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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I don’t think anyone is stressing. Some people just like gameplanning out **** like this. I know I do.
     
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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    He’s still a serviceable player, and not every team has a Top 20 mlb prospect like Tucker waiting in the wings. There are plenty of teams who would be happy to have him as their everyday RF. If he were a free agent, he’d probably be looking at a ~$8M/1yr deal. So Houston can either pay down $5-6M, or include a decent prospect to offset the negative value.

    Reddick posted star-level numbers in 2017. His power has declined but his low strikeout rate and solid defense are still things that would appeal to teams.
     
  3. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    J.D. Martinez who - like Springer will be - was entering his age-31 season, had to settle for 5/$110MM ($22MM AAV). That is right in-line with Heyward's deal a few years earlier ($23MM AAV), minus the # of years. And JD didn't sign until February because the market just wasn't there - both because there are far more non-contenders than contenders + teams are more reluctant to offer longer deals to 30+-year old players.

    While I think Springer is better than JD Martinez (but not better than Heyward *when he entered free agency* - Heyward was several years younger), I would be surprised if he finds an appreciably better market. Him having one more year of arbitration gives the Astros some leverage, as does the slower free agent market the past two years.

    I don't think anybody is going to give Springer 6 years, nor do I think he can hit $25 AVV on a deal longer than 4 years.
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    You might be right. The free agent market has been unkind to 30+ year old outfielders. Only thing I’d note is that Springer will be coming to the table with a better offensive track record than Heyward and a much better defensive track record than Martinez. Springer is roughly comparable to Bryce Harper in terms of value, although obviously the age difference will result in a much shorter deal for Springer.
     
  5. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    While I think this is all potentially viable... Josh Reddick is not, right now, worth $8MM - he's on pace to produce .5-.6 fWAR this year (if you use bWAR, which is more favorable to defense, it's ~.8 bWAR), which is about $4-6.5MM. The Astros are set to pay him $13MM next year... I think it's going to bne hard/expensive to get rid of him.

    The Astros not calling Tucker up to push Reddick out will remain one of this regime's bigger headscratchers for me. Reddick is not a very good baseball player.
     
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I don’t really agree with your numbers. Recent free agent seasons have valued projected fWAR at closer to $10M. Also, Reddick has put up 0.5 fWAR so far, with ZIPS, Steamer, and Depth Charts all projecting to accumulate another 0.4 thru the remaining games, which would put him at 0.9. But he won’t be valued by what he did this year, he’ll be valued by what he is projected to do next year. It’s easy to assume he’s suffering from age-related decline and at least part of his poor performance is likely related to that, but he’s has similar down years in the past and I believe he will project as ~1.5 fWAR player next season, which would make him roughly worth his contract. Of course, I think if he’s traded, Houston will have to take a discounted return.

    I don’t blame Houston for not calling up Tucker. He wasn’t having a great season in AAA, and that combined with the lack of need meant he didn’t justify restarting his service time clock and writing off Reddick and his contract.
     
  7. prospecthugger

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    I've always thought Lorenzo Cain is the most relevant comp for Springer. Springer is a better hitter, but they'd both be RHH 31 year old CF/RF. He averaged 4.25 WAR over his 4 years prior to hitting FA. Springer will probably beat that, but it sets a bit of a baseline. He got 5/$80 million.
     
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  8. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Heyward, in his four years prior to free agency, produced 18.6 fWAR and was 26. Harper, in his four years prior to free agency, produced 20.5 fWAR and was also 26. (Yes, he had a remarkable 9.3 in his MVP season - but even removing that, he would've been ~15 fWAR/4 years and had a 9.3 season as proof that his ceiling was remarkably high.)

    Springer has produced 16.4 fWAR in his previous four full seasons (he'll inch closer to 17 once we fold this year into that calculation). BUT! He'll be entering his age-31 season. Big, BIG difference. I think 3- to maybe 5-years, MAX, and somewhere between $20-$25MM AAV is where he'll land. Now! He likely believes he's worth more and maybe someone will agree with him. But right now... I wouldn't hold my breath.
     
  9. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    There is zero.point.zero chance Josh Reddick - who took 409 plate appearances to total .5 fWAR - is going to somehow produce .4 his final ~80-ish plate appearances, if he even gets that many considering he's in a full-blown platoon with Marisnick and is going to lose ABs once the division is wrapped/September call-ups.

    Regardless, he's not going to suddenly reverse a two-year decline next year when he's 33. The Astros will absolutely try to unload him - but it's likely only a contender would want him - UNLESS he comes attached with a valuable asset (either $$ or a viable prospect), which, again, means he'll be expensive to unload.
     
  10. Rockets FTW

    Rockets FTW Member
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    If Reddick batted up in the order and had more AB's I would like to think he'd be able to produce more. There's only so much he can do batting at the bottom of the order. BUT, maybe batting 9th ahead of Springer, consistently, could elevate some of these stats.

    I think it's a discounted return, regardless, due to him becoming a FA at the end of next season. To the point, Astros may just keep him.
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Assuming there’s only $5-8M of negative value, I don’t think Houston would have to include much to get rid of him. Maybe an upside arm like Enoli Paredes or Brandon Bailey. In fact that may be a good approach, attach Reddick to a prospect who is Rule 5 eligible but not a lock for a roster spot. They could get rid of his contract and alleviate the roster crunch with 1 move.
     
  12. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    You know what's sad, is that we have a young, energetic, historic team with several future hall of famers, and yet we're 8th in attendance. Heck, even the Rockies have a higher average attendance than us. We won't be able to sustain the team if the fans don't show up in full force.
     
  13. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Don’t look at numbers look at percentage of capacity. They are selling 84 pence to of their inventory. Nobody is doing much better.
     
  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros are doomed. Astros might not tie the record for most consecutive 100-win seasons.
     
  15. awc713

    awc713 Member
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    5 year outlook:

    2019: WS win
    2020: WS win
    21: WS win
    22: WS win
    23: league folds
     
  16. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast
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    It's obviously time to trade Greinke, Brantley and Yuli, according to the bbs.
     
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  17. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Gerrit Cole ain’t leaving and the Astros will do whatever it takes to sign him. If that means someone else has to go then so be it. The dude loves being an Astro. He ain’t going anywhere. Luhnow will make the money work. Springer is getting extended also.
     
  18. Major

    Major Member

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    Coors Field holds almost 10,000 more people than Minute Maid...
     
  19. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I would be beyond shocked if Cole happened. Have now
    Flipped my opinion to Springer more likely to re-sign than not.
     
  20. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    And Houston has almost double the population of the Denver metro area. Is it a matter of people not going because there aren't enough good seats?
     
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