but looks like a player. Cueta's video was more of a hype video and included a lot of (unimpressive) fielding, so not as excited about him.
The Astros are the favorites for Ceuta. I don't usually mind typos, but when something's been spelled out and it's still being misspelled, that grinds my gears a little.
Last I saw these were the significant names Houston is expected to sign: $1M+ bonus: IF Anibal Sierra IF Freudis Nova IF Yorbin Cueta $300k-$1M bonus: RHP Angel Macuare RHP Jairo Solis C Nerio Rodriguez IF Deury Carrasco
Why isn't Anibal Sierra ranked in any of these top-30 lists? If he's not an elite prospect, then why are the Astros going to be paying him so much money?
Astros Will Break International Bonus Pool, Agree To Sign Cuban SS Anibal Sierra April 09, 2016 By Ben Badler Add the Astros into the mix of teams planning to go beyond their international bonus pools this year. The team has an agreement in place with 22-year-old Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra, a free agent who is subject to the bonus pools, to sign for $3.5 million on July 2 when the 2016-17 signing period begins. With a 100 percent overage tax for exceeding their pool, the total cost to the Astros to sign Sierra will essentially be $7 million. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas first reported the agreement. It’s surprising that the Astros would be willing to break their bonus pool to sign Sierra, who was not a standout player in Cuba. Sierra didn’t play much in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, but from watching him play there during his final season (2014-15), he didn’t have any tools that stood out, with below-average speed and occasional gap power at best. He did use the opposite field, but he had trouble making contact against fastballs in the strike zone and a tendency to chase sliders off the plate. Undoubtedly, the Astros saw something different in Sierra. Those who have seen Sierra since he left the country say his tools have ticked up, including his speed and power. Scouts who liked Sierra felt he was a true shortstop with soft hands and a good internal clock with a solid arm to stick at the position, with a line-drive, contact-oriented approach from the right side of the plate and some surprising power given his numbers in Cuba. <hr/> Anibal Sierra does not appear to be a can't miss player. Go figure.
Oversimplified, but he's going to cost the Astros about 7 million dollars in bonus and overage fees. That cost is less than what 1 win is worth on the free agent market. In other words, his contract represents what one should expect for a player that's average expected value will be about half of Marwin Gonzalez's.
BA added 20 more names to their rankings today and three players expected to sign with the Astros are listed. 40. Angel Macuare RHP 43. Nerio Rodriguez C 46. Deurys Carrasco SS
Here's Ben Badler's forecast for the Houston Astros. The new IFA signing period starts Saturday. The entire article is here as well, but since this is an Astros sub-forum that is part of a Houston Rockets forum, only the Astros' part will probably be relevant here...