[Nuggets] Off-season 2008

Because I constantly have stupid little tid-bits that aren't worth starting a new thread, here's a dedicated one for you guys.

Big rumor going around (and even Chad Ford is commenting on it) is the Nugs are trading #20 to Memphis for Kyle Lowry and #28. I've been trying to get Lowry since last August, so obviously I like the move. I'm not a huge fan of Chalmers (I prefered Lawson), and the swingman I like most that will be available at #20 is Chris Douglas-Roberts. There's a chance he could slide to #28, so it's worth the risk. If not, I wouldn't mind us going after Luc Richard Mbah a Moute or Ryan Anderson at 28. Both are small reaches, but both fill needs (defensive swingman and perimeter shooting big man respectively).

Still rumors that teams are calling about Melo, still rumors that we're listening but not hearing anything even close to what they'd want.

Still hearing rumors about AI. No inside info, but gut instinct says he's gone.

No rumors about Camby, but I'm almost certain he's gone. I'd be willing to dump his sorry ass for one of those cheap $5 promotional basketballs they give away at games.

As always, if you want Nugs info, I can not recommend PickaxeAndRoll.com enough. Dude knows his stuff and is a numbers nerd like I am. I particularly enjoyed his post on Camby (I think it's 4 posts down as of right now).

 

OK, I mis-read something and need to clarify. I saw the rumor on DraftExpress and it was Lowry & #28 for #20. Chad Ford is reporting Lowry & #28 for Kleiza & #20. Obviously, I don't like that deal.

 

Honestly, call it naivite, call it stupidity, but I don't buy the Kleiza/20 for Lowry/28 rumor. We're trading the better player and the better pick. As for the Artest deal, I hated that one. I would have dealt Kleiza to get Mike Miller, but not Artest. He wasn't what we needed. We needed an outside shooter last year.

Dude, I am a big fan of Lowry. He is, IMO, one of the best buy-low options in the league. If the 20 for Lowry/28 offer is on the table, it's a no-brainer for me. He's immediately our best defender, he gives us a PG (which we desperately need) and while his shooting isn't great, it's better than first glance. He only shoots 26% from behind the arc, but it's not like he kept chucking. In fact, he averages 1.34 points per shot, which would have put him second on the Nugs for regulars (behind AI, tied with Melo and LK). Plus, his adjusted FG% is 46.3% which, while not stellar, is solid.

God no. If we're gonna have a pothead, I want the talented one. You'll find a range of thoughts on Melo right now with Nugs fans but IMO, the majority of them are in the "we'll listen to offers for Melo, but you're not getting him cheap". Put players around him that fit his game, and he's ready to take the next step. People forget how good he was until the brawl in NY two years ago. I firmly believe he can get back there. Just surround him with players that work well for him. Once again, PickaxeAndRoll.com has a great article on him. Pointed out that he didn't get as many points from inside last year as he did two years ago. In a perfect world, we trade Camby for Andrea Bargnani and filler and see what Bargnani can become (I just want to point out, I have not heard that rumor at all, it's something I made up... do not think it is a legit rumor). Front court rotation of Bargnani, K-Mart, Nene (sigh) and another player (HOPEFULLY Najera). Melo, LK, JR & Lowry and then add in a back-up PG (or keep Carter I guess) and get a SG that can, you know, shoot.

BTW, I firmly believe that the #1 priority for the Nugs this off-season is getting Sam Cassell. He loves Karl, he wants to coach under Karl. We need a veteran leader. At the risk of getting the ire of Tinman, I'm not sure Cassell can really play anymore, but he'll get Melo's respect. He's one of the few people in this league that can tell him that lazy, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.

 

Missed this comment, sorry.

A_3PO always enjoys when this comment comes up because it allows him to make fun of me. Honestly, I'd hang on to JR. We're not paying him the big bucks, and as much of a knucklehead as he is, he's not really disturbing chemistry. He's another one that could use the Cassell touch. There's always the chance he self-destructs, but I'm willing to give him more time. I REALLY like him in the Manu role off of the bench.

 

I absolutely hate Skip to My Lou, but Battier is one of my favorite players in the league. I'd do that deal. Why would Houston? Come to think of it, I've been meaning to start a thread on this but don't want to deal with the attacks -- WHY THE HELL DO SOME OF YOU WANT TO TRADE BATTIER? Do you not realize how valuable he is? He is, IMO, the best defender in the NBA bar none. He's a solid shooter. He's a glue guy. He does everything that you need out of a third banana. I keep seeing you guys starting threads to dump him, and I honestly don't get it. Did he shoot someone this off-season and I just missed that announcement?

Why on Earth would SA do that?

And finally, the post I was hoping for...

I honestly think a lot of the Karl decision came down to the fact that the owner knew we weren't winning a championship next year, so he didn't want to spend $4 mil or whatever it was to buy Karl out (or fire him) and THEN have to spend another $3-4 mil on another coach. That said, I think you're right on the roster changes.

I love AI. He's been a joy, he works hard, he's fearless and brought a little bit of toughness that this team needed. That said, the AI thing didn't work. Most people predicted it would be because both AI & Melo were too selfish. I disagree with that. They shared the ball. Problem is, we didn't surround them with the right people necessary to make it work (people who can SHOOT THE DAMN BALL!). I also think that before the AI deal, Melo was really taking leadership of the team. When AI came, he deferred to Melo, but you could tell that Melo was never really comfortable trying to "lead" with AI there as well. It's probably best to move him, and it sounds like the Nugs are getting some decent offers for him.

Agreed 100%.

I love TJ Ford, but his lack of shooting scares me. Lowry is enough of a risk for a non-shooting PG, I'm not sure we want to tie up $8 mil in a PG that isn't very good at shooting and has some pretty scary injury history. If we do a deal with Toronto, I would wet myself if we could get Bargnani and Kapono for Camby. I just don't know why Toronto does it.

LK is a riddle wrapped in an enigma with a puzzle thrown in there. I genuinely don't get the mancrush that a lot of people have on him. I think he's a solid player, I think he's a good 7th man on a team who can explode for an occasional game. But I too often see him loaf, or freelance. When he gets in ballstopper mode, he's absolutely worthless. If we can get the right piece for him in a bigger deal (package with AI or Camby?), I'd move him. In the rumored Memphis deal? No way in hell.

OK, here's a major disagreement. I think Najera was one of the most important players on the Nugs this past season by far. Do you know that the team was 9.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than off? He was one of the few guys who would actually bust his ass. I'm not saying give him $7 mil a year, but he's definitely worth the full MLE for quite a few teams. I honestly don't think we can keep him, but I hope to God we can.

Honestly, I see JR as a 6th man off of the bench a la Ginobili. He really thrived in that role at the end of the season.

I think he could go this off-season. Honestly, I waffle on him on a daily basis because you look back at that SA series two years ago and he was dominant. Against Duncan. But you can't count on that to ever show up again. BTW, I know for a fact that right before the cancer scare, the Nugs had a deal set up to move him that would have REALLY been huge for the team. Then the cancer thing came up and both sides decided to cancel the deal. So there is a market for him.

STRONGLY WHOLLY DISAGREE ON MANY MANY MANY MANY LEVELS. Before this season, I would have agreed with you completely. The contract is big, and I wasn't a fan of Kiki not only giving him the big contract but sending 3 first round picks to NJ for the right to do that. Just looking at the numbers, KMart put up 16 points and 8.5 rebounds per 40 minutes (12.4 & 6.5 per game). There was also the fact that he was by far the best defender we had. I know many disagree with me on this, but putting KMart on Kobe in the playoffs was a great move. In game one, Kobe got his 30 points but on 9 of 26 shooting. Plus, a large portion of those points came late in the game when it was already decided. The bigger problem that game was Camby not rotating (shocking) and Anthony Carter being dwarfed by Radmanovic. Game 2, Kobe went off. No one would have stopped him that night. I can't blame KMart for that one. In game three, we held Kobe to 22 points and in game four, we held him to 31. I can't get upset at those outputs. Had anyone else stepped up on D, we might have won one of those games. Kenyon's done EVERYTHING he's ever been asked. I have no problems with him what-so-ever. Do I wish his contract wasn't so ridiculously high? Damn right, but it's not my money. We're not going to deal him for anything of value, so why even think about it? I'm happy with KMart. Of our three bigs, he's the one I worry about the least.

We never have much to look forward to. But come August, I'll be convinced that we could do something once again, only to be crushed in April. I'm nothing if not consistent.

 

OK, hearing some of the scuttlebutt going around, I think the Nugs are going to be making some moves next Thursday. The key word there is "moves" as in plural. So don't judge any trades after the first one. Be patient.