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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    That would be a very good place for Marisnick.
     
  2. Major

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    I sometimes wonder how much players think about this type of stuff to maximize their success. I still remember Mike Hampton deciding Colorado was a good place for him to go. (Side note: Colorado was still paying Hampton until this past year).
     
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  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I doubt players think about it often except in extreme cases when Colorado calls up a FA pitcher or a home-run hitter gets called by some team with the modern day version of the Dome.
     
  4. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    The only real question is how committed is Jim Crane to winning and paying the luxury tax?

    Houston is not a small market and according to Forbes, Crane has seen his investment appreciate considerably over the decade he has owned the Astros who are currently valued at $1.8 billion -- a 3x increase from the $610 million Crane paid in 2011.

    From a business standpoint, If the Astros can keep all the talent on this team right now and win multiple World Series, then how much additional value would that add to Crane's investment long term if Astros become a historical dynasty?

    As a fan, your heart says to go all-in and pay the tax. Whatever it takes. After all, this what all those 100 loss seasons were all about, right?

    However, the big decision will come down to if Crane is willing to put up +$250 million in salary and taxes for 3-5 years to win as many titles as possible and then make up the difference when it's time to tear it down in the late 2020's and go lean again. By then, If the Astros have 4-5 World Series banners hanging from Minute Maid Park, Crane could see his team value rise to around $5 billion -- an astronomical increase over 20 years.
     
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  5. Major

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    Valuation isn't really about World Series banners because future attendance is going to be based on how good they are then, not how good they were in the past. The Rockets aren't more any valuable today because they won some championships 25 years ago.
     
  6. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    Hadn't thought about that, brilliant idea.
     
  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'm guessing the Rockets are more valuable today because they won 2 championships 25 years ago. If Rockets hadn't won a championship, they would be known as a team they could never win it. It would hurt the brand. The second one isn't as valuable as the first.

    However, increasing payroll to $250 million likely doesn't help Astros that much for next two years. Astros may have depth issues in 2022-2024 if Luhnow can't find some bang for the buck gems by then. It is easier to buy wins to go from 85 to 90 wins than it is from 95 to 100. Usually, once a team gets to about a 95-win team, adding a player isn't replacing a nobody and somebody is getting paid serious dough to sit on bench. Though, I don't consider World Series contending team problems to be real problems.
     
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  8. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    That cross-comparison doesn't really work with baseball. Affordable ticket prices allow a lot more people to go to the games, including families in the summer who watch the Astros often and/or go to the games. A dynastic half decade here could lead to sustained attendance for a few extra seasons.
     
  9. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    Winning championships absolutely affects market value just look at the Golden State Warriors who are now the 3rd highest valued team in the NBA at $3.5 billion. That's an 8x increase in value since Joe Lacob bought that franchise for $450 million in 2010.

    Yes, market price in general for sports teams are going up across the board, but championship winning teams are seeing exponential increases over the rest.

    Winning multiple championships leads to huge increases in revenue from longterm corporate sponsorships that teams can lock up with 10 years contracts. That's where the real money is, not from average joe attending more games. It's the sponsors, the advertisers, the TV contracts that make the cream part of the revenue.

    Even the general attendance comes down to how many luxury suites and season tickets you can lock-up longterm with corporate sponsors who are willing to pay the premium for your expensive arena or stadium. That's why asthetically the Toyota Center lower bowl looks abysmal on TV, but every single one of those seats is paid for already, sometimes even seasons ahead.
     
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  10. Jake Tower

    Jake Tower Member

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  11. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    That’s not really true man. Future attendance is absolutely driven by winning titles and stacking them up now. This team is creating an entire generation of fans out of youngsters around town and that will pay off long term in ticket sales, merchandise and allegiance to the team.
     
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  12. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    We can't keep moving the goal posts on him: he is absolutely, positively committed to winning. Full stop.
     
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  13. sealclubber1016

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    In terms of revenue to payroll, I doubt anybody is making a bigger commitment to winning.

    Crane isn't a multi billionaire, and this club isn't bringing in close to what the high end franchises are making. Yet we are around the top 5 in payroll, and will probably be in the top 5 next season.

    Financially speaking, he's lived up to everyone of his promises and then some. Fans treat owners like they're playing with monopoly money. Sometimes it's deserved( I'm not gonna name any names), but sure as hell not in this case
     
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  14. rockbox

    rockbox Contributing Member

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    I think the championships bring loyalty that you can't have otherwise. How many of us are here because of a championship 25 years ago. All the 99ers are here because of those championships. Believe it or not, the rockets had a sellout streak for many years after the championships. The Astros average attendance has gone up after the WS.
     
  15. conquistador#11

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    Other than the catcher position and josh reddick, The astros have top 3 OPS production at every position in the AL.
     
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  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    4th at 1B
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I disagree with this article. The Greinke trade was a win now move but painting Houston as having an aging roster or closing window is off imho. Their 5 best position players are all under 30, and they have 4 position players under 26 (Bregman, Correa, Alvarez, Tucker) who have star level talent.

    It’s their complementary position players (Gurriel, Brantley, Chirinos) who make their lineup look old. They could easily swing trades that essentially swaps Gurriel with Toro, Brantley with a good young OF acquired via trade (Soler?) and a younger catcher (Narvaez?), and suddenly their lineup would be one of the youngest in the league next season, and only a win or two worse.

    As for their pitching, it’s obvious Luhnow’s strategy revolves around acquiring veteran pitchers and squeezing more out of them. But the presence of Urquidy, Abreu, James, McCullers, Osuna, and Whitley gives them half a pitching staff under 26. If they wanted to focus on getting younger, they could trade out Verlander, Greinke, and Peacock for young bullpen arms, resign Cole and a younger free agent pitcher (Lyles?), and suddenly they’d have one of the youngest staffs and rosters in the majors, and still only be a handful of wins worse off (taking a 107 win team to a 102 win team).
     
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  18. luckyman76

    luckyman76 Member

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    THIS. 100% correct. I don't know why people don't get this. It's effectively blowing up your Q rating and providing you sales leverage that you just cannot account for using normal models. Locked in revenues DRIVE valuation.
     
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  19. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Article doesn't bother me much. Basically says Astros window is to 2021. Astros have work to do for years 2022 through 2024 to keep window open. The article reminds me of an article by Kaplan at the Athletic that the Astros may have a bullpen problem at the 4th reliever spot. There really isn't a bullpen problem if you are talking about the 4th reliever. The window isn't really closing soon if you are talking about it closing after the next 3 postseasons.

    If Astros don't do anything except make trades of equal value and sign market value free agents up to luxury tax threshold, I get the below estimates using prorated Fangraphs Projections, aging curves, Fangraphs Prospect valuations, and Fangraphs empirically derived WAR values for prospects. Please caveat that the numbers are highly inaccurate and only for a general feel.

    2020 97
    2021 98
    2022 90
    2023 86
    2024 84

    I still don't think much from rest of AL West from 2022 through 2024. A's may be about same projection over that time, but Angels, Mariners, and Rangers need a lot of luck to bounce back any time soon. It might only take 90-92 wins in 2022 though 2024 to win AL West or Second Wild Card.
     
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  20. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

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    Window won’t be closing if we can re-sign Cole, trade Greinke and Correa to haul in major prospects (MLB ready) to get on the field right away or trade chips. But even if we lose Cole, 2 more years of competing for WS is pretty stealth for me. Also, Springer is the key player for me. I really don’t know what to think of him. He has been such a huge part of Astros success last 5 years, you would think the organization should reward him with a huge contract. But he’s gonna he 31 y/o when he hit FA and there’s reports out there that the Nationals offering OF Rendon (29 y/o) 7Y/210M. That just a start. Springer won’t be much cheaper. Maybe less years but I believe he will be making north of 25M per year. I fully believe that if we can’t extend Springer this off-season, he is as good as gone after next year. If Springer doesn’t re-sign, Astros make an effort to extend Correa this or next off-season. Keeping 1 of those 2 will be key. As much of a puss that Correa is, I rather have him over Springer long term. But the rosters can change so much in 1 year, let alone what will happen in 3 years.

    Another topic to consider is Astros television contract with AT&T SportsNet. Is it time to re-negotiate? Or as suggest somewhere on here before that maybe Astros and Rockets should get together and form their own television right. Astros/Rockets are the only reason why I still have Comcast cable at home.
     
    #160 AznH-TownFan, Oct 1, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2019
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