I realize the chances of making the playoffs are not likely, but I wanted to see how the other teams' schedules that are fighting for the last four spots looked (as well as ours). San Antonio, Dallas, Lakers and OKC are assured spots. That leaves seven teams fighting for the last four spots. Here are there current records as well as the number of road games and games remaining against current teams in the playoff chase. TEAM.................................RECORD......ROAD GMS.....VS PLAY TEAMS New Orleans.........................35-26........... 10.................18(!!!) Denver................................34-26............12..................13 Portland...............................33-26............11..................16 Memphis...............................33-28.............8..................15 Utah....................................32-28............11.................16 Phoenix................................30-27............14.................16 HOUSTON.............................30-31..............9.................13 That's 3 back from the 8th seed and five back from the fifth seed. Only Memphis plays less road games than we do and only Denver plays less teams in the playoff chase. Twenty-one games isn't a lot. But, it's more than a quarter of the season. And you only have to "make up" one game for every seven played to catch a team that's three games ahead of you. Not likely, but certainly not impossible. It makes the losses at home to Minnesota and Philadelphia recently hurt even more (not to mention the ridiculously close losses early in the season). I realize there are many on this board who would rather miss the playoffs - or "tank", as they LOVE to refer to it as. But, it's way too late in the season to do that in an attempt to try to obtain a better draft pick. It makes NO sense at all. None. If you wanted a top five pick, the plug should have been pulled forty or fifty games ago.
Nice post! We still have little margin for error. Not sure we have the roster to sneak in the playoffs righ tnow, although I'd love to eat some crow!
Wow we're not far from it at all. We have to hope that we continue this streak and that a couple of those teams slide. I think Phoneix is likely to slide but I don't think most ppl on this board want them to because of the pick. Utah will slide for sure. Memphis may slide with the absense of Gay but they still have Randolph to minimize the damage and keep them in the playoffs. I think it's completely possible to get into the playoffs at the 6-8 spots.
We have to win 45 games to make the playoffs. That means going 15-6 over the last 21 games. It will be difficult, but not impossible.
Damn that makes sound a little harder. 15-6!? I think realistically, they go 12-9. Which means they would barely miss the playoffs again
Yeah, I had 'em going 13-8 to finish 43-39. Hollinger has 'em going 12-9 also, finishing two games out at 42-40 (again). But, barring a three or four game losing streak, at least the majority of the remainder of the season should be interesting.
I completely agree with you, i think we'll make it in the playoffs if we continue to play like we have been. i think Pheonix, Memphis(due to their tough remaining schedule) and Utah will slide.
The only games remaining against good teams are Boston, SAx2, Dallas, Miami, and Atalanta. Also 5 pickems against NO, Phox2, Utah, Philly. 5 of 6 of those difficult games are at home. This playoff spot is the Rockets to lose imo.
The question is.... Did Morey help the Rockets chances at making the playoffs by dealing to Conference rivals or help their chance by making the trades with Memphis and Phoenix? I understand the moves were made with the future in mind, but its just crazy to think about. -Im pretty sure Memphis is better now since Thabeet wasn't even playing. Battier gives them better defense on the perimeter and veteran presence. -Phoenix... With the AB the Rockets have had all season long... they are worse off then with Dragon and lose a draft pick. With AB of last season.... they are a whole heck of alot better. So in conclusion, if Phoenix and Memphis get the 7th and 8th seed in the playoffs, then those picks, Thabeet, and Dragon better turn out to be Moses Malone and Hakeem Olajuwon of the twentyfirst century. Or else we will have witnessed the first bad move by Morey.
One of those weird things. If the playoffs were REALLY a goal, well, Morey was certainly in the running for Gerald Wallace. But teams that apple-cart their chemistry mid-season tend to slide in the playoff positioning. And Wallace being no guarantee of a postseason, seems Morey wanted to keep from taking on big money and even miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, Shane helps keep Memphis in it. If Memphis makes the playoffs, we get their 2013 pick (first round). Phoenix? Come on, Aaron, you can do it! Help us get that 2011 #15-18 pick.
BUT, on the flip side, maybe dealing with conference competitors was a calculated move by Morey. Remember the conditions placed on the 1st round pick from Phoenix. If Phoenix makes the playoffs, we take their pick. If they don't, we get Orlando's, which is likely a lot lower than Phoenix's draft pick. Perhaps Morey doesn't mind that Phoenix or Memphis got better in the short run.
Regardless of schedule, I think you can mark New Orleans down for a spot. They're still a strong team, and they're in the best position right now. Probably could do the same with Portland. Position is up in the air, but they're both probably going to make the playoffs. I'd say that we're really battling 4 other teams for two spots. You have to expect Utah and Denver to fall off, so I'd put it between the Rockets, Grizzlies, and Suns for the last two spots. With that it mind, I'd probably put the Rockets' chances at 35-40%. And considering the season, that's not horrible.
I prefer a playoff push than lottery since it will raise the value of our own players in any possible future trades to hopefully land an all-star plus the difference in selecting 13 to 16 isnt that much. But at least how I see it: Rockets Schedule: Code: March Opponent Tue 01 @ Portland L Wed 02 @ LA Clippers W Sat 05 vs Indiana W Mon 07 @ Sacramento W Tue 08 @ Phoenix W Sat 12 vs San Antonio L Mon 14 vs Phoenix W Wed 16 vs Charlotte W Fri 18 vs Boston L Sun 20 vs Utah W Wed 23 vs Golden St. W Sun 27 @ Miami L Tue 29 @ New Jersey W Wed 30 @ Philadelphia L April Opponent Fri 01 vs San Antonio L Sun 03 vs Atlanta L Tue 05 vs Sacramento W Wed 06 @ New Orleans W Sat 09 vs LA Clippers W Mon 11 vs Dallas L Wed 13 @ Minnesota W 13-8 to end the season 43-39 of course Best case scenario is that they pick up some Ws where its unexpected but that also means losing games when not expected (like minnesota/philly at home) those two games hurt big time the team would have been 32-19 and even a 13-8 finish then would have been 45-37 which could mean playoffs. Grizzlies Schedule Code: Tue 01 vs San Antonio L Fri 04 vs New Orleans W Sun 06 @ Dallas L Mon 07 vs Oklahoma L Wed 09 vs New York L Sat 12 @ Miami L Mon 14 vs LA Clippers W Thu 17 @ New York L Sat 19 vs Indiana W Mon 21 vs Utah W Wed 23 @ Boston L Fri 25 @ Chicago L Sun 27 vs San Antonio L Wed 30 vs Golden St W April Opponent Fri 01 @ New Orleans L Sat 02 vs Minnesota W Tue 05 vs LA Clippers W Fri 08 vs Sacramento W Sun 10 vs New Orleans W Tue 12 @ Portland L Wed 13 @ LA Clippers W That would mean the Grizzlies would go 10-11 which would be 43-39 (same as a projected Rockets record) and the Rockets should win the tiebreaker vs Memphis. Phoenix Schedule Code: February Opponent Mon 28 @ New Jersey W March Opponent Wed 02 @ Boston L Fri 04 @ Milwaukee L Sun 06 @ Oklahoma L Tue 08 vs Houston L Thu 10 vs Denver W Sun 13 vs Orlando L Mon 14 @ Houston L Wed 16 @ New Orleans L Fri 18 vs Golden St W Sun 20 @ LA Clippers W Tue 22 @ LA Lakers L Wed 23 vs Toronto W Fri 25 vs New Orleans W Sun 27 vs Dallas L Tue 29 @ Sacramento W Wed 30 vs Oklahoma L April Opponent Fri 01 vs LA Clippers W Sun 03 @ San Antonio L Tue 05 @ Chicago L Wed 06 @ Minnesota W Fri 08 @ New Orleans L Sun 10 @ Dallas L Mon 11 vs Minnesota W Wed 13 vs San Antonio W This would have Phoenix closing the season out 11-14 and a final record of 41-41 Denver Schedule Code: Mon 28 vs Atlanta L March Opponent Wed 02 vs Charlotte W Thu 03 @ Utah W Sat 05 @ LA Clippers W Thu 10 @ Phoenix L Sat 12 vs Detroit W Mon 14 @ New Orleans L Wed 16 @ Atlanta L Fri 18 @ Orlando L Sat 19 @ Miami L Mon 21 vs Toronto W Wed 23 vs San Antonio L Fri 25 vs Washington W Wed 30 vs Sacramento W April Opponent Fri 01 @ Sacramento W Sun 03 @ LA Lakers L Tue 05 vs Oklahoma L Wed 06 @ Dallas L Fri 08 @ Oklahoma L Sat 09 vs Minnesota W Mon 11 vs Golden St W Wed 13 @ Utah L Denver is the trickiest team to peg on how they would do because of their huge shakeup. They have been impressive lately riding an emotional high but I would expect them to come back down and close 10-12 for the season. A final record of 44-38. Portland Code: March Opponent Tue 01 vs Houston W Wed 02 @ Sacramento W Sat 05 vs Charlotte W Mon 07 @ Orlando L Tue 08 @ Miami L Fri 11 @ Charlotte W Sat 12 @ Atlanta W Tue 15 vs Dallas L Thu 17 vs Cleveland W Sat 19 vs Philadelphia W Sun 20 @ LA Lakers L Tue 22 vs Washington W Fri 25 vs San Antonio W Sun 27 @ Oklahoma L Mon 28 @ San Antonio L Wed 30 @ New Orleans L April Opponent Fri 01 vs Oklahoma W Sun 03 vs Dallas L Tue 05 vs Golden St W Thu 07 @ Utah W Fri 08 vs LA Lakers W Tue 12 vs Memphis W Wed 13 @ Golden St L The Blazers actually got better after the deadline and with 23 games left i expect them to go 14-9 for a final record of 47-35 Hornets Schedule Code: March Opponent Tue 01 @ Toronto W Wed 02 @ New York L Fri 04 @ Memphis L Sun 06 @ Cleveland W Mon 07 @ Chicago L Wed 09 vs Dallas L Sat 12 vs Sacramento W Mon 14 vs Denver W Wed 16 vs Phoenix W Sat 19 vs Boston L Thu 24 @ Utah L Fri 25 @ Phoenix L Sun 27 @ LA Lakers L Wed 30 vs Portland W April Opponent Fri 01 vs Memphis W Sun 03 vs Indiana W Wed 06 vs Houston L Fri 08 vs Phoenix W Sun 10 @ Memphis L Mon 11 vs Utah W Wed 13 @ Dallas L With 21 games left I give the Hornets a good shot at finishing 10-11 for the season with a final record of 45-37. Utah Code: Mon 28 vs Boston L March Opponent Thu 03 vs Denver L Sat 05 vs Sacramento W Mon 07 @ New York L Wed 09 @ Toronto W Fri 11 @ Minnesota W Sat 12 @ Chicago L Mon 14 vs Philadelphia W Wed 16 vs Minnesota W Sun 20 @ Houston L Mon 21 @ Memphis L Wed 23 @ Oklahoma L Thu 24 vs New Orleans W Sat 26 vs Dallas L Mon 28 vs Washington W April Opponent Fri 01 vs LA Lakers L Sun 03 @ Sacramento W Tue 05 @ LA Lakers L Thu 07 vs Portland L Sat 09 @ San Antonio L Mon 11 @ New Orleans L Wed 13 vs Denver W Losing Williams will hurt just as much as losing Sloan so I think the Jazz will finish 9-13 to close the season with a final record of 41-41 NOW All of these are my guesstimations on how games will play out. There will be some games that teams may win that they shouldnt on paper and of course other games where they lose when they shouldnt. Given my above guesstimations here is how the final standings would look like: Code: Portland 47-35 Hornets 45-37 Denver 44-38 Houston 43-39 Memphis 43-39 Phoenix 41-41 Utah 41-41 Now Houston would get in based on the tie-breaker with Memphis but it goes to show how much those two games vs Philly and Minnesota hurt. It could have meant a possible 6th seed matchup with Dallas or a 7th seed matchup with LA instead of a first round matchup with the Spurs. Even as it stands this means that every game here on out if its a W on paper the Rockets MUST win there cannot be any slip ups like Minnesota again. And of course if they are able to sneak a W (like against Portland tomorrow night for example) it will be a huge blessing. right now most of these teams are hard to predict given the recent changes to them (except for portland who just got better and Hornets who sort of stayed the same adding Landry) and so the Rockets really should try to make that playoff push. The good news is that I believe the Rockets own the tiebreakers over Denver and Memphis so that will help greatly in any seeding positioning. If they beat the Hornets one more time they would split the first tie-breaker but lose the second tie-breaker. Right now the easier schedule and is in the Rockets favor and the coaching staff is going to have to do the best job they've done in a while to get this team into the playoffs. I think having Dragic will help with the second unit though losing Battier hurts big time if Budinger can continue is recent impressive play than it may help the team more than Battier did. Its going to be a dog fight down the stretch but I think the Rockets do have a good chance in making it.
I think the playoffs are still a goal. Trying to get into the playoffs is something we have some control over. The picks aspect is entirely dependent on those teams. I think Morey just placed bets and is gambling. I agree that Morey didn't deal for Wallace because it didn't guarantee a playoff spot and because of the future money. However, I still think Morey's goal is the playoffs. I think he realized that Utah and Denver would lose their center pieces and slide and that Memphis would take a hit with Gay out. We've been a borderline playoff team during the season, maybe these other situations put us closer to the boder. I think NOLA and Portland will make it no problem. I think Denver and Memphis have a strong chance of falling out but it would take a good losing streak.
