Westbrook: "I don't give a f*** about (my stat) line."

His rebound chasing thing is pathetic, regardless of what the numbers say. He could naturally average 7-8 rebs a game, which is great for a PG, and have that positive impact on transition without surrendering open looks to the opposing team. That would likely be the best scenario for OKC. I'm too lazy to run the numbers, but I'd say that their positive record when he gets the TD would be the result of the opponent missing all that open shots and him being able to chase rebounds and run in transition. If the other team is hitting them, they lose (and, obviously, he doesn't get the rebounds). The eye test clearly says that his fixation with TD (which leads him to leave his man open and not rotate in D) mostly hurts OKC. If their coaching staff order him to do so, it's just bad coaching.

 

Westbrook: "I don't give a **** about my stat line."

Some Media Jock Sniffer: "You need 34 rebounds in the next two games to average a double double for the season."

Westbrook: (during next two games)
to Stephen Adams: "Move, you clumsy b****!"
to Carmelo: "What the **** you doin', tip it! tip it!"
to Paul George: "Just block out, just block-----DAMN, dog, what are you trying to do to me, we never should have, er, hey, we cool, we cool, you're staying, right?"

 

strategy=wins

russ a statpadding loser and his team is losing as well even if they have allstars like Oladipo and PG

doesn't the end justify the means?

Russ's rebound stealing, shot stealing, stat chasing, not defending does affect his team and teammates ability to win NEGATIVELY

it neuters them, causes them to be not 100% competitive and agressive

that's why they play uninspired/losing basketball in other words WB steals their "thunder"

thunders "strategy" has nothing to do about wins

donovan and wb came up with the rebound and shot stealing "strategy" to simply pad WBs stats

 

another question is what's the defrating when wb gets the rebound

but here's a nugget when capela rebounds the ball rockets score 1.203358 ppp

 

His time on/off the court is also when Adams is on/off the court. I recall this argument coming up a lot during our playoff series last year, where his fans tried to show how OKC was outscored when he went to the bench. No, they were outscored when he and their best two defenders (Adams and Roberson) went to the bench together.

 

I know the data shows the team is better when he gets his triple doubles, but to that I say "duh." To me the problem is when he sags off a shooter to get the rebound but the shooter doesn't miss. Of course he isn't hurting his team if the guy misses anyway and he gets those boards, but how can anyone account for all of the games where guys are MAKING those shots?

 

Well RAPM also accounts for players and opponents on the court (not perfect but does a pretty good) and he's positive in that also

 

That's a good piece of data. I would also want to see the defensive side of it.

Let's recap the issue:
Westbrook is being accused of stat-padding his rebounding numbers (with the help of the team) which overall hurt the team.
In his defense, it is claimed that letting him grab as many as defensive rebounds as possible is a positive strategy to maximize fast break offense, which helps rather than hurt the team win.

To truly evaluate if the strategy is indeed good for the team, there are a few things we need to know.

1. The offensive efficiency after he gets a defensive rebound. (Very good according to the above tweet)
2. The offensive efficiency when he does not get a defensive rebound.
3. The defensive efficiency when Westbrook sags off of his man to chase the rebound. (haven't seen this info yet)
4. The differential of how many defensive boards he gets with this tactic as opposed to playing normal defense and rebounding. (no info yet)

These would give us an idea whether it is really worth it for him to chase defensive rebounds with the help of the whole team.

Of course, even if it proves that the strategy does have a net positive impact for the team, it still does not (1) justify the mindless overrating of triple double, and (2) show that Westbrook does not care about his stats. What it does show is that the coaching philosophy has good reasons to let Westbrook do what he does.

 

Good post. I would add that you also need to know those things to truly evaluate the strategy as bad for the team.

 

Well written and thought out.

I was thinking about how devastating some moments would be when Russ leaves his man in pursuit of his beloved rebounds. Let's say he goes for the rebound and doesn't get it about 40% of the time. How many times has his man (probably a point guard who is good at shooting wide open threes) been open after he goes stat chasing?

If I was his coach, I'd talk to him about the importance of team rebounding. Pushing the ball up the court doesn't require getting the rebound. I can't imagine how much more efficient he'd be if he was catching balls while running towards the opponents basket. You can't do that if you rebound the ball. Leaking out would probably generate more points overall than rebounding and taking the ball up the court yourself.

It's like cops say.. you can outrun a cop, but you'll never outrun a radio relay. The ball goes faster when it's passed forward. I don't care how fast the guy is, the ball can be thrown faster and to a person (preferable Westbrook as the receiver) who has fewer defenders to beat.

Westbrook is a solid player, but he should obsess over winning not rebounds.

There is one thing that is undeniable here: Westbrook played with 2 guys that have been perennial allstars and he only won 48 games.

 

Not a **** given, but a triple double's worth of ****s.

 

That’s a really good question. Do you have any thoughts on what we might look for to help answer that question in a quantifiable way?

How about On/Off difference for opposing FG% or eFG%? Ideally, it would adjust for other players on the floor, but for a first cut it is something that gets at what you are talking about.

 

Is this a real question?

Because I mean, it’s not thought out.

The def rating would be amazing off of Westbrook rebounds because it means they opposition missed...

 

Good question. I remember there were some stats thrown around about how his man shoots a higher percentage against him then other defenders. I haven't kept up with everything they have online the last year or so, but I would think what you mentioned would be a great place to start.

Also want to say, I don't dispute the greatness of Westbrook. He is a tremendous talent and I DON'T think triple doubles are a worthless stat. It's damn impressive. I am 100% certain I have seen his CHOICE to leave a man open to play the rebound hurt his team. It's happened against the Rockets. Now, maybe a statistician would be able to show me that the difference between the FG% when he is guarded vs unguarded is negligible anyway so he's better playing the rebounds, who knows. I'm always open to data.

 

I think only looking at the guy he is defending rather than the entire opposing team loses some of the picture. Someone may rotate to his man and leave someone else open, for instance.

What we really want, I think, is a measure of how the Thunder’s team defense changes as a function of Westbrook’s attention applied to grabbing defensive rebounds.

The claim is that the more attention he devotes to getting defensive rebounds, at least past a certain threshold, the worse the Thunder’s defense becomes (adjusting for opponent strength).

Does that sound like a good way of phrasing the claim? If so, we can think about how to check if the data supports it.

 

That sounds like a good way to phrase it.

 

Good question

 

Amazingly he whines about people being hostile in other sections.

 

I think anyone who says he's doesn't help a team are being delusional. I think he doesn't help the team as much as someone who does what he does SHOULD help, but it's a mixed bag. In general I don't think his problems are the triple doubles, I think it's just an overall selfishness.

He shoots a lot even when he shouldn't, he leaves guys to get the rebounds because by his own admission he wants the ball more than his teammates, etc.

His statement about stealing rebounds being about him wanting it more is crazy. He's competing with his own teammates in his mind. It highlights the selfishness.

 

I agree with that, with his efficiency he should be scoring 15-20 ppg and his defense could be a lot better