2015 and beyond: The Talent?

Cush is gone. Not sure if we can cut JJo with his new deal starting up. May be in a Cushing type situation where we have to keep him another year for cap reasons.

 

We should be looking at trades and amassing draft picks.

Don't sign any pricey free agents, need to maintain flexibility.

Try to draft well.

Of course all this requires a brand new front office.

 

Sign guys to extensions and release them the next year - so Texanish.

ILB & CB - they just drafted Bernardrick McKinney & Kevin Johnson.
Wilfork - Ed Reed'd again? SMH.

 

WR- Shorts and Washington
RB- Polk

Worth it? Probably not

 

Jaelen Strong will be our #2 receiver next year. So much talent.

 

Really? Bruh?

 

Shorts & Washington are part of the 'best WR core' this franchise has ever seen so maybe they can stick around.

RB - After Arian, it's a bunch of JAG. You don't need a star there, as most teams use a committee of some sort but at the same time, Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk, Kenny Hilliard aren't striking fear in anyone.

I understand wanting to move on from Arian. Like many others on the roster, you're not getting back what you're paying him and can't count on him to stay healthy. See McNair's comments when he got hurt. (Paraphrasing) We weren't surprised, he's had these soft tissue injuries before.

For whoever they release, hope they have a good backup plan.

 

drafted McKinney, and Kevin Johnson

so releasing Cush and JJo is possible

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/

according to this, Cushing is actually our THIRD highest paid player.

JJo #9.

should cut Garrett Graham too since he's not doing jack for us.

anyways, we're gonna have a lot of cap space after this season.

 

Another great Texans move.

Re-signed Graham
Drafted Fiedorowicz in the 3rd round
Texans offense does not use the tight ends at all.

Don't tell me they don't use the tight ends because they suck.

Then why did they re-sign Graham and draft C.J.?

 

We only save 2.2 million on the cap and carry 6.8 million in dead money by cutting Cushing…so I don't really see much benefit to that, unless you find the team is better off with him completely off the field.

 

The fact that some people on here still defend Rick Smith is one of the more hilarious aspects in all of Clutchfans

 

He shares the blame, sure…but his role isn't really GM in the traditional sense. Our coaches have as much, or more, of a role in choosing the personnel. OB has shaped this roster to his liking.

So, although Smith is a useless figure within the organization, plenty of poor decisions have been made that aren't his fault.

The issues all start with ownership. Unfortunately, that won't change, so it'll always be an uphill battle with this franchise.

 

This will probably end up being a multiple post piece, hitting on a different subject with each one.

First I'll discuss the salary cap and suggested player cuts and the hit the Texans will take if they go that route.

With the esimtated salary cap being roughly $150mil for 2016, the Texans currently have an estimated cap space amount of $23.8mil

Based on your cuts I give you this;

Arian is still Arian, whether they decide a rebuild is necessary or they feel like they can come back next year and actually compete for the postseason is the determining factor. If they want to win, they need Foster. If they want to take their lumps with going young with a rookie QB and maybe a rookie RB, then Foster is gone. But they currently don't have a replacement for him, no one on this team is RB1 talented.

Arian only has a $2.5mil dead cap hit if cut. A savings of $6.8mil.

As far as Cush goes, I'm not sure if it's him being bad or the middle of our D-line not performing an allowing blockers to the 2nd level. Wilfork and Crick have been atrocious this year. He definitely isn't Cush of old though, and that being said not worthy his salary.

If Cush is cut his dead cap hit will amount to $7.2mil. A savings of $1.85mil. McKinney is of the same mold as Cush and should be a respectable replacement once he shakes the rookie jitters, but there isn't another ILB on the team that's starter worthy. Mohamed is gone, and probably won't want to return due to how the Texans handled his injury. That $1.85mil savings isn't that big of a deal considering you don't have anyone else.

JJo has a dead cap hit of $4.5mil. A savings of $2.5mil. JJo has clearly lost a significant step this season, and re-signing prior to this year was a huge error on Rick Smith's part. The silver lining however was a large amount of guaranteed money was not apart of the extension, rather a pay for play contract. Cutting him would make the Texans FO look like fools, but it's also necessary. Kevin Johnson will be ready for outside CB starts at some point this year. However, Kareem Jackson has been moving a lot to safety this year, and he would actually benefit from that move. He's weakness is playing with his back to the QB, and if he's facing players with a down hill prospective, he could definitely be a highly skilled safety. Which would leave you a hole at CB2, and I don't know if that guy is on the roster. Seems like everyone has taken step back this year.

I have no doubt that Wilfork will not be back next year. He's been an utter disappointment. He has a dead cap hit of $1.5mil if released, which saves $4mil.

Another guy not worth his salary cap is Whitney Mercilus, but his dead cap hit is significant at $8.7mil. The guy has never played like a 1st round draft pick, his talent level is of a backup rotational OLB. They paid him the lower level OLB salary for a starter, and it's still an exaggerated overpayment. Then again, besides Clowney and Merci you've got nobody. Simon has been just as invisible, and has a minimal cap hit. Stays due to depth issues and a high dead cap hit is my guess.

Those are your predominant salary cap hits from players that are under performing or are past their prime.

There really isn't a lot of money invested throughout the roster. Your big money makers are Watt, Brown, Foster, Cush, Kareem, Joseph, Clowney, Mercilus, Netwon, Wirlfork, Hoyer, Moore, and Graham. Those last few were roughly $5mil or less yearly salary. Not that significant.

If I were to add players to the possible cut list based on performance and their corresponding salary it would be;

Garrett Graham with a $750k dead cap hit, and a savings of $3.25mil. He was suppose to be OD light, and he's more like OD when he was injured and not on the field. He makes absolutely no impact, and whether that his fault of the QBs, I could care less. He doesn't offer you anything positive. Mistake to have extended him, considering he was already being listed as the 3rd TE on the roster behind Fido and Griffin it should be an easy cut.

Ryan Mallet has no dead cap hit if cut, and that should be a very easy move considering if they were to keep him he would be a $3mil hit on the cap.

Hoyer also has no dead cap hit, but I have a feeling OB wants his pet on the team whether they draft a rookie or not. Maybe he gets cut if Savage comes back next OTAs and takes at least the backup spot if we do indeed draft a QB next year. Then that would be a simple no issues cut, and a savings of $5.25 on the cap.

Shorts is a player that interests me, because I don't know how they see the WR depth. If you want to go young, you've got Hop WR1, Strong WR2, Mumphery WR3/Slot/Return, and Worthy as WR4/Slot/Returner. Do you keep him because of experience or let the young guys learn on the job? I would just go all in on your young guns, and take the savings. If cut Shorts has a dead cap hit of $500k, a savings of $3mil on the cap.

All in all if you were to cut non-essential players whether because they're still needed or you don't have anyone better, you get rid of JJo, Wilfork, Graham, Mallet, Hoyer, and Shorts. That would give you a cap savings of $21mil and would increase your estimated cap space to $44.8mil.

That can go up to a total of $53.45mil if you also release Foster and Cushing.

Thats quite a bit of cap space to have, which is key to re-signing your own FAs as well as trying to find some starters in FA to fill some voids.

You've got Ben Jones, Brandon Brooks, and Jared Crick as your main FAs who should be retained. Although Crick is having a slight down year, I think with Wilfork being a wiff it's hurting him more than the other guys. Jones is a starting center in this league, and Brooks is a good RG. Maybe you resign Lechler as well, considering how badly you could need him with this offense as is. That still isn't a ton of money. Signing those guys should probably account for around $12mil total, if you're generous maybe $15mil.

That could leave you with a potential cap space figure around $29.8mil - $38.45mil. That's if you're going all in on releasing the guys up above. I would be skeptical due to the Texans track record of riding things out until the very last moment.

 

Well that's good if we're not in cap hell.

That would give the next regime some flexibility

 

Players I have faith in moving forward

Hop
JJ
Kevin Johnson

 

What about cutting Brown?

 

I'll touch on the actual roster makeup as it is. Listing the core players on offense and defense, and the guys that are expendable.

Offense:

The main issue is quite obvious to everyone. The Texans simply don't have a QB, and if they want one they need to dry their hardest are losing out for the year. Your best bet is getting the 1st pick next year and drafting one. You will never find a franchise QB by singing other guy's castoffs. Savage is the only guy in my opinion worth keeping, and he may just end up being your backup.

Status - No QB on roster besides possible backup in Savage.

Your depth at offensive line is shaky. You've got solid starters at LT, C, RG, and RT. LT may work itself out by the end of the year with either Aboushi or Sua`Filo taking the position for themselves. So if you bet on LG working itself out, then you have a nice starting O-line.

Startings O-line - LT Brown, LG XSF/Oday, C Jones, RG Brookes, RT Newton
Backup O-line - LT Clark, LG XSF/ODay, C Mancz, RG XSF/Oday, RT Lamm

Of those backups, I would only trust whomever gets beat out of XSF/Oday and Mancz inside. Clark held his own with Duane out, and can probably be brought back cheap. He's not a starter any longer. Lamm made it because there simply wasn't anyone else. You need at least one other guy that can play Guard and Right Tackle.

Status - 5 Good Starters, 3 Possibly Good Backups - Still need 1-2 G/T for depth.

WR corp is unknown behind Hopkins who is showing that he is indeed definitely a true WR1. Mumphery has played nicely for his draft status, but only sparingly, with guys like Shorts and Washington ahead of him. Strong finally made it to the field this week and showed you what he can do in live action. Washington shouldn't be back next season, and whether they keep Shorts or not will determine what they do with the young guns. I'd let Mumph/Strong get more snaps ahead of Washington. You've got to let the guys actually play so you can find out if they're of any value or not.

Status - Hopkins #1, Young guns need time, but have potential. Stick with the young guns.

TE -

Spoiler

Graham should not be back. He hasn't performed in a long time, and was already the 3rd stringer before injuries got Griffin. Griffin shows promise, but QB is too inconsistent for him to grow. Better pass catcher than Fido, better blocker than Graham. Fido has shown he can catch, and is the best blocker of the bunch, but he still needs a lot of work. I'm sure both Fido and Griffin are back. You still need a TE though.

Status - 2 TEs on roster, but no production. QBs to blame?

The RB corp isn't strong behind Foster. With Foster getting up their in age and his continued injury issues I don't know if you keep him. When healthy he is still as dynamic as prior years, but how healthy can he stay? Blue has done quite well this season, but I'm not sure he can be a true RB1. His game averages are 11.4 carries a game for 45.2 yards. A 4 yard average per run. That would equate to about 182 carries for 723 yards over the course of the season. Can he keep that avg up with more carries? Not sure. But that is very good production from your RB2. Grimes is avg 3.9ypc and Polk 3.5ypc. Grimes is a good RB in space and playing the screen pass game/check downs but is used rarely and is of similar mold to Polk, which is redundant. Polk can catch, but fails when actually used as a RB behind the LOS. He's hesitant at the line, and has near zero burst when arriving their. As far as FB is concerned, Prosch is coming along nicely, and should be a positively graded player for the future.

Status - If Arian is staying and healthy he's great. Blue is a legit backup RB, but is he a RB1? Not much else. Need a high draft pick if you're starting over. I'd only keep Blue if you're rebuilding the RB corp.

Offensive Players I'd Keep;

QB - Savage
O-line - Brown, Jones, Brooks, Newton, Aboushi, XSF, Mancz, and Clark.
WR - Hopkins, Strong, Mumphery, Worthy
TE - CJ, Griffin
RB - Foster, Blue, Prosch. (If you keep Foster.)

That's 18 out of the current 25 offensive players I would keep currently on the roster.

 

I see no reason to cut Brown. Besides his thumb injury to start the season, he has been good. He may not be Duane from 2 or 3 years ago, but he is still a top 10 LT. Theres no way you move on from him when you have so many other needs to fill in the draft. He's also locked down for the next 3 years. Cutting him would save money since his dead cap hit is low, but he isn't one of the problems on offense. That would cause more issues than fix.