Who do the Astros draft number 1?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by bobmarley, Oct 3, 2011.

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Who will the Astros select first overall in the draft?

Poll closed Nov 2, 2011.
  1. Mark Appel

    48.7%
  2. Lucas Giolito

    10.3%
  3. Devin Marrero

    12.8%
  4. Lance McCullers

    25.6%
  5. Nick Williams

    43.6%
  6. Other, please name

    12.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    No one is seeming to stand out above the rest so the question comes down to who is your guy?
    Astros to pick 1st in 2012 MLB Draft

    I have looked at several mocks and scouting reports. Here are our culprits.

    Mark Appel
    Ht/Wt:6' 5"/190 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Stanford
    Mark Appel Draft Profile

    Lucas Giolito
    Ht/Wt:6' 6"/220 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Harvard-Westlake School (CA)
    Lucas Giolito Draft Profile

    Lance McCullers
    Ht/Wt:6' 2"/195 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Jesuit HS (FL)
    Lance McCullers Draft Profile
    Lance McCullers article

    Devin Marrero
    Ht/Wt:6' 1"/172 lbs
    Position: SS
    School: Arizona State
    Devin Marrero Draft Profile

    Nick Williams
    Ht/Wt:6' 3"/195 lbs
    Position: OF
    School: Ball High School (TX)
    Nick Williams Draft Profile
     
    #1 bobmarley, Oct 3, 2011
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2011
  2. YaosDirtyStache

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    Drafting isnt the problem. SIGNING them should be the priority.
     
  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Mark Appel
    Ht/Wt:6' 5"/190 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Stanford


    Most likely candidate at this point. Fairly polished and could be in big leagues in 2 years.

    Lucas Giolito
    Ht/Wt:6' 6"/220 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Harvard-Westlake School (CA)


    Possible if he blows everyone away, if Heck is still in charge of the draft he becomes a real possibility. Still, he is a HS pitcher, teams know they fail often.

    Lance McCullers
    Ht/Wt:6' 2"/195 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Jesuit HS (FL)


    Electric arm, but at this point profiles as a reliever, don't think he will go #1

    Devin Marrero
    Ht/Wt:6' 1"/172 lbs
    Position: SS
    School: Arizona State


    Team is deep up the middle in the minors, and there is concern about where he will play long term.

    Nick Williams
    Ht/Wt:6' 3"/195 lbs
    Position: OF
    School: Ball High School (TX)


    Scouts have backed off on him a bit, possibly could slip in 15-20 range unless he shows issues with his swing are minor.

    I say Appel is the most likely pick, at about 40%..
     
  4. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Way too early to call. We still have one full baseball season to play, before making the call.
     
  5. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member

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    I hate to harp on it, but there have only ever been two high school pitchers drafted number one overall:

    Brien Taylor

    and

    David Clyde

    When you compile a list of professional baseball players including David Clyde and he isn't the most disappointing player on that list, you know it is bad.

    I will be blown away if the Astros have the temerity to add another name to that list.
     
  6. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    This.

    Appel is the leader going into the NCAA/HS season.
     
  7. msn

    msn Member

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    The answer is simple. The Astros will draft the Savior of the franchise. The player everyone dreams about in the night and drools about in the day. The player you'd lose 160 for. He'll be in the majors within a month. Because this draft is just like the NFL and NBA draft.
     
  8. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Lebron's currently unemployed. Make it happen Heck.
     
  9. rockets934life

    rockets934life Contributing Member

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    Give me Appel but, I agree, lots of time left before that point. Last year, it was Rendon and everyone else...he ended up getting drafted 6th.
     
  10. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    I just hope over the course of the next year, one guy rises above the rest. Makes the #1 pick a no brainer, for I am not sure how much faith I have in the Astros braintrust to pick the right guy amongst a pack of 6 or 8 players that are fairly close. And hopefully that guy is a starting pitcher.
     
  11. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Don't care about the players. Care about the people looking at these players. Care about people teaching these players. If you can't properly evaluate and develop talent, then it doesn't matter who the players are. And the Astros have not shown much in either department recently.

    Hopefully, they prove me wrong.
     
  12. Bear_Bryant

    Bear_Bryant Member

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    Between Appel in Williams in my opinion. It depends how they do this coming year. Williams is a hometown player and I'm sure he'd love to play in front of the Astros but why have scouts been backing off of him recently.

    Appel is a pitcher and pitching was our downfall our major downfall this year after a solid year the year before. time will tell.
     
  13. PippenAintEZ

    PippenAintEZ Member

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    I've read your sentiment about having the #1 pick in the MLB draft multiple times, but I am not sure I understand. Is your main point that the baseball draft is unlike the NBA or NFL, where you are not going to have the luxury to draft one superstar who almost instantly turns your franchise around? Or that the MLB draft is more of a crap shoot, and it really doesn't matter when you draft, either 1 or 21, as you can draft studs throughout the entire draft (multiple examples, like Piazza or Pujols).

    If that is essentially it, let me preface this by saying that I agree with you. But, my question to you would be, why does it hurt to have the #1 pick overall? Looking at it 5-10 years from now, sure, it might give us absolutely no benefit, but in my opinion there is no downfall of having the #1 pick. There is no real cost, but there is potential benefit.

    And I'm not necessarily saying you are wrong or anything, but I just want to make sure I understand your overall pessimism toward the #1 pick. For example, in my opinion it would have sucked to be the 2nd worst team the last 2 years, and we missed a chance to add either Strasburg or Harper to our organization. Although there is not a consensus #1 like those two yet, there is plenty of time for one to emerge. Just like somebody can look to the Pirates and be pessimistic, somebody else can look at the Rays and be more optimistic.

    I think as Astros fans, nobody really wants to be in this situation. I rather be making the playoffs every year and drafting late each year, but the reality is that my favorite baseball team is among the worst in the league. So why not look forward to the #1 pick, it sure as hell is better than being in the middle of the pack year-in and year-out, and signing the Woody Williams, Preston Wilsons, and Pedro Feliz's of the world. But, the silver lining is if 2 or 3 prospects we obtained from the Pence and Bourn trades develop into something big, and if we hit a home run with 1 or 2 of our top picks from next years' draft, I have hope that the Astros can get back on track in 2-3 years. That could be blind hope, but at this point that is all I have.
     
  14. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    IIRC, Scouts see holes in Nick Williams's swing. I will not be surprised if Williams drops out of the first round.
     
  15. msn

    msn Member

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    It's not the #1 pick towards which I have pessimism. It's the cost (and yes, there was cost) in getting it. For me, unless the guy we draft becomes a morph of Albert Pujols and Babe Ruth, it ain't worth it.

    It's not just that studs come from all over the draft: it's that if you draft well you're going to get studs in various rounds, regardless of whether the mythical first pick was yours. Teams that get the first pick often get it a few times. Why is that? Because they freaking suck. From the front office, all the way down through every level of the minors, they are just utter freaking garbage. What does the "first pick" do for them? Nothing. Just wait: five years from now, we *still* won't be talking about a relevant Nationals team. They are a freaking joke; and Harper/Strasburg won't save them.

    But I have to apologize for harping on this like a broken record. During the season, there were various folks who were hoping the Astros would lose, or even wanting them to "tank", all for this first pick. To me, that smacks of complete ignorance of how baseball actually works in the real world.

    Is it a "bad" thing to have the first pick? Let me answer this question with a question: Is it a "bad" thing to be in the hospital? Hospitals and early draft picks are very good--but it's what got you there that is very, very bad.
     
  16. htownrox1

    htownrox1 Member

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    I don't pay attention to scouting and who's looking good etc. So what are the chances of us drafting someone like Strasburg?
     
  17. msn

    msn Member

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    about 50 in 1500, or 1 in 30. We'll get about 50 chances (46 to 48 or so), and anywhere in those rounds you could land the next Jake Peavey, Roger Clemens, or Albert Pujols.

    The question is more about how good your scouting/management is than where you draft.
     
  18. htownrox1

    htownrox1 Member

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    So I'm guessing the Astros' aren't top notch in this area? :(
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Cost is right. I wouldn't want to pay $8 million for Appel, which is what Cole got as the number 1 guy this year.
     
  20. msn

    msn Member

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    I don't know htownrox1--Bobby Heck came to us a couple years ago with very, very good credentials. Also, Wade had a rep as really good with the farm, but not so good with the ML roster. Currently, our farm has improved, but not dramatically, and our ML roster is a sick joke. So, I don't know what to think.

    In '91, the Astros had a pretty low year (but now THIS crap), but they were freaking loaded with young talent. I simply don't see that kind of talent in our current incarnation of our beloved Astros.

    here's hoping I'm wrong, or that they draft great and turn it around, or both.
     
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