When you treat his data from going against college players as though they will perfectly translate, you're treating those stats as though they are the objective truth of how he will perform in the NBA. That's ridiculous. Data informs analysis. It is not THE analysis. I did not ignore the data at all and I am still not denying it. His passing skills are shockingly overrated. Steve Nash doesn't have the best passing stats in college history but he's one of the best passers in NBA history. Because if you take Nash's obsession with winning out of the equation, your linear reading of the data will be flawed. Do you understand why the data requires processing? Do you understand that Reed is not going to do everything X% less in the NBA and there's nuance to how each and every skill translates? Your point is that my subjective assessment is different than someone else's because they posted the data and I didn't re-post it? That's an absurd assertion. All scouts are making subjective judgements after seeing the data which tells part of the story. What you're accusing me of is standard practice. Your other point was that it has something to do with me stereotyping him which was a really silly thing to say. Your quote was "I see that you are still pegging Sheppard into that 3pt shooting only white guy stereotype." Let's not forget that. You didn't realize I prefer taking a whiter player (Topic) who I'm "magically" not stereotyping. I think you're barking up the wrong tree here.
Fair points. I do see Topic as the best passer of the 3. I also agree you cannot put Topic and Amen out there together - I was just suggesting that from the perspective of someone we can bring along super slowly as a 5th guard as you suggested - i.e. Topic only plays 18-20 minutes per game for 40 something games next season and we can ensure he doesn't spend time with Amen. I would think Topic would spend half a season in the G League at least. I think Topic will have a 3PT shot by his second season but that's admittedly just a hunch.
Reed reminds me of Curry so much - and I knew Curry was going to be a great player when he was at Davidson - he just made buckets.....I am not saying Reed will be Curry but he has some of the same shot making abilities that always translate.... DD
But that's an incorrect definition. By that definition, everybody's ceiling is very limited. Nobody could ever become better than those who came before him.
Now aside from the Curry comps which are likely unrealistic or trolling, Reed's comps are these guys. NBA Comparison: Mark Price/Jimmer Fredette Strengths: This year’s “analytics darling”, Sheppard’s combination of shooting efficiency, defensive metrics and overall statistical portfolio has the analytics based pundits and teams extremely enticed by him … Exceedingly efficient shooter (52.1% from three, 53.6% overall) … Extremely unselfish player that looks to get others involved … Heady player that will not force shots … Can score from all three levels, but is most comfortable scoring from mid range and out … Comfortable shooting off the catch and off the bounce … Good elevation on his jumpshot with a high release point … Very good at making outlet passes up the court, getting his team extra transition opportunities … Gets teammates easy looks with his passes … Extremely disruptive on the defensive end … Is adept at getting deflections and steals, led the SEC in steals this past year … Uses his defense to create transition run outs for himself and teammates … Blocks shots regularly, both at the rim and on the perimeter … Good at throwing the lob when help side cuts off his drives. Low ego player – will fill in the gaps for a team and was willing to come off the bench for all but 5 games his freshman year … NBA moving towards a shooting oriented league with added 3 point value plays into a player like Reed Sheppard hands … A sneaky athlete who is surprisingly more athletic and quick than he appears … Weaknesses: Lacks the ideal size and physique for the next level … Despite his ability to make big plays on defense, often finds himself out of position or gambling for a big play … Is not the type of player to be a top option offensively for his team – works best as a glue guy/connector piece … Can struggle to get off shots against good defenses – lacks creation skills … Will occasionally force passes trying to make something happen and it will result in turnovers (averaged 2 turnovers per contest) … Scoring can be very up-and-down from game to game (7 games scoring 20 or more, 12 scoring fewer than 10) … Doesn’t have a lot of moves to breakdown defenders, relies primarily on using angles to get to his spots … May need some time to adjust to the speed and athleticism at the next level … Game isn’t very versatile – best suited playing a specific role … https://www.nbadraft.net/players/reed-sheppard/ Projected role: Connector or combo guard Comparisons: Donte DiVincenzo, Kirk Hinrich NBA scouts see two potential roles for Sheppard, depending on how much of his off-the-dribble creativity can translate. At worst, he's a connector who's valued for spot-up shooting and passing. In this role, he'd play more time off the ball at the 2, stretching the floor with his deep range. On the ball, he'd focus more on facilitating in ball screens and making quick, smart decisions rather than self-creating for scoring. In that scenario, he projects more as a Donte DiVincenzo-like offensive energizer. At best, he demonstrates enough burst and shiftiness to blow by or separate, turning into more of a lead guard. Sheppard isn't an explosive athlete, but he can surprise defenders with a quick first move or decent elevation on pull-up jumpers. Offense can run through his high skill level as a playmaker and shotmaker, along with his basketball IQ. Some scouts have compared him to Kirk Hinrich if he shows he can thrive as a team's primary ball-handler. Yes, I think he'll be better than Jimmer and If he can reach this ceiling and become Mark Price I would be very happy.
I'd say analytics is more than was this a good player where they played. It is mostly about how good a player will be. Holland's stats that pop are size/speed combo, steals and blocks, scoring inside, scoring volume, and ability to get to the line. Not sure how Pelton works out his model, but guessing it values shooting heavily. I'd guess some models are going to love the ability to get to the line.
LMFAO Jimmer, Mark Price, Divencenzo, Hinrich, Sheppard I wonder what all these guys really have in common. The most important part of their likely comps has nothing to do with basketball
Claims Sheppard is “this year’s analytics darling” and then compares him to a bunch of whites dudes, none of which were analytics darlings.
I think everyone understands that there's always a chance a player could become better than their ceiling comps. Analyzing prospects is inexact and imperfect by nature. The reason it's a ceiling is because that's very rare. I almost feel like you can't even apply a ceiling comp at all if the player you're using is a one the greatest of all time. Maybe if the prospect just has otherworldly levels of both physical talent and strong basketball skills, like LeBron or Wemby, but even then I'd hesitate and probably reach a little bit lower on the shelf. Getting into the top 10 or 15 players ever is such a tiny percentage. There have been around 5,000 NBA players in the sport's history, we're talking being in the top 0.2% of those already-insane talents. Sure, some guys are more likely than others, but I see no reason to slap that label on Reed Sheppard who is not even the consensus #1 pick in his class, a draft class which front offices are widely panning and describing as one of the worst in the past 20 years.
Lol, we'll see if he becomes Curry or Nash when he hits the league. Again I like him and if he can be Mark Price whom his game resembles, they didn't have analytics on Mark then or modern league rules, I will be very happy with the pick. We can agree to disagree
Curry and Nash are not even good comps. When you compare players they should have similar elite traits, the thing that sets them apart. Nash’s elite trait was passing, he was also an elite shooter. Curry’s elite trait was 3 point shot creation, he was also an elite shooter. Sheppard is not the passer that Nash was, and doesn’t have Curry’s shot creation. But his defensive event creation is on par with someone like Gary Payton and that’s what sets him apart. Along with the fact that he does have plus passing and elite shooting, even if not on the level of Curry or Nash.
Btw I’ve been watching Sheppard’s passing and it is at least on par with Curry’s. That is to say, he may not be an elite playmaker that you can run a top offense through, but they can definitely be your point guard if you build a system and have other playmakers around them (Draymond/Sengun). I have also seen Sheppard make way more advanced reads than Green ever has fwiw.(Not much)
Reed averaged more assists than Curry did his first two years at Davidson (4.5 v. 2.9) despite playing fewer minutes than Curry and having a lower usage rate. I 100% believe Sheppard can be our PG. Or he can be offball to Amen. That’s why I like his fit. He can help shore up our weakness in many roles.
Can someone explain to me why Reed can't be a PG in the NBA? Watching his college film, it definitely looks like he is a PG more than anything
He can, and most likely will be. It’s just another thing for people to detract from him. He’s a really good passer, solid ball handler, but because he isn’t flashy some people can’t look past that. They don’t see how fundamentally sound he is while also being a good NBA level athlete.
@Medicine N Music @DaDakota @CXbby liked/loved Curry (and also like/love Reed) if that gives you any confidence/reassurances Spoiler https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/is-stephen-curry-an-upgrade-over-aaron-brooks.170234/ https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/stephen-curry.145523/ https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/stephen-curry-a-bust.170702/ https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/stephen-curry-is-more-athletic-than-monta-ellis.170620/ and two Jimmer threads https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/jimmer-fredette-anyone.199780/ https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/jimmer-more-inches-than-people-expect.202687/ and a Redick thread https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...ter-since-ray-allen-and-reggie-miller.112926/
I'm in the "Reed can most likely play PG, especially for the Rockets" camp (my opinion probably mirrors what @cmoak1982 said), but I think the concerns are: 1) His handle could be much better. Seems to panic under pressure, and he picks up the ball way too much (vs keeping his dribble alive). 2) Might struggle with self creation, which could limit his playmaking and scoring ability. 3) IMO he showed good vision/playmaking/passing/etc at Kentucky, but he didn't get as many reps as you'd like. More is always better. Can he consistently make those pocket passes? Etc. You have doubts about stuff like that, then yeah maybe he'd struggle as a lead ballhandler/PG.
That was his best take in 15 years. I never heard of Curry or researched him until he was already drafted. Good to have this kind of Pre-draft experience with another shooter.....
I believe Reed's defensive prowess is best described as a combination of Payton, Kobe, Kawhi, Mutombo, and Sidney Moncrief.
When you pose questions in this manner it's truly impossible to have an actual discussion. Every draft prospect can technically be anything, just look at Jokic. Prospects should be discussed on a scale of likelihoods. This is why scouting exist, so people can estimate the odds based on how past players of Sheppard's skillsets have developed. Most scouting reports of him suggest that he's more a co-lead kind of guy, which I think can work on the Rockets if one is to believe Sengun can be an offensive hub and Amen developing enough to be one of the main facilitators. But no one is projecting high likelihood of Harden/CP3 level facilitator here.
