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Why You Love Mayor Pete

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Ubiquitin, Apr 2, 2019.

  1. Major

    Major Member

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    People said the same thing about latino voters and Obama. And white voters and Obama. And Trump and evangelicals. Pete doesn't have black support right now because no one knows him. But Obama didn't have much black support at this time during his candidacy either - those voters supported Hillary because they knew her. It's hard to say, at this point, whether Pete has a fundamental problem with minority voters or they just don't know much about him as of yet and have no reason to support him over Biden or others they have a history with.
     
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  2. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    I normally agree with just about all of your posts, but think you’re way off on this one.

    This isn’t just an exposure issue. Black voters know enough about him: gay (huge generational problem for a segment of voters), shaky history on race relations and arguably inexperienced.

    I say all of this as someone that likes Mayor Pete and he’s currently #2 on my list.

    Mayor Pete winning over black voters is going to be a major project. It won’t happen overnight. His best bet is to continue to surge in Iowa, appear presidential in the debates and continue to ride momentum. Eventually, his biggest selling point will be electability and his ability to enact change that will benefit that community. Then they’ll warm up to him.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    I agree with this - I think it's a huge challenge for him in the primaries. I think he wins Iowa and NH, but I'm not sure he can go much further than that. The coverage of him and how he introduces himself to a national audience is going to be huge for him there. But in terms of general election, I'm not sure it's a problem. This part:

    This isn’t just an exposure issue. Black voters know enough about him: gay (huge generational problem for a segment of voters), shaky history on race relations and arguably inexperienced.

    Is the part I have questions about. We are a very tribal society at this point (Trump winning over evangelicals, for example). I don't think the gay thing is as big a deal as people make it - society changes really quickly on that type of thing, and anti-Trump will overcome that to a large extent. Inexperienced is a problem with all races - nothing specific with minorities there. I do think the shaky history on race relations is a bigger questionmark - that's where I'm curious if the low polling is due to specific things about him like this vs just people not knowing him.

    I think we, as people really following this race, underestimate just how little people know about Pete. His entire campaign is focused on Iowa and NH, and even there, he was polling in low-to-mid single digits until his recent massive ad buy. I suspect your average primary voter in Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond see this as Biden, Bernie, and Warren, and also with some good knowledge (and distinterest) in Harris and maybe Booker. Everyone else is kind of an unknown. I go back here to Obama in 2008, where he was polling really poorly nationally and with subgroups until his win in Iowa, which introduced him to the nation and changed the entire view of his electability. That said, I'm complete agreement that I may be way off base here - I think this election is as unpredictable as any I've followed and I really have no idea what to expect.

    But my guess is Pete either soars or completely flops - I don't think there's much in between for him. And if he wins the nomination, I think he wins the Presidency easily. To me, the primary is a bigger challenge for him.
     
  4. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    I dont love him , he comes off a s a bit inauthentic to me ... which i mean i guess every politician is.

    I just cant see past anything due to my overwhelming love of Yang
     
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  5. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    If the black vote is such a king-maker in the general election, it should be even more powerful in the Democratic primary. If you're right that African Americans will doom him, I don't see how he'll get the nomination.

    I've probably said this too many times already, but vote for who you want, we'll count them up and see who we're going to war with. No need to fret over what other people might do.
     
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  6. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    I'm so sick of Iowa and New Hampshire shaping national elections.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    I think it's important that small states play an outsized role so that money doesn't determine who can compete, but they really should make Iowa, NH, Nevada, and South Carolina all happen on the same day. That's 4 small states in diverse regions and with diverse demographics, so people have multiple routes to competing.
     
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  8. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    After looking at Biden’s polling in SC, NV, and others I feel more and more that Iowa and NH could be like being up 5 in the first quarter vs the Rockets. Basically meaningless. Most elections that’s not the case.

    Basically unless Biden implodes or the find a white hood in his closet, I think he strolls to the nomination in the end.

    I think the big story about Pete is that he’s certainly in the top tier and should be taken seriously. He just has no full coalition support that Obama, and Biden have in the states later on with more delegates.
     
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  9. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    We’re actively supporting Pete, including contributing to his campaign. I find the mixed view of him in this thread (and don’t know how I missed it, @Ubiquitin!) fascinating. He’s already being “accused” of being an “establishment candidate,” simply because he’s a moderate Democrat. Guess what. He’s far from being an “establishment” candidate. Look into his personal history. Look into his stand on the issues. Heck, read his book. It’s well worth reading.

    I seriously doubt the ability of Sanders or Warren to win in 2020. I also think either one would damage our chances of taking back the Senate, as well as increasing our majority in the House. I’m a liberal Democrat, but I’m also a pragmatist. It’s why I happily voted for Hillary Clinton. I wasn’t so possessed by angst at the thought of a Ms Clinton presidency that I stayed at home, voted Green or for someone else, or voted for trump. Some of the liberals here refused to vote for Clinton, and look what it got you. Mr trump, the biggest political disaster to hit this country in my lifetime. Worse than Nixon, and I voted against Tricky Dick. Nixon was a far better president than trump, Watergate and all. That’s not even getting into trump’s judicial record. Dozens of very conservative Federal judges, many for life, and then there’s the Supreme Court.

    So how do we win in 2020? We nominate and support a young moderate Democrat. A Democrat who is more liberal that he’s given credit for. Certainly more liberal than President Obama. He will appeal to the middle of this country, the moderate Democrats who have a real problem with Sanders and Warren, particularly “Medicare for All.” They are afraid of losing their private insurance. They might hold their noses and vote for Bernie or Warren, but some will stay home.

    The independent voters are who will be impacted the most by their candidacy. They don’t like how “Left” they are, they don’t like the thought of abruptly losing their private insurance, or losing it at all, and many of them simply don’t like their personalities. That last bit goes for a lot of Democrats, as well. Pete is a very likable guy. He’s smart as hell and comes across that way in the debates. He would eviscerate trump in a debate.

    I agree with those who say the biggest problem facing him in getting the nomination is getting across to the Black voters who typically vote Democratic. I think he can manage it. I also think that being Gay won’t be a big a hurdle as many are thinking it will be. I was concerned about that myself, but those who point at Obama’s ability to get elected make a good point. I can’t tell you how many times during my life I heard, “A Black American will be president someday, but not in my lifetime.” After two terms as a very popular president, Obama put that to rest. I think Pete will put to rest the idea that America isn’t ready for a Gay president, if he can get the nomination. I hope he does.
     
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  10. Major

    Major Member

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    I would just say that at this point in 2008 (or 2007, really), Clinton had a 20 pt lead in South Carolina and a 25 pt lead in Nevada.
     
    #30 Major, Nov 18, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2019
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  11. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    I just don't think black voters will refuse to vote for a gay candidate and let Trump win. More than likely, they will find a way to rationalize that he's ok for a gay person and vote for him anyway.

    Ethnic minorities tend to be more homophobic as a result of a few things, but one is not wanting their struggle to not be associated with something they see as less legitimate. That said, I can't see the showing up in any less numbers than they did for Clinton. All you have to do is remind them how great Trump has been for blacks and all the wonderful policies he has that benefits black people.
     
  12. mick fry

    mick fry Member

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    Yes I can’t wait to have the first man lady(not counting Michael). You damn right the rest of the world will sit up and take notice. U S A !!!
     
  13. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Are you homophobic?
     
  14. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    This is a new low, even by D and D standards. Not that I’m terribly surprised, but you really should edit that out. And no, I’m not some PC snowflake. It’s not that it offends me, but this is something straight out of the Archie Bunker show.
     
  15. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    Actually, just leave it. It’s probably best for folks to see what you’re about.
     
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  16. TheresTheDagger

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  17. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian
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    I think your assessment is correct. I think Mayor Pete will get a nice bump early, and may end up being the runner-up, but I think that Biden ultimately has this in the bag.

    Question is whether Buttigieg can garner enough support to make it interesting and maybe get Biden to consider him as his running mate. Would Biden risk it thinking that he’ll get the African-American vote anyway, or will he stick with Abrams as has long been rumored?

    Honestly, I’d rather Buttigieg get it and have been rooting for him all along to be the VP nominee. Just the thought of Pence having to debate Buttigieg gives me the warm tinglies. Would Pence even attend?
     
  18. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Haters go home
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    Mayor Pete not really doing himself any favors there
     
  19. mick fry

    mick fry Member

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    Oh stop it.
    Traditional values and morality?
     
  20. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Yeah the thought of him calling out his hypocrisy on the debate stage to his face is pretty enticing.

    However I think Stacy Abrams would seem to have it in the bag. I think it’s the main reason she didn’t get in (other than her awesome voting rights group) knowing that she’ll essentially be unvarnished from the brutal primary season and able to be flexible on policy issues to fall behind an existing platform. She was smart to do that and made herself the primary VP pick.

    Mayor Pete is not that far off on policy though so I don’t think he’s a bad pick and with a VP slot in the Biden admin it might gain him the goodwill he lacks with African American voters long term to setup a larger coalition for 2024 (if Biden is only able to do one term) or 2028. I think regardless, the Dems base will believe it’s important to have a VP pick who can be the heir apparent in a lot of ways.
     
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