Welcome back. Which do you think would have more trade value this summer: A 14th pick (should we miss the playoffs), or a (let's say) top-5 protected 2013 1st round pick (should we make the playoffs)?
thx for clarifying BimaThug. Yeah, I was overstating the cap room part, because that is what people listen too the most. . I agree with wanting to keep the pick *if* we're talking a Top 10 pick here (real tanking)...but another #14 vs making the playoffs...meh. I don't understand the sentiment of purposely losing in April to secure a #14 pick vs the playoffs and all your pro/cons above. At this point, we might as well try hard to make it.
I think the 2nd and 3rd "pro" you have are good arguments, but the first isn't much. More than half the teams in the league "make the playoffs"... it's not the accomplishment that it is in baseball or football, and in the Eastern Conference it's basically a participation ribbon. Also, while I see value in removing the draft pick obligation for trade flexibility in the future, why not just offer the Nets the Knicks pick for your pick back? After all, if it's in the projected range you have it (15-17), it's basically the best New Jersey could eventually get, and they get it now. Obligation removed. In my opinion, it shouldn't determine or delay a rebuilding plan.
wrong. We had that last season but when the Knicks finished with a better draft position that obligation expired. We do own the Knicks pick providing its not a top 5 pick.
You and JayZ750 make the good point that has a pretty close analogy to "Money is worth more now than in the future." Draft picks are worth more now than the future. I'm solidly in the camp of playoffs are just funner than a #14 pick, plus the intangible value of BimaThug's points. But I could go both ways. What cements me in the playoff mode camp vs #14th pick is because of the quantity of rookie scale rotation players we have now. Motiejunas might require the most mpg of all of them (we hope), and we still need to develop Morris. Even if we got the pic, I'd probably favor trading it away. Or picking a Euro again and stashing him in Europe for a year or more.
I would think 14 and 15 would be similar value as 13, 18 and 23 which netted us the #7 pick once upon a time. There will be a lot of new faces on the team next season I think so I just don't see DM wanting 2 additional garunteed contracts.
The latter. Easily. THIS is the question people need to ask themselves when weighing "having the pick this year" versus "getting the obligation out of the way". Sure, all else equal, a pick THIS year is always worth more than the same pick in a future year. But a future pick that COULD be higher??? That, my friends, is like gold to NBA owners and general managers. For right or for wrong. In June 2010, which do you think would have fetched more? The Rockets' #14 pick in that draft? Or the top-5 protected 2012 Knicks pick? The Knicks' pick, hands down. Anyone saying otherwise is either lying to you or stupid (or both). Getting rid of the New Jersey pick obligation would allow Morey to offer such a future enticement to other teams, whereas he otherwise could offer far less in a mega trade package for a star. For an example of this, look no further than the New Jersey Nets themselves. They are putting together a trade package for Dwight Howard that features Brook Lopez and multiple picks. But the key piece to that package (perhaps almost as big or moreso than Lopez) is the Nets' unprotected 2012 first round pick. Even if the Nets make the pick top-5 protected, it's still a great trade asset. Sure, someone might be interested in trading for the Rockets' 2012 late lottery pick if they miss the playoffs, but (1) Morey has a small window during which to market and trade it; and (2) it does not possess that magical "what if" factor that NBA decision makers drool over (again, for right or for wrong). For these reasons, among many others, I think getting the #14 pick this season would be a worst case scenario. It would be MUCH better to make the playoffs, enjoy that experience (however brief), still have a nice pick in that same range (plus Motiejunas coming over), and then enter the 2012 offseason with more trade asset ammunition (draft pick-wise) than we have now.
I'm with Bima - let's go all out for making the playoffs this year and tank it up next year [if required] Even if we made 'the dreaded move' to get Gasol, it might well work out PROVIDED we can get rid of Martin and bring back 'optional' contracts [ie, the Philly deal]. To be quite honest, I almost like the sound of doing both of those deals together SIMPLY BECAUSE it means we have blown it all up, and can start again with a 'legit' big man, potentially a max FA, and 2 European "stars".
Agree - definitely worth more now than in the future, but I would think there are other factors that would come into play whether a team would want that pick now or later. Cap room/guaranteed contract as well as the depth of that draft are two things that come to mind. It would suck to still have that pick owed, especially since T-Will is almost for sure going to be wearing another team's jersey next season, but I think if Daryl really views it as a negative, he can get out of that obligation. As mentioned before, the NYK pick could do it... or does anyone think the Nets would not give back that pick owed for the 14th pick? And for me, the frustration doesn't come down to 14th pick (just missing playoffs) or no pick at all (8th seed) ... it's a ~7th pick (and better chance for a top 3 pick) vs. no pick at all, something that was eliminated by running with Scola, Martin and Dalembert in a season that could have started the rebuilding. I never count out Daryl Morey though and I'm hoping this trade deadline there will be a step towards real long-term help.
another Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris type player....looks like just another medicore mid 1st round pick
Can a team trade away back to back first round picks? If not - We can't trade the '12 pick - b/c we owe the Nets the '13 pick (if we miss the play-offs this year) and that would block the trade of the '14 pick, too. (What a miss - all for T-Will) MAYBE the Nets will just take the NYK pick. I was a pro-tanker till I read this thread, we need to make the play-offs just to make all of this go away.
The Rockets can trade their own 2012 pick (if they miss the playoffs), as long as New York doesnt get a top-5 pick, since they will still definitely have a 2012 pick. However, if New York miraculously gets a top-5 pick, then the Rockets can still trade their own 2012 pick, but only after the pick is made. In other words, a trade can be agreed to before or during the draft, but it can't be formally announced until after the pick is made. Aside from the Knicks' pick, the only Rockets future first round pick that Morey can trade right now is: "Houston's own first round pick in the First Allowable Draft, being the draft that is two years after Houston satisfies its obligation to send a first round pick to New Jersey in the trade involving Terrence Williams" Let's just call this the "Undesirable Future Pick" To summarize, for this upcoming offseason, the Rockets can offer other teams the following future first round pick assets over the next four drafts, respectively: If the Rockets MISS the playoffs this year: --2012 Rockets pick (#13-14 range) --2012 Knicks pick (#15-17 range) --The Undesirable Future Pick (coming in 2015 at the EARLIEST) If the Rockets MAKE the playoffs this year: --2012 Knicks pick (#15-17 range) --An unprotected 2013 pick --An unprotected 2014 pick (but not if 2013 pick is dealt) --An unprotected 2015 pick Guess which array of picks will get you more in trades this summer. Yeah, that's what I thought.
It's OK to be a pro-tanker before the season began. But you can't be a half-ass tanker. At this point, even if we purge Scola and Martin for yungins with potential and future picks, we might not make it down to the 10th pick without Coach seriously quitting and pissing off Lowry. We might as well try to trade for a star or trade neither or only one for youth/picks, go for the playoffs and regroup in the summer, when we can mix our assets with cap room for FA and SnTs. Anyhow, don't argue with that, it's my interpretation of Morey's plan right now. I'm trying to figure out his thinking, now that it's clear he didn't choose to tank (or be allowed to) and I don't think he'd agree with changing course midseason to attempt to tank now.
I'm not stuck on it, and root for the team to win every game. Can't help it. I intellectually would have preferred a tank, and still prefer to miss the playoffs, but I root for them to make it. Your point is about salary cap space. A #14-16 pick next year is clearly in no way more valuable than a #14-16 pick this year. I just contend that DM can figure out salary cap space. Pick a Euro. Trade the 2 picks for one. Outright give it to NJ this year instead of next in exchange for something else (a high 2nd rounder, perhaps?) I covet salary cap space for Dwight Howard and Deron Williams. Unfortunately I think there is a 0.0001% chance of landing either, much less both. I could care less if the extra $1.5 million of cap space keeps us from making a competitive offer to the following list of FA small forwards, for example (all other positions are equally crappy): Gerald Wallace, Portland Trail Blazers – $10.5 million – Player Option ($10.5 million) Nic Batum, Portland Trail Blazers – $2.2 million – Restricted ($3.2 million Qualifying Offer) Jeff Green, Boston Celtics – $4.5 million – Restricted ($7.2 million Qualifying Offer) Chase Budinger, Houston Rockets – $0.9 million – Team Option ($0.9 million) Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets – $2.1 million – Restricted ($3.1 million Qualifying Offer) Grant Hill, Phoenix Suns – $6.5 million – Unrestricted Sam Young, Memphis Grizzlies – $0.9 million – Unrestricted* Matt Barnes, L.A. Lakers – $1.9 million – Unrestricted Andres Nocioni, Philadelphia 76ers – $6.7 million – Team Option ($7.5 million) Anthony Tolliver, Minnesota Timberwolves – $2.1 million – Unrestricted Donte’ Greene, Sacramento Kings – $2.0 million – Restricted ($3.0 million Qualifying Offer) Bill Walker, New York Knicks – $0.9 million – Unrestricted Devin Ebanks, L.A. Lakers – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Dahntay Jones, Indiana Pacers – $2.7 million – Player Option ($2.9 million) Jeremy Evans, Utah Jazz – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Eduardo Najera, Charlotte Bobcats – $2.8 million – Unrestricted Derrick Brown, Charlotte Bobcats – $0.9 million – Unrestricted* Damien Wilkins, Detroit Pistons – $1.1 million – Unrestricted Dominic McGuire, Golden State Warriors – $0.9 million – Unrestricted Chris Wright, Golden State Warriors – $0.5 million – Unrestricted* Trey Thompkins, L.A. Clippers – $0.5 million – Unrestricted* DaJuan Summers, New Orleans Hornets – $0.8 million – Unrestricted Steve Novak, New York Knicks – $1.0 million – Unrestricted Rasual Butler, Toronto Raptors – $1.2 million – Unrestricted I'm not sure why it took Clutch to say basically exactly what I said for it to be a good point all of a sudden, but no worries. You get where we're coming from. I get where you're coming from. I will certainly root for them in the playoffs if the make it, and I think the difference in approaches is likely ultimately not extremely important to the big picture. Hopefully that big picture is more obvious by this time next week.
What if they're trading picks for picks? Meaning, can't the Rockets trade the 2012 Rockets pick for a 2013 first round pick and 2012 second round pick? And if they had that 2013 first round pick, then wouldn't they have the array of picks to trade in your second scenario? In the simplest scenario (maybe not likely, but simple to think about), couldn't they trade their pick this year, say the 2012 #14 pick, for the obligation they'd h ave to the Nets for next year and say the Nets 2nd round pick this year? The obligation is out of the way, and they have the exact same array of picks you described, PLUS the Nets 2nd rounder this year. So in the end, I'm valuing the Nets 2nd rounder this year as more valuable than losing in the 1st round of the playoffs... which I truly believe... because DM has been one of the best late round drafters I've frankly ever seen. Whether it's late first round or 2nd round, he has an uncanny ability to find solid role players.. and that's an asset I'd rather have then the experience of losing in the first round of the playoffs... AGAIN. I realize the Nets might not make such a deal, but just a hypothetical. I agree with your point generally, I'm just not as sold on it being as big a deal. The reason the Nets 2012 unprotected first round pick is a big asset in a potential Howard trade would be because it's really pretty likely that it will be a great pick. Is a 2013+ Rockets pick all that great? Presumably, the Rockets are making said trade to get better? And we know they are already borderline playoff team and have been consistently. In your scenario, they're not borderline playoffs, they have just made the playoffs. So then, assuming DM is willing to trade the pick unprotected, how valuable is it really. It is likely a non-lotto pick. Now I'll grant there is another scenario, which is, in spite of MAKING the playoffs this year - which would lead to the better array of picks - in the offseason Les and DM say let's just rebuild, by trading future picks for young assets, etc, etc. Why would DM trade unprotected lotto picks anyways in that scenario? He wouldn't. you rebuild with lotto picks, not by trading them away. Moreover, this scenario is completely unlikely. Les won't rebuild, apparently. He wants to reload. To be sure, I recognize having more assets to trade is better, though, and your array of picks is better. But I'd still rather risk that the ability to trade those arrays of picks means something more than I think it does (which you apparently think) to this team, with this owner, in order to maybe turn the #14,#15 into a #9 or #10 pick, or to pick another solid Euro to stash overseas with one of those picks, and to let DM do what he needs to do to continue to accumulate the right assets to make other moves - i.e. trade Scola for some package that nets a first rounder. Sure, we still wouldn't have the ability to trade a potentially solid 2013 first rounder, but we won't ever really have that, because the owner and GM are commited to not letting the team get any worse than the solidly average they already are....
we are just gonna trade all are first round picks and move back to the second round cuz we get better players there
I just meant to say that I can't argue with the tanking camp prior to the season. But the same philosophy doesn't make any sense at this point...so it's like "let it go; Morey went another route." btw: we've moved on from the cap room is the only issue. I was paraphrasing BimaThug and he corrected my description of his position. Neither of us it consider just a matter of $1.5m. It's a minor point. I gave you credit. I thought I was trying to respect both of you by summarizing your position succinctly in a catch phrase. It's all good.
